Irrationality

Irrationality: the enemy within by Stuart Sutherland
[Published by Pinter & Martin Ltd.; 20th anniversary ed edition (30 July 2013)]

A very revealing read.The blue headings give the chapter titles, the text the points that struck me as most important.

Wrong impressions: Judging by the first thing that comes to mind. Publicity can influence jusgement; contrary to popular belief you are 40 time more likely to die in 1 hour cycling on main roads than in 1 hour of fairground rides. First encounters colour later assessments - first time you meet someone who is in a bad mood, you keep that impression even when later they are pleasant. Good looking people often thought to have better mind, sense of humour, athletic ability, but there is no actual correlation. Exam scripts tend to be marked higher with good handwriting and if examinee name shows they are male.

Obedience: USA Milgram experiment giving electric shocks showed ingrained obedience to authority even when this involves hurting other people. Junior doctors would not voice disagreement of treatment decisions by a more senior doctor. Massacres carried out by people with strong training in obedience and initial orders given by someone removed from the actual scene.

Conformity: In group situations we are more likely to agree with the opinions of others who speak first, even if we first had doubts. A decision publicly announced is more likely to be acted on - a factor in success of weightwatchers and addiction help groups.

Crowd panic: If all behave in an orderly way, more will be saved; there is less panic if someone in authority is present. Panic spreads - seeing others push makes you feel you can/should too. Systematic and pointless violence common in crowds (lynch mobs, football supporters). Also when several people in a situation that needs help, each feels less responsibility than if they were alone.

In groups and out groups: Group attitudes are more extreme than those of individuals. Leaders pick advisors and assistants of similar views, but not those of higher intelligence and speaking skills. Groups find ways to identify themselves (clothing, hairstyles) and may come to dislike or despise other groups. prejudice usually accompanied by use of stereotypes, noticing what supports already held views.

Organisational folly: Following traditional practice is easy, changing things is harder. Promotion may be by seniority and a job for life. Organisational structure may encourage overspending - the sum allocated for a year depends on the amount spent last year. Companies often hang on to loss making sections.

Misplaced loyalty: Look at several houses, choose one and buy it, then need to justify commitment so exagerate good points and minimise bad points, only acknowledging these is major defects or problems occur. Refusal to abandon a useless project in which a (often large) sum of money has been invested.

Misuse of rewards and punishments: Being rewarded for doing an activity may give less incentive to do the activity unless a reward is given. Those who win prizes may come to work less hard subsequently; those who lose experience failure. Pupils learn best when remarks are to help improve. Better results from surgery when people have participated in decisions.

Drive and emotion: Stress, rewards, punishments and strong emotions reduce flexibility in thinking. With piece work, concentrate on quality not quantity.

Ignoring the evidence: People tend to seek confirmation of a view or theory but should be trying to disprove it.

Distorting evidence: Two groups given results of studies that supported both views thought the studies favouring their view were more convincing and better conducted.

Making a wrong connection: Psycholanalysis is still used despite evidence it is useless; simply having someone listen to you does as well as therapy. In making a decision you need to know (1) A+B, (2) A but not B), (3) B but not A, and (4) neither A nor B.

Mistaken connections: Evidence shows telling patients what to expect (length of operation, pain they might experience) means they complain less about pain, need fewer sedatives and recover more quickly.

Mistaking the cause: Earlier correlations between (a) eating saturated fats and blood cholesterol levels and (b) personality types and heart attacks are not as strong as it was thought.

Misinterpreting data: Heavy smoking increases the risk of death from lung cancer by ten, but for every death from cancer, two will die from heart disease. The bigger the sample, the more likely it will reflect true frequency.

Inconsistent decisions and bad bets: To identify a car fault, a mechanic should know the probability of each fault and how long it takes to find and check high probability and low time faults first. When giving opinion on 4 or 5 point scale, most people favour the middle points.

Overconfidence: 95% of UK motorists thought they were better than average drivers. Most people think they will live longer than the average.

Risks: Failure to take into account the limitations of the human operator (e.g. poor design of dials and screens). In UK compulsory seat belt wearing reduced deaths of car occupants but increased risk to pedestrians and cyclists as drivers took more risks.

False inferences: Trainee pilots praised for very good flight did less well on next flight; those reprimanded for very bad flights did better next time. Extremes both exceptional - regression to the mean.

