A useful historical review of the British population and how it has changed over time, though does not take account of issues after 1992, when the book was published.
Demography
of UK a paradigm of restraint even within the unique setting of N.W Europe.
West European marriage typically late and variable, so fertility generally low and
adaptive to economic trends. English population density and mortality lower,
crises less frequent than on continent. UK relatively free from civil strife
and invasion for 900 yrs. Unusual ethnic and religious homogeneity till
recently with consequent freedom from ideologically or racially fuelled civil
wars. Possible connection with avoidance of more absolute forms of autocracy and
grosser forms of inequality, early rise of constitutional government, security
of property, protection from Counter-reformation, spread of Roman law.
Marriage
only took place when the new household it created could be supported. The
‘diverging devolution’ form of inheritance in the West permits property
inheritance to offspring of either sex (instead of via descent groups or
lineages) and implies absence of dowry (thus indicating that marriage neither
supported or controlled by parents) and therefore delayed marriage. Anglo Saxon
tradition of individual ownership and property rights, concentration of land
inheritance to firstborn son reinforced the pattern, as did boarding out youth of both sexes as
servants.
Black
death 1348. Dominant factor in W. European mortality for 300 yrs. May have
helped European populations escape Malthusian trap (pop. increases up to level
of subsistence, growth then chokes on the restricted food supply and the low
wages it creates). By Tudor times, the UK demography features of free market in
land, labour and food, plus freedom from feudal pressures to marry/remarry
(more free than in Europe) prevented development of classical peasant economy,
encouraged geographical mobility and later marriage.
1500-1700
Households typically 4.7 persons (1992 was 2.6 persons), seldom contained family
members outside the nuclear family. Neither 3 generation or closely related
people plus spouses households were common. Elderly often lived alone, this by
choice in 17th C. Mortality meant that c.40% of households could have been 3
generation but only 20% were. Households were augmented by lodgers and c.30%
included servants (resident household and farmworkers), mostly unmarried males
and females aged 15-30; c.75%M and c.50%F spent time in service, at any one
time one third of 15-25 yr olds were in service. Rare situation outside N.W. Europe.
Encouraged geographical mobility. Also from 1630 there was overseas migration.
W.
European marriage pattern late (M 26-27, F23-24), high proportion lifelong
celibate (M 10-15%, more F). Late marriage depresses final family size (c.5-6
children per woman). Protracted breast feeding, longer birth spacings. English
fertility uniformly low, little regional variation unlike some continental
countries.
1700-1900
Fast population growth, earlier marriage, larger families. Family limitation
within marriage from 1850’s. Fall in mortality - public sanitation, fewer cases
of cholera, typhoid, TB (affects F more
than M), smallpox, safer childbirth. Agriculture coped by increased output up
to 1800, later by imports subsidised by manufacturing. At the end of the 19th
C, infant mortality accounted for 20% of all deaths; reduced by pastuerisation
of milk, clean drinking water, better education for women. Children faced
diphtheria (now controlled by immunisation), scarlet fever (virulence has
declined steeply, reason unknown), measles (a ‘crowd’ disease, fast moving,
short lived, needing a large pop. to remain endemic, sensitive to nutritional state
of victim), whooping cough (as a bacterial disease now curable, but more difficult
to vaccinate against as it strikes those under 1 yr old - over 80% of each
cohort would need to be vaccinated to eliminate it). Typhoid and cholera (both
transmitted by food an water contaminated by faeces of infected person)
eliminated in 19th C by segregation of sewage from drinking water.
Until
after WWI, 95% of households rented accommodation. By the end of 19th C.,
almost all houses had a WC or privy, even if outside; most from medium size up
had internal bathroom (ahead of other Europeans).
