Sunday, 25 April 2021

What Divided 2019 British Voters Most

The 2019 UK General Election is the third in a row when the older generations played a major role in securing a Conservative victory, with a vote share of more than 60% in 2019. Labour's share of the vote fell among the over-65's from 31% in 2010, to 24% in 2017 and under 20% in 2019. This is in contrast to the period between 1987 and 2010, during which the Conservatives never scored higher than 48% among over-65's, while Labour never scored lower than 31%. 

In "red wall" constituencies in the north Labour did badly. Many are former coal mining areas that failed to find alternative sources of employment over 35 years. In those that do have high employment levels jobs often pay minimum wage or not much above. Young people tend to move away and leave older people behind. Like older generations elsewhere they did go for Brexit, but beyond this they put cultural issues higher than economic ones, plus Conservative promises of higher spending on the NHS.

Poverty and cost of living were important for young voters. In contrast, immigration was a bigger issue for over-65s (almost 20%) than the 18-24 age group (less than 5%). The dramatic rise of pensioner income over the past 30 years means that a tiny minority of older people need to worry about income.

In order to win an election majority a political party will need to look at the issues for different age groups. Climate change was the most important issue for 32% of the 18-24 age group but only 13% of over-65's. If climate change is the most important thing for a party, then policies should be designed to protect older people. And likewise for other issues.

Source: Age, not class, is now what divides British voters most by Philip Inman in The Guardian, 21 Dec. 2019