Even before Donald trump won the US Presidential election, some people were exploring what it might mean in the longer term.
History tells us what may happen next with Brexit & Trump by Tobias Sone, 23 Jun 2016
A new information dark age by Phil Bradley
END
Friday, 28 April 2017
Wednesday, 26 April 2017
Prison Crisis in UK 2017
The UK prison service is in crisis. Nearly 40% of young adult inmates spend less than ten hours a day out of their cells. Fewer than half of prisons provide adequate 'purposeful activity'. Boredom increases drug use. Self-harm and suicides in prison are increasing.
Current sentencing is based on symbolic severity of the offense committed; sentencing guidelines are arbitrary and often exessive. Politicians believe in deterrence, so increase maximum sentences rather than increasing the probability of being caught. Punishment for its own sake makes people think of themselves, not their victims.
Offenders already have problems. Up to 75% are illiterate, innumerate or without qualifications. Many have spent their childhoods in care, experienced abuse or seen violence in the home. Many also have mental health problems, which can be made worse by imprisonment. Women are more affected than men. [See also my post on new findings on criminality and brain development: Age of Criminal Responsibility.)
Larger prisons are more difficult to run. Inevitably they are further from the homes of many prisoners, despite the fact that family contact is important to rehabilitation; prisoners who receive no family visits are 21% more likely to reoffend.
Some 200,000 children in England and Wales have a parent in prison. Locking up too many people for too long wastes money and wastes lives.
Money saved by recent prison closures have not been transferred to the probation service to provide education and training in the community without the damaging effects of imprisonment.
The remedies
# Priority should be 'to do no harm'. As few people as possible should be uprooted from their family, if they have one. As few children as possible should be left fatherless or motherless due to imprisonment.
# Take precautions to prevent crime. Schools should teach children about restorative principles: the reason for not harming another person or community is that it would hurt them - not that you might face punishment if caught.
# Prisons need to be places to provide remedial educational and PSHE (personal, social and health education). Currently this is not possible in overcrowded and understaffed institutions.
# Savings from prison closures should be earmarked for non-custodial programmes (including those for mental health programmes).
# Many victims want not mere 'toughness' but action to make others less likely to be victims. This might include 'restorative justice' where a victim (or surrogate) expresses feelings and asks questions. This can lead to offenders to feel empathy, and motivate them to co-operate with reparation and rehabilitation.
# Ideally we would move to a system that reserved prisons for those with a high risk of reoffending, absconding or non-cooperation with community-based measures.
Source: Martin Wright 'How to tackle the prisons crisis' in the Church Times, 24 Feb. 2017. Martin Wright is a former director of the Howard League and co-editor of Civilising Criminal Justice (Waterside Press, 2013). Figures are taken mainly from the Prison Reform Trust's Prison Factfile, autumn 2016.
Current sentencing is based on symbolic severity of the offense committed; sentencing guidelines are arbitrary and often exessive. Politicians believe in deterrence, so increase maximum sentences rather than increasing the probability of being caught. Punishment for its own sake makes people think of themselves, not their victims.
Offenders already have problems. Up to 75% are illiterate, innumerate or without qualifications. Many have spent their childhoods in care, experienced abuse or seen violence in the home. Many also have mental health problems, which can be made worse by imprisonment. Women are more affected than men. [See also my post on new findings on criminality and brain development: Age of Criminal Responsibility.)
Larger prisons are more difficult to run. Inevitably they are further from the homes of many prisoners, despite the fact that family contact is important to rehabilitation; prisoners who receive no family visits are 21% more likely to reoffend.
Some 200,000 children in England and Wales have a parent in prison. Locking up too many people for too long wastes money and wastes lives.
Money saved by recent prison closures have not been transferred to the probation service to provide education and training in the community without the damaging effects of imprisonment.
The remedies
# Priority should be 'to do no harm'. As few people as possible should be uprooted from their family, if they have one. As few children as possible should be left fatherless or motherless due to imprisonment.
