Friday, 18 December 2020

NHS Facts and Claims During Elections

During campaigning for elections, politicians make claims about their performance, the opposition performance and how they will make things better. So here are a few from recent elections from Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn.

BJ: Claim: We'll get 40 new hospitals. False: Tory plans for £2.7 billion for 6 hospitals over 5 years, plus £100 million for 34 hospitals to start developing plans.

JC: Claim: Cancer treatment times have risen. Correct: First treatment within 62 days of GP referral is down from 86% in 2010 to 79% now.

BJ: Claim: Cancer survival rates have increased since 2010. Correct but not due to Tories. Surviving one year after diagnosis improved from 2010 (70%) to 2016 (73%). The same increase of 3% happened between 2004 and 2010.

JC: Claim: NHS has had the largest squeeze in its history (i.e. since 1949). Correct: The NHS budget has never fallen under any government, with an average rise of 3.6% p.a. But between 2010 and 2018 it rose just 1.3% on average. In 2018 announced an annual increase over the next five years of 3.4%.

BJ: Claim: There are 17,000 more NHS doctors and nurses than in 2010. Correct.

JC: Claim: There are currently 43,000 nursing vacancies. The UK needs around 60,000 more nurses to cope with an increasingly aged population. Correct.

BJ: Claim: Missed NHS targets in Wales (Labour led government.) Correct. (JC stated that the problems in Wales stem from Conservative cuts to the Welsh budget, and in real terms spending won't return to 2010 levels until around 2023.)
JC: Claim: Missed NHS targets in England (Conservative led government.) Correct.
Both parties cherry picked which figures to publicise. The target of 95% of arrivals in A&E being seen within four hours has not been met in England since 2015, and in Wales since 2008.

Tory Pledge: Train 500 more GPs per year. (Their previous pledge was to recruit an extra 5,000! In fact there was an increase of just 272 between 2015 and 2018. and the 2019 pledge of 500 was not met in 2020.)

JC: Claim: Regarding Brexit and trade deals - fears over a Trump deal wanting access to the NHS.
BJ: Claim: Said the NHS would be protected. (My note: Why should we believe someone who has lied in the past?)

END