The impression is that the world's population is spiralling out of control: in 1800 the global population was 1 billion; by 2013 this had risen to 7 billion. However, the truth is rather more re-assuring - birth rates are coming down. Reductions in birth rate follows better child survival, which in turn is assisted by more and longer education for women and better health care for them and their infants.
Birth rates are falling. In 1963, the global average was 5 children per woman; in 2013 this is now down to 2.5 children per woman. While this obviously hides a wide disparity between countries, the rate is falling in the heaviest populated countries too. In Bangladesh in 1963 women had an average of 7 children (and a life expectancy of 50), whereas in 2013 they are averaging 2 children (and a life expectancy of 70).
The actual impact of this will not be a sudden fall in overall population; in fact there is still an increase to come, with the 2013 figure of 7 billion estimated to rise to 11 billion in 2100. What is signifcant is that there will be a change in the demographic proportions ( a 15 year generation gap has been used).
7 Billion made up of 2+2+2+1+1+1: # 2b children (up to 15) # 2b young adult (15 to 30) # 2b middle adult (30 to 45) # 1b older adult (45 to 60) # 1b seniors (60 to 75) # 1b elders (75 to 90)
11 Billion made up of 2+2+2+2+2+1: # 2b children (up to 15) # 2b young adult (15 to 30) # 2b middle adult (30 to 45) # 2b older adult (45 to 60) # 2b seniors (60 to 75) # 1b elders (75 to 90)
Don't Panic: the truth about population [BBC documentary broadcast Nov. 2013]