# Take precautions to prevent crime. Schools should teach children about restorative principles: the reason for not harming another person or community is that it would hurt them - not that you might face punishment if caught.
# Prisons need to be places to provide remedial educational and PSHE (personal, social and health education). Currently this is not possible in overcrowded and understaffed institutions.
# Savings from prison closures should be earmarked for non-custodial programmes (including those for mental health programmes).
# Many victims want not mere 'toughness' but action to make others less likely to be victims. This might include 'restorative justice' where a victim (or surrogate) expresses feelings and asks questions. This can lead to offenders to feel empathy, and motivate them to co-operate with reparation and rehabilitation.
# Ideally we would move to a system that reserved prisons for those with a high risk of reoffending, absconding or non-cooperation with community-based measures.
Source: Martin Wright 'How to tackle the prisons crisis' in the Church Times, 24 Feb. 2017. Martin Wright is a former director of the Howard League and co-editor of Civilising Criminal Justice (Waterside Press, 2013). Figures are taken mainly from the Prison Reform Trust's Prison Factfile, autumn 2016.
Monday, 24 April 2017
Dietary Iron
Good sources of iron are:
# Non-haem iron is not so well absorbed (found in plant foods)
# Vitamin C promotes iron absorbtion.
# Foods which have a small negative impact on iron absorbtion: spinach, nuts, chocolate, parsley, rhubarb and dairy products (yoghurt, cheese, milk and eggs).
End
- Liver, beef and lamb
- Clams, mussels and oysters
- Kidney beans
- Leafy green vegetables
- Dried figs and apricots
- Oatmeal and rye
- Brewers yeast
- Soy beans
- Lentils
- Quinoa
- Chickpeas
- Pinto beans
# Non-haem iron is not so well absorbed (found in plant foods)
# Vitamin C promotes iron absorbtion.
# Foods which have a small negative impact on iron absorbtion: spinach, nuts, chocolate, parsley, rhubarb and dairy products (yoghurt, cheese, milk and eggs).
End
Friday, 21 April 2017
How to Cat Nap
A cat nap can be useful if you've had some late nights and need to catch up on sleep, but if you cat nap in your bed you may fall too deeply asleep, which can leave you feeling groggy when you do wake up. Here's a tip to get your cat nap without sleeping too deeply.
- Lie on the floor on your back, legs stretched out in front of you, head on a cushion, placing your hands on your tummy.
- In one of your hands, hold a pencil upright.
- Close your eyes and relax.
- When the pencil drops it will wake you up, reviving and recharging you just enough to get through the rest of the day.
Wednesday, 19 April 2017
The Collapse of Complex Societies
The Collapse of Complex Societies by Joseph Tainter, 1988.
[This book was analysed / reviewed in an article by John Harris in The Guardian. Have not read the book yet, but it sounds interesting.]
Joseph Tainter is a US anthropologist and historian. While The Collapse of Complex Societies looks at historical periods, there are implied parallels with more recent events.
Published in 1988, just before the fall of communism, Tainter argues that one key pattern applies to whole chunks of history, summarised by John Harris thus:. "The way that increasingly complicated systems initially deliver big economic benefits, only for diminishing returns to set in, as systems of power and control become overstretched. Ever-increasing burdens are not matched by material rewards, and popular resentment kicks in."
Tainter focuses on the demise of ancient Rome, the collapse of Mayan civilization in the 9th century, the Minoans and Hittites, and the Chinese Zhou dynasty. JH notes: "He identifies common features of these falls: “revolts and provincial breakaways”, the end of long-distance trade, resource depletion, declining economic growth, and the point when societies are “able to do little more than maintain the status quo”. Currencies become debased; “bridges and roads are not kept up”. Precipitous changes in climate often underlie what happens."