Failure of intuition: Listing pros and cons before making a decision allows you to take account of more evidence and alternatives. Specific tests are more useful than job interviews as determining suitability for jobs.

Utility: Growths in kidney are tested by either aspiration (low risk) tests for cysts or arteriography for tumours (2 days in hospital and risk of blood clots - doctors and patients agree it is 10 times as bad a procedure) . Negative result of either test does not rule out other condition, so aspiration should be done first unless likelihood of tumour is greater than 1/11. Many medical treatments have unpleasant side effects so Quality Adjusted Life Year (QALY) try to establsih how many years with a given disability are equivalent in people's preferences to one year of normal life. This figure is then compared with the probablities of death, complications or side effects of an operation or drug treatment.

Paranormal: People who believe in the paranormal almost certainly base this on too small a sample.

Causes, cures and costs: Under stress people tend to act on impulse. Conformity and embarrassment probably partially inborn as human survival depends on being a member of a group. However, group allegience in modern society can lead to inappropriate and irrational behaviour. There is evidence that learning one subject does not make it easier to learn a second unless content overlaps. A-level teaching in the UK emphasises rote learning with little stress on rational thinking. Multiple choice questions allow no scope for thought and depend entirely on memory. exams with a fixed time limit are likely to encourage impulsice and inflexible thinking.

From another source - not recorded
Keeping secrets: Attempts to keep information secret are not very successful. Outside commerce, ideas are to be drawn on and the inventor of an idea gains rather than loses if an idea is taken up by others.

END

Post-Brexit Poll 22-25 July 2016

A post-referendum survey, conducted for the New European newspaper found the result has left people less confident about their futures. The poll of 1,148 people was carried out online between 22 and 25 July 2016. The results were weighted by age, sex and socio-economic group and voters were also weighted to match the 2015 Westminster and 2016 EU referendum results. Panelbase is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Here are some of the findings.

Brexit negotiations: 71% feel having Theresa May as PM strengthens our position.

Foreign Secretary: 68% feel having Boris Johnson as Foreign Secretary weakens our position on Brexit.

Confidence about the future: 38% less confident, 31% no difference, 31% more confident.

Better or worse off outside EU: 41% worse off, 36% better off, 23% don't know.

Safer or not outside EU: 42% more safe, 31% less safe, 27% don't know.

Feel more or less European post-vote: 77% made no difference, 15% feel less European, 8% feel more European.

What does Brexit mean: 40% think it is leaving the single market with restrictions on freedom of movement, 29% that the UK would stay in or have free trade with the market and free movement of people, 16% believe that it is staying in or trading freely with the single market and free movement of people.

The survey found no great evidence of Regrexit - Leave voters changing their minds. [Not unexpected. There is a well-known puychological reason for this; if you make a significant purchase or change in your life, you will unconsciously look for reasons to support the decision you made.]

The poll found that the nation is still deeply divided. For the Remain voters, the key issue was the economy, and for Leave voters it was immigration. Of Brexit voters, 42% had no friends from foreign backgrounds, compared with 29% of those who voted Remain.

The New European, issue 29 July-4 Aug 2016

Bathtime Facts

Taking a hot bath lowers blood pressure (body loses heat by dilating blood vessels at the surface of the skin, causign a drop in overall resistance to blood flow and so a fall in pressure).

Very hot water is less relaxing. In 15 mins in water at 43C body temperature increases by a degree or two, and pulse rises from 75 beats per minute up to around 115 beats. Return to normal temperature takes about half an hour.

Warm baths aid recovery from exercise by relaxation and improved circulation. The latter aids the dispersal of lactic acid, the end product of anaerobic exercise, and may help to remove fluid that seeps into tired muscles from blood vessels during exercise, and in so doing, helps alleviate aches and pains.

The most soothing temperature is 38C (100F).

Sudden exposure to cold water causes a rise in blood pressure and may stop the heart. Cold showers seem to create a mild feeling of euphoria.

Dangers: Fainting in hot water because of diversion of blood to skin. Heatstroke in a very hot bath if room so steamy that sweat cannot evaporate to cool the skin. A body temperature of 42C to 43C can be fatal.

