The daily reporting of confirmed cases and deaths can give us a distorted view of the current position, so here are some facts about what is reported and other ways of looking at the data.
The truth about vaccines.
- Fertility is not affected by any vaccine (Covid-19, flu, measles or any other vaccine).
- Covid vaccines are safe for pregnant women.
- All vaccines have undergone rigorous testing for safety and clinical trials.
- No stages of testing have been omitted, but the usual gap between stages to get funding for the next stage has not been needed. So the process has been faster.
- Vaccine shots cannot be used to deliver microchips into the body.
Daily Case Figure (confirmed by positive test)
- (A) The least reliable figure, as it only includes those testing positive using the government testing scheme. Typically symptoms would be obvious. (B) The better figure comes from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) testing of a sample of a representative proportion of the population which picks up mild (usually asymptomatic) cases that would not otherwise be tested.
- Regular testing in schools found more (usually asymptomatic) cases which would otherwise not be identified. Aug. 2021: 40% to 50% of children (under 18) have already been infected. Most were not ill, or particularly ill.
- Spring 2022. March: Tests no longer required when entering the country from abroad. April: Free mass testing ended but still available for symptomatic cases in specific categories of people, which include the following. NHS staff and in-patients, staff and residents in care homes, supported living and adult day care, staff and patients in hospices, staff and detainees in prisons and staff and users of high-risk domestic abuse refuges and homelessness settings. When cases are high, asymptomatic testing will also be carried out these settings.
Hospital admissions
- These are falling due to a combination of lockdown restrictions and the increasing proportion of the population who who been vaccinated.
- August 2021: A fifth of hospital admissions are now in age range 18 to 34. This group has low vaccination rate.
Daily Death Figures
- Actually the registration of a death, which may have occurred several days earlier.
- Reflect infections from 3 to 6 weeks earlier. (So deaths reported end of May typically relate to infections in early April to mid-May.)
- Between March and July 2020, Covid deaths in England were somewhat over-reported, due to the inclusion of people infected some time prior to death, who actually died of another cause (e.g. road traffic deaths or other conditions).
- 8th Dec. 2020: UK starts Pfizer/BioNTech vaccinations. Immunity builds from day 12; second dose day 21, full immunity day 28.
- 4th Jan. 2021: UK starts Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccinations.
- Jan. 2021: Second doses to be given at 12 weeks, enabling more people to have first dose.
- Jan. 2021: Vaccination vials hold slightly more than stated number of doses. Careful draw down and use of finer needles can often provide an additional dose.
- Sep. 2021: Vaccination programme (one dose only) extended to ages 16-18
- Oct. 2021: Vaccination programme (one dose only) extended to ages 12-15.
- Oct. 2021: Booster 3rd dose given 6 months after 2nd dose.: front-line health and care workers, those 16+ with a health condition that places them at high risk, and those over 65 (later changed to those over 50)
- March 2022: Booster 4th dose given to those over 75.
Proportion of population first vaccination doses
- 1.17% of population 30 Dec. 2020
- 24% of population 27 Feb. 2021
- 85.5% of adults 02 July 2021 (66.31% of population)
- 93% of over 12's 25 May 2022
Proportion of population second vaccination doses
- 0.73% of population 03 Feb. 2021
- 9.9% of adults 02 Apr. 2021
- 63.1% of adults 02 July 2021 (49% of population)
- 86.9% of over 12's 25 May 2022
- 21.2% of over 12's 13 Nov 2021
- 60.1% of over 12's 05 Jan. 2022
- 68.2% of over 12's 25 May 2022
UK cases confirmed by testing
- Jan to end of May 2020: Substantial under-reporting of mild and no symptom cases, as testing largely restricted to hospital staff and patients.
- March 2021: Schools re-open with regular lateral flow rapid tests for children. May explain new cases plateauing this month,, instead of the hoped for continued reduction.
- 28 Feb. 2022: Under-reporting continues as (a) those without symptoms mostly do not have tests and (b) free lateral flow tests are now discontinued.
- 6th June 2020: 284,868 (0.42% of the population).
- 31 Dec. 2020: 2,488,780 (3.36% of the population)
- 31st Mar. 2021: 4.35 m (6.4% of the population)
- 28th Feb. 2022: 18,985,568 (27.7% of the population)
- 6th June 2020: 40,465 (0.059% of the population).
Early Covid-19 death reports: A positive test within 28 days before death in Scotland, Wales & Northern Ireland. England initially included deaths with any positive test to avoid underestimating such deaths. From August 2020, England also limited to positive test within 28 days before death. - 1st July 2020: 43,730 (0.064% of the population).
- 31 Dec. 2020: 73,512 (0.10% of the population; 2.95% of cases.)
- 31st Mar. 2021: 126,764 (0.18% of the population; 2.9% of cases)
Nov. 2020: Deaths in England are overwhelmingly in the elderly (53.7% were over 80) and those with pre-existing conditions (95.6% had at least one pre-existing condition). Just 42 deaths were aged under 40 without an existing serious medical condition (which include diabetes and dementia, both of which make someone vulnerable to any viral infection).
Office of National Statistics (ONS) infection rate estimates
The ONS carries out regular random sampling of the UK population for coronavirus infections. This figure is higher than the positive test figures reported above. This is because the ONS samples include positive test results from people with no symptoms or mild symptoms who have not requested a test. It therefore gives a more accurate picture of the scale of infection in the UK than the reported daily figures.
- July (final week) estimated 3,200 infections per day.
- August (first week) estimated 4,200 infections per day. (Govt. 7-day average of cases is 789 cases per day.)
- August 2020 the ONS data showed big regional variations ranging from the low in the South West (3%) and Yorkshire (4%) , while London was much higher at nearly 10%.
- August 2020 Imperial College London data indicated an overall UK figure of 6%, with London registering 13%.
- December 2020: ONS data indicates 1 in 8 people (12.5%) in England have had the virus, 1 in 10 (10%) in Wales and 1 in 11 (9%) in Scotland.
- 4 Aug. 2020: Number of deaths from all causes in a single week has stayed below the 5-year average for six weeks in a row. This continued to be the case until mid September.
- 4 Aug. 2020: Of the total deaths reported for week 17-24 July, just 231 involved coronavirus infections out of a total of 10,142 (that is 2.3% of the total).
- This began in mid to late September in the UK. It appears to have been driven by people in their teens and 20's catching and spreading the virus when schools and universities re-opened.
- 21 Oct. 2020, rates among the young now declining in almost every region of the country, but rising in older age groups, initially in the 30 to 40 year group, but starting to affect the older age groups too.
Variants
- The H69/V70 variant appears to be more transmissable, resulting in fast rises in case numbers in London and the South East. Another variant first identified in South Africa is also causing concern.
- Variant Omicron reported from South Africa on 24 Nov. 2021. It has an unusually large number of mutations which make it more transmissible, and is now present in many countries. So far cases are mild and few require hospitalisation. Symptoms are more like a common cold.
END