Tainter's thesis is that at certain points in history “declining returns make complexity a less attractive problem-solving strategy”. Under such conditions, the option to “sever the ties that link localised groups to a regional entity” could gain traction. Considered in a global rather than a national view, that could summarise Brexit, and similar movements in Europe.
JH contacted Tainter, who agreed that complexity held the key to a lot of current developments. “JT: The simpler past seems more attractive than today’s complex reality, and so people vote [thanks to] inchoate frustrations. They choose simplicity and locality over complexity; identity over internationalism. Politicians promote themselves by giving voice to this. Hence, in addition to Brexit, we have calls for Scottish independence, Catalan independence, and so forth.”
While imminent social collapse seems unlikely, JT writes: “Civilisations are fragile, impermanent things.” And while he says that "It’s a common belief, that our technological capacity, energy resources and our knowledge of economics and history mean our civilisation should be able to survive “whatever crises ancient and simpler societies found insurmountable”, he also says we should remember the German classicist Ulrich von Wilamowitz-Moellendorff’s view of the lessons of the Roman empire: “Civilisation can die, because it has already died once.”
Source: John Harris, The Lesson of Trump and Brexit: a society too complex for its people risks everything in The Guardian, 29 Dec. 2016. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/dec/29/trump-brexit-society-complex-people-populists
[This book was analysed / reviewed in an article by John Harris in The Guardian. Have not read the book yet, but it sounds interesting.]
Joseph Tainter is a US anthropologist and historian. While The Collapse of Complex Societies looks at historical periods, there are implied parallels with more recent events.
Published in 1988, just before the fall of communism, Tainter argues that one key pattern applies to whole chunks of history, summarised by John Harris thus:. "The way that increasingly complicated systems initially deliver big economic benefits, only for diminishing returns to set in, as systems of power and control become overstretched. Ever-increasing burdens are not matched by material rewards, and popular resentment kicks in."
Tainter focuses on the demise of ancient Rome, the collapse of Mayan civilization in the 9th century, the Minoans and Hittites, and the Chinese Zhou dynasty. JH notes: "He identifies common features of these falls: “revolts and provincial breakaways”, the end of long-distance trade, resource depletion, declining economic growth, and the point when societies are “able to do little more than maintain the status quo”. Currencies become debased; “bridges and roads are not kept up”. Precipitous changes in climate often underlie what happens."
Tainter's thesis is that at certain points in history “declining returns make complexity a less attractive problem-solving strategy”. Under such conditions, the option to “sever the ties that link localised groups to a regional entity” could gain traction. Considered in a global rather than a national view, that could summarise Brexit, and similar movements in Europe.
JH contacted Tainter, who agreed that complexity held the key to a lot of current developments. “JT: The simpler past seems more attractive than today’s complex reality, and so people vote [thanks to] inchoate frustrations. They choose simplicity and locality over complexity; identity over internationalism. Politicians promote themselves by giving voice to this. Hence, in addition to Brexit, we have calls for Scottish independence, Catalan independence, and so forth.”
While imminent social collapse seems unlikely, JT writes: “Civilisations are fragile, impermanent things.” And while he says that "It’s a common belief, that our technological capacity, energy resources and our knowledge of economics and history mean our civilisation should be able to survive “whatever crises ancient and simpler societies found insurmountable”, he also says we should remember the German classicist Ulrich von Wilamowitz-Moellendorff’s view of the lessons of the Roman empire: “Civilisation can die, because it has already died once.”
Source: John Harris, The Lesson of Trump and Brexit: a society too complex for its people risks everything in The Guardian, 29 Dec. 2016. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/dec/29/trump-brexit-society-complex-people-populists
Monday, 17 April 2017
Fixing Globalisation
Globalism - good or bad?
Bretton Woods (the system of monetary management established the rules for commercial and financial relations among the United States, Canada, Western Europe, Australia and Japan in the mid-20th century) was developed post WW2, when the US had large surpluses that went overseas - until the surpluses stopped.