Source unknown, date not recorded

Boris Johnson Blunders

Apart from his gaffes in the media, Boris Johnson made spectacular blunders while Mayor of London.

Bikes, buses and bridges: Boris Johnson’s nine biggest design blunders by Oliver Wainwright

The Thames cable car was to be a vital transport link and a thrilling attraction, its £25m cost paid entirely by private sponsorship. Costs ballooned to £60m (£24m paid by the taxpayer), while sponsor Emirates airline had its name on the tube map in perpetuity. After opening it was discovered there was no demand, and two years later it didn’t have a single regular user.

The New Routemaster with its nostalgic design, conductors and back door was intended to be more fuel efficient, with all costs borne by the industry. In fact, Transport for London (TfL) paid the £11m development cost, and each bus cost twice as much as a regular double-decker. With faulty air-conditioning and lacking openable windows it becomes unbearable in high temperatures, is just as polluting as the old buses and the cost of a second conductor was too expensive.

The cycle hire scheme, originally planned by his predecessor Ken Livingstone, was to be funded by sponsorship (initially by Barclays, now by Santander) but the deal only covers a fraction of the running costs, leaving TfL with an £11m annual bill (the equivalent scheme in Paris makes £12m a year for the city).

Johnson initiated the project to build the ArcelorMittal Orbit, a tangle of steel by Anish Kapoor for the 2012 Olympic Games. This privately sponsored ‘gift’ costs Londoners £10,000 a week to maintain. A £3m slide was recently added in the hope of recouping costs.

With the London 2012 Olympic bid won by his predecessor, Johnson claimed credit for the regeneration of the Lower Lea Valley. But the pledge of 10,000 new homes resulted in just 6,000 and the athletes’ village costing £1.1bn was sold for about half that to Qatar. Instead of the promised 50% affordable homes, with sites for community-led housing projects, plots were sold to the usual volume house builders, with just 30% affordable.

Johnson criticised the 27 tall buildings passed by Ken Livingstone but during his mayoralty, then approved a further 436 towers. Many projects may be halted due to Brexit.

Johnson boasts of building more affordable homes than Livingstone did – but the definition of “affordable” changed during his tenure. Previously linked to local incomes, itcan now mean up to 80% of market rate. Westminster council warned this would mean council tenants in a three-bedroom home needed an income of £109,000 a year but half its social rented households have an income of less than £12,000 a year. Johnson also abandoned Livingstone’s 50% affordable target, allowing developers to justify levels as low as 10%.

The mayor has the power to “call in” major schemes deemed to be of “strategic importance” to London and overturn decisions made by the local planning authority. Of the 14 schemes Johnson called in, 13 were decided in favour of the developer. Almost two-thirds breached the mayor’s own density guidelines. He actively prevented councils from providing low-rented housing where there was urgent local need for it, and set a dangerous precedent for bypassing the democratic planning process. The result: a city where developers call the tune.

Boris Watch also noted:

In 2007, he claimed that Bendy Buses “wipe out cyclists, there are many cyclists killed every year by them”. BorisWatch reported: the real figure was none killed by 2008 and a further none by the time the last bendy left in December 2011. During this period around 45 cyclists had died in accidents not involving bendy buses.

https://www.boriswatch.co.uk/2012/03/28/great-boris-lies-3-bendy-buses-kill-cyclists/

END

Body Clocks and Sleep

Sleep habits can affect hormone peaking. Some people have more flexible rhythms and adjust better to unusual work schedules and are good candidates for space missions. Age affects flexibility; it is less easy to adjust in middle age.

Larks feel lively in the morning; body temperature cycles peak early in the day with large differences between top and bottom of the cycle. Suffer more from disturbed sleep if they work at night and when they fly across time zones from east to west. Owls have body cycles that peak later in the day than larks.

Every person has their own typical sleep length, around 8 hours. Sleep has two components - duration and placement. On free schedule study, people slept in fragments, with night time sleep periods typically double the length of day time ones. Between 7am and 2pm or 3pm a 'sleepability gate' opens every 90 to 120 minutes; after 3pm a wide sleepability gate opens and if you have a siesta during this period it is easier to wake from REM sleep than during the night. REM (rapid eye movements) sleep blocks muscle movements and learning memeory and attention stop (impossible to learn while asleep).

Jeremy Campbell: Winston Churchill's Afternoon Nap.