The US intention to invest in retraining people who lost their jobs was never carried out - these people remained less employable.
Skills not needed. Chinese approach to over-capacity was to train workers and create new start-up jobs, a guaranteed basic wage, and looking after migrant workers.
It is quicker to close down a factory in the UK due to poor labour laws (can be as little as 45 days), than to close a factory in France or Germany, which can take years.
Companies now focus on shareholder interests, but the majority of shares in UK companies are held overseas, often for only a few months before being sold on. Companies should have workers on their boards - the UK is the odd one in not having such representation.
A future for globalisation needs to work better for those who lose out, and needs to stimulate world trade in order to avoid extremism and mass migration.
Source: Radio 4 programme series New World - episode Fixing Globalisation broadcast Fri. 6th Jan. 2017. Listen now http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b086s822 or download podcast for later listening http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p04nglqv, but not sure how long these will be available.
- It can be a force for good overall, but there have been losers (often the lower middle classes) who now feel they have nothing to lose by challenging it.
- 'Right wing liberalism' is perceived as elitist - need to find a new label to save globalisation.
- Hyper globalisation is in crisis - need to return to globalisation.
Bretton Woods (the system of monetary management established the rules for commercial and financial relations among the United States, Canada, Western Europe, Australia and Japan in the mid-20th century) was developed post WW2, when the US had large surpluses that went overseas - until the surpluses stopped.
The US intention to invest in retraining people who lost their jobs was never carried out - these people remained less employable.
Skills not needed. Chinese approach to over-capacity was to train workers and create new start-up jobs, a guaranteed basic wage, and looking after migrant workers.
It is quicker to close down a factory in the UK due to poor labour laws (can be as little as 45 days), than to close a factory in France or Germany, which can take years.
Companies now focus on shareholder interests, but the majority of shares in UK companies are held overseas, often for only a few months before being sold on. Companies should have workers on their boards - the UK is the odd one in not having such representation.
A future for globalisation needs to work better for those who lose out, and needs to stimulate world trade in order to avoid extremism and mass migration.
Source: Radio 4 programme series New World - episode Fixing Globalisation broadcast Fri. 6th Jan. 2017. Listen now http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b086s822 or download podcast for later listening http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p04nglqv, but not sure how long these will be available.
Friday, 14 April 2017
How Politicians' Character Flaws Influenced Brexit
Ros Coward in The Guardian explains how character flaws in our politicians helped the Brexit vote.
The consensus about the Brexit result is that it expressed resentment about how politicians had driven forward social changes without the consent of the affected communities. While this is part of the reason, it was helped along by misjudgements based on the character flaws of the leaders.
Tony Blair’s hubris about the Middle East discredited his centre-left politics.
The fratricidal competitiveness of Ed Milliband helped to deprive Labour of victory and a platform to rebuild the centre-left.
Nick Clegg’s abandonment of the student fees pledge, his 'class chemistry' with David Cameron and his evident liking for his position caused him to massively disappoint his voters – a move that in effect wiped out the Liberal Democrats.
Cameron was left unchallenged except by his own right wing. His laziness and lack of attention to detail made him supremely confident about the referendum, relying on electoral “reasonableness”.
After Cameron's resignation, Michael Gove and Boris Johnson seemed to be more concerned with becoming Prime Minister, with delusions about their own strategic cleverness. Johnson reflected the popular mood, echoing and manipulating the popular press, and got the result he almost certainly didn’t want. His stricken face on Brexit morning suggested he had really sought to be the “unifying” leader in a close Remain vote. Gove’s downfall came from opportunism, disloyalty, and an overestimation of his ability to outmanoeuvre Johnson.
What of the future? Theresa May is a secretive and controlling prime minister in charge of the biggest team of negotiators to be assembled since the 1945 peace conferences. For a negotiation unwanted by a significant proportion of the electorate, who need to be won over, it doesn’t inspire confidence. Jeremy Corbyn's vanity stopped him from turning down the leadership, a position for which he was clearly unsuited. We need leaders who can see the wider picture. Policies are vital, but character is more important than ever. Start worrying.
Source: People voted Brexit, but Cameron, Blair and other flawed leaders made it possible by Ros Coward in The Guardian, 28 Dec. 2016.
The consensus about the Brexit result is that it expressed resentment about how politicians had driven forward social changes without the consent of the affected communities. While this is part of the reason, it was helped along by misjudgements based on the character flaws of the leaders.
Tony Blair’s hubris about the Middle East discredited his centre-left politics.
The fratricidal competitiveness of Ed Milliband helped to deprive Labour of victory and a platform to rebuild the centre-left.
Nick Clegg’s abandonment of the student fees pledge, his 'class chemistry' with David Cameron and his evident liking for his position caused him to massively disappoint his voters – a move that in effect wiped out the Liberal Democrats.
Cameron was left unchallenged except by his own right wing. His laziness and lack of attention to detail made him supremely confident about the referendum, relying on electoral “reasonableness”.
After Cameron's resignation, Michael Gove and Boris Johnson seemed to be more concerned with becoming Prime Minister, with delusions about their own strategic cleverness. Johnson reflected the popular mood, echoing and manipulating the popular press, and got the result he almost certainly didn’t want. His stricken face on Brexit morning suggested he had really sought to be the “unifying” leader in a close Remain vote. Gove’s downfall came from opportunism, disloyalty, and an overestimation of his ability to outmanoeuvre Johnson.
What of the future? Theresa May is a secretive and controlling prime minister in charge of the biggest team of negotiators to be assembled since the 1945 peace conferences. For a negotiation unwanted by a significant proportion of the electorate, who need to be won over, it doesn’t inspire confidence. Jeremy Corbyn's vanity stopped him from turning down the leadership, a position for which he was clearly unsuited. We need leaders who can see the wider picture. Policies are vital, but character is more important than ever. Start worrying.
Source: People voted Brexit, but Cameron, Blair and other flawed leaders made it possible by Ros Coward in The Guardian, 28 Dec. 2016.
Wednesday, 12 April 2017
How to Fold a Fitted Bedsheet
Having trouble folding a fitted bedsheet? Here's a simple way to do it.
And here's a link to an article about how to fold other tricky items like hoodies, t-shirts, towels (like they do in hotels), shirts, jeans, and jumpers.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-7558605/Handy-folding-tips-reveal-correct-way-tackle-tricky-items-including-fitted-sheets-hoodies.html
END
- Open out sheet on a flat surface - a table or even the bed will do.
- Bring the bottom corners up and tuck into the top corners, flattening and neatening any folds.
- Fold the sheet in half. Bring the left hand corner to meet the right, turning it inside out and tucking it into the right hand corner.
- Neaten the sheet, then fold in half again, left to right.
- Flatten the sheet again, then fold into thirds.
And here's a link to an article about how to fold other tricky items like hoodies, t-shirts, towels (like they do in hotels), shirts, jeans, and jumpers.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-7558605/Handy-folding-tips-reveal-correct-way-tackle-tricky-items-including-fitted-sheets-hoodies.html
END
Monday, 10 April 2017
Us Versus Them
2016 has seen a sharp rise in 'populist politics'.
Most people are slow to change, and want security and certainty. Economic and social change causes uncertainty, fear and anxiety.
People feel they are not listened too. Dangerously there is a growing tide of misinformation (e.g. Boris Johnson's newspaper column that deliberately and falsely claimed that the EU banned curved bananas and cucumbers) that is taken as truth. There is a growing feeling of anti-elitism, especially against international elites. Fear and anger are channelled against scapegoats - bankers, migrants.
Populists claim that bringing back manufacturing and heavy industry to their countries is the answer. This ignores or does not realise that global changes mean this will not happen.
Us and Them leads to racism, the perception of 'too many' [of another nationality, migrants, another religion] being the cause. Labelling them 'racist' can be counterproductive; the working class has been called 'racist' so often, they become desensitised to its condemnation and the word now has less impact. They also often state that they have good relations with specific individuals - e.g. neighbours - and they feel this means they are not racist.
We need a new form of liberalism that is more sensitive to feelings, especially as recent changes in culture (LGBT, gender rights, etc.) have been fast. These have provoked a backlash from the less-educated.
Current issues over identity, control over borders, and the economy, risk us going back to nationalism and the win/lose politics of the 1930s - the ugly populism.
Source: Radio 4 programme series New World - episode Us Versus Them broadcast Wed. 4th Jan. 2017. Listen now http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b086s60b or download podcast for later listening http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p04m7t49, but not sure how long these will be available.
Most people are slow to change, and want security and certainty. Economic and social change causes uncertainty, fear and anxiety.
People feel they are not listened too. Dangerously there is a growing tide of misinformation (e.g. Boris Johnson's newspaper column that deliberately and falsely claimed that the EU banned curved bananas and cucumbers) that is taken as truth. There is a growing feeling of anti-elitism, especially against international elites. Fear and anger are channelled against scapegoats - bankers, migrants.
Populists claim that bringing back manufacturing and heavy industry to their countries is the answer. This ignores or does not realise that global changes mean this will not happen.
Us and Them leads to racism, the perception of 'too many' [of another nationality, migrants, another religion] being the cause. Labelling them 'racist' can be counterproductive; the working class has been called 'racist' so often, they become desensitised to its condemnation and the word now has less impact. They also often state that they have good relations with specific individuals - e.g. neighbours - and they feel this means they are not racist.
We need a new form of liberalism that is more sensitive to feelings, especially as recent changes in culture (LGBT, gender rights, etc.) have been fast. These have provoked a backlash from the less-educated.
Current issues over identity, control over borders, and the economy, risk us going back to nationalism and the win/lose politics of the 1930s - the ugly populism.
Source: Radio 4 programme series New World - episode Us Versus Them broadcast Wed. 4th Jan. 2017. Listen now http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b086s60b or download podcast for later listening http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p04m7t49, but not sure how long these will be available.
Friday, 7 April 2017
Axis of Power
For the past 25 years, the US has been the dominant world power. Now that we face a more assertive China and Russia, it is likely there will be more international tensions and the likelihood of military conflict is high. Chinese purchasing power now equals that of the US.
In 1900 Britian with its Empire was a dominant power. In 1940 the US and Russia battled for supremacy. In 2017, Asia and China are rising.
Nuclear Issues
In 1900 Britian with its Empire was a dominant power. In 1940 the US and Russia battled for supremacy. In 2017, Asia and China are rising.
- However, the US has not noticed that their power is waning - Donald Trump and the Washington elite believe that the US must maintain military dominance.
- Trump believes that China has benefitted in trade over the US.
- Japan is taking an increasingly dark view of Chinese motivation to address old grievances (the two are old rivals). Other Asian countries are also concerned.
- Chinese island building policy - potential impact on international shipping.
- People are increasingly favouring 'strong' leaders.
- Nationalism is on the rise in both China and Japan, especially among young people: this is worrying since what you believe at ages 15 to 25 is likely to stay your view life-long.
- North Korea is politically unstable.
- China and Russia have similar attitudes on various issues, so there is an element of 'entente'.
Nuclear Issues
- Military might is crucial to Russian power, but there is a population decline. Tensions in the Crimea and Ukraine.
- Nuclear weapons are again an issue.
- Cyber warfare: Russian hacking may be a payback for Clinton's questioning of validity of recent Russian Duma elections.
Wednesday, 5 April 2017
Nothing But The Truth
Do the facts actually matter to voters or politicians? What does post-truth mean?
1. Organs of mass deception. Truth was spun and 'sexed up' in 2002 over Saddam Hussein's supposed weapons of mass destruction. An expectation of what was the truth was not supported by the facts. This illustrates the 'feelings first, rationalising afterwards' process. Emotions and feelings trump facts and resist correction. Confronted with views opposing their own, people will persuade themselves that things are not true. We are all vulnerable to this process.
A US experiment presented the same data as being either on skin cream effectiveness or on gun control issues. Numerate Republicans and Democrats agreed on the evidence-based conclusions for the skin cream scenario. However, equally numerate Republicans and Democrats came to different conclusions about the gun control scenario, with political tendencies over-riding actual correct conclusions.
2. When is a fact not a fact? We have gut feelings and can struggle with values versus facts. (a) Is the UK in the EU? An everyday truth. (b) How much does the EU cost? There are many answers, depending on which data is included. (c) Is it good for us to be in the EU? No one answer, as it depends on your values and circumstances.
People now feel they can decide things, and that facts don't carry weight. 'Trump echoes feelings'.
3. What has changed? The Internet has. Narcissus and Echo effects. Social media has changed how we get our news. Echo chambers - we only encounter facts and opinions that reflect our own. Social media algorithms feed you similar views to your own. Physical location and selective migration. People may move to areas with a majority of people of like mind (regions & cities in UK, states in US). Psychological geography research indicates that certain personality traits are more pronounced in certain areas: in the UK, openness in London and the West Country, traditional in Conservative-voting areas in the South and on the South Coast, neuroticism (anxiety, worry) in Labour areas in Wales and Central England. This means more likely to meet people of like minds.
Getting doubt into echo chambers may help balance views, but can easily backfire and reinforce beliefs.
4. An inside job. Climate change is well supported scientifically world-wide. In the US, politically split support regardless of facts. Not an information deficit, but a language deficit. The tribe of affinity. If US military had agreed there was a problem, rather than economists proposing taxes to make changes, Republicans would have been on board.
5. Tall tales. An experiment used a fictitious story about a jewellery theft. The wealthy owneres had family jewellery stolen, and police concluded it was an inside job. First the gardener was arrested. Then he was released without charge. Then the butler was arrested. If people were only told the story up to the gardener being released, for some people doubt remained as to his innocence. It was only when someone else was arrested that those people were convinced of the gardener's innocence.
Conclusions: There is a lack of trust if not exposed to other views. Get out of the echo chamber - ask the opinion of someone you dislike and don't interrupt them.
Source: Radio 4 programme series New World - episode Nothing But The Truth broadcast Mon. 2nd Jan. 2017. Listen now http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b086nzlg or download podcast for later listening http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p04m7zrs, but not sure how long these will be available.
1. Organs of mass deception. Truth was spun and 'sexed up' in 2002 over Saddam Hussein's supposed weapons of mass destruction. An expectation of what was the truth was not supported by the facts. This illustrates the 'feelings first, rationalising afterwards' process. Emotions and feelings trump facts and resist correction. Confronted with views opposing their own, people will persuade themselves that things are not true. We are all vulnerable to this process.
A US experiment presented the same data as being either on skin cream effectiveness or on gun control issues. Numerate Republicans and Democrats agreed on the evidence-based conclusions for the skin cream scenario. However, equally numerate Republicans and Democrats came to different conclusions about the gun control scenario, with political tendencies over-riding actual correct conclusions.
2. When is a fact not a fact? We have gut feelings and can struggle with values versus facts. (a) Is the UK in the EU? An everyday truth. (b) How much does the EU cost? There are many answers, depending on which data is included. (c) Is it good for us to be in the EU? No one answer, as it depends on your values and circumstances.
People now feel they can decide things, and that facts don't carry weight. 'Trump echoes feelings'.
3. What has changed? The Internet has. Narcissus and Echo effects. Social media has changed how we get our news. Echo chambers - we only encounter facts and opinions that reflect our own. Social media algorithms feed you similar views to your own. Physical location and selective migration. People may move to areas with a majority of people of like mind (regions & cities in UK, states in US). Psychological geography research indicates that certain personality traits are more pronounced in certain areas: in the UK, openness in London and the West Country, traditional in Conservative-voting areas in the South and on the South Coast, neuroticism (anxiety, worry) in Labour areas in Wales and Central England. This means more likely to meet people of like minds.
Getting doubt into echo chambers may help balance views, but can easily backfire and reinforce beliefs.
4. An inside job. Climate change is well supported scientifically world-wide. In the US, politically split support regardless of facts. Not an information deficit, but a language deficit. The tribe of affinity. If US military had agreed there was a problem, rather than economists proposing taxes to make changes, Republicans would have been on board.
5. Tall tales. An experiment used a fictitious story about a jewellery theft. The wealthy owneres had family jewellery stolen, and police concluded it was an inside job. First the gardener was arrested. Then he was released without charge. Then the butler was arrested. If people were only told the story up to the gardener being released, for some people doubt remained as to his innocence. It was only when someone else was arrested that those people were convinced of the gardener's innocence.
Conclusions: There is a lack of trust if not exposed to other views. Get out of the echo chamber - ask the opinion of someone you dislike and don't interrupt them.
Source: Radio 4 programme series New World - episode Nothing But The Truth broadcast Mon. 2nd Jan. 2017. Listen now http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b086nzlg or download podcast for later listening http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p04m7zrs, but not sure how long these will be available.
Monday, 3 April 2017
Opinion Poll Issues
Opinion polls in the UK 2015 General Election and 2016 EU Referendum failed to accurately predict the results, and in the US there is concern that they are nat accurately reflecting opinion in the 2016 Presidential election. Why might this be?
The British Election Survey conducted a poll of 3,000 adults after the 2015 Election accurately reported a seven per cent lead by the Conservatives over Labour, while pre-election polls predicted the two parties would get the same percentage.
The BES data was collected – at considerable cost – by going out and knocking on doors. It sheds valuable new light on who was undersampled in the pre-election polls.
The new thought is that opinion polls are not currently choosing representative samples.
The British Election Survey conducted a poll of 3,000 adults after the 2015 Election accurately reported a seven per cent lead by the Conservatives over Labour, while pre-election polls predicted the two parties would get the same percentage.
The BES data was collected – at considerable cost – by going out and knocking on doors. It sheds valuable new light on who was undersampled in the pre-election polls.
The new thought is that opinion polls are not currently choosing representative samples.
- Online polling draws samples from large panels of volunteers. Not everyone puts themselves forward to take part, and those who do will not be representative.
- Landline polling is less useful as many households are increasingly reluctant to pick up their landline, and fewer households actually have a landline unless is it used for Internet access.
- Mobile phones are used by many people, and a growing proportion of young people in particular rely exclusively on them. There is no exhaustive database of mobile numbers to draw on, and there is no consensus among the pollsters on a comprehensive and cost-effective way to factor mobiles into the mix.
- The BES study identified the crucial missing group as non-voters, and particularly younger non-voters. It found 43% of the under 30s saying they didn’t vote, whereas among the less representative young people in the pre-election polls, 15% or fewer sometimes identified themselves as non-voters.
- Opinion pollsters are very good at making their samples reflect the general population. But the general population and the electorate are very different things, because around 40% of adults don’t vote. This means there are far too many young voters in polling samples, and not enough young non-voters.
- While poll modelling looks at people who might be under represented, who might not be picked up by telephone or online polling, many of the people who voted for Trump in the Republican primaries had been lost to the political process for years, so are probably not part of an opinion pollster's sampling group.
- There is also the phenomenon of the 'shy' supporter, people who are unwilling to state a preference for controversial nominees.
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