By late 18th C,
lagged response to better wages and farming output, earlier marriage (22F, 23M)
and only 5% did not marry; fertility all-time high c.1800. By 1840 marriage age
higher, fertility lower again. From 1870 average family size
fell from 5 to 6 down to 2 within 60 yrs, an unprecedented transition, unrelated to
marriage levels; limitation of family size only happens if (a) morally
acceptable, (b) practicable and (c) in family interest.
1930
to present. In 1981, UK one of world’s most densely populated countries, 242
persons per sq km, wide variation since 75% of population if urban. Total
fertility rate in England and Wales: 2.14 (1951), 2.94 (1964), 2.38 (1971),
1.77 (1977), c.1.8 since then. Rates in Europe in 1989: UK 1.8, Italy and West
Germany 1.3 (the lowest in world history). US data suggests human sperm count
per ejaculation about half of value 25 yrs ago (possible link with chemicals
which mimic effects of oestrogens from plastics industry and pesticides has been suggested).
Relative frequency of non-identical twins approximately halved in UK and Western
countries; sex ratio at birth fell from 106.3M (1971-75) to 104.8 (1988); both
believed partly dependent on female sex hormone levels. Approx. 15-20% of
married couples childless after 20 yrs. Historical data suggests that 3% of
couples sterile from start of reproductive life, risk of sterility rises up to
age 35, then rises more steeply (6% at 25, 24% at 40). Median age of menopause
51 in Western society today.
Abortion
affects illegitimate birth rate rather than overall fertility. Termination of
extra-marital conceptions 40% (1976), 36% (1986). Abortions uncommon within
marriage (7% in 1986) but varies with age (4% for 20-24 yrs, 43% for 40 yrs) as
higher risk of congenital abnormalities increases with age. Ratio of abortions
to live births is 500:1000 in UK and other industrial countries but 1500:1000
in Japan, Denmark and Sweden. Actual no. of conceptions in Sweden is much lower
than in UK, possibly due to comprehensive sex education. Parents of teenage
mothers were usually themselves married young, had only primary education,
manual occupations and came from large families. Over 50% of teenage marriages
end in divorce by 25 yrs after marriage. In USA, sex education is forbidden in
many schools, highest teenage birthrate in western world despite relatively
high abortion ratio.
Most
preferred family size is 2. People who feel in control of their lives plan
fertility more effectively. Life control associated with higher education and
income, occupational position and success. A wider use of existing
contraceptive methods by non-users and a change from IUD use (has high failure
rate) to more effective methods would bring abortion rate down 46%. By 1992 some 70% of
births still occurred within marriage, but more than 25% outside marriage, though
often within an informal union. Married women who work have fewer children than
women who do not, delay birth of 1st and 2nd child, compress childbearing into
their late 20’s and the second five yrs of marriage and avoid 3rd and
subsequent births. Age at maternity is delayed by career/work and remarriage.
While 2 child family average this century, not all families are 2 child. Of the
1946 female birth cohort at age 36, 52% had 2 children, 16% had 1 and 32% had 3
plus. Tendency for 4 plus families to have more unintended children. Large
families in social class V determined partly by ignorance and fear of sex and
contraception and some disapproval of contraception.
In
1989, 66% of households were owner/occupiers, 24% rented from local authority,
6% rented privately, 2% from a housing association. Owner/occupiers tend to
delay childbearing due to heavy housing costs early on; intending council
tenants may marry and start a family early thus increasing chances of house
allocation via points system.
Cohabitation
pre-marriage increasing: 50% before first marriage, 58% before all marriages.
Cohabiting couples predominantly childfree. Couples who divorce and remarry in
their late 20’s often want a second family, so woman may have a 3rd or 4th
child. Marriage breakdowns may be more likely where 4 plus children. 18th C
marriages almost as frequently broken by death; remarriage, a series of
families and complex step relationships common. Highest risk of divorce in
first 5-10 yrs of marriage. Various legislations easing divorce produced bulges
as they cleared long dead marriages not previously dissoluble. Underlying trend
shows signs of flattening (as in USA and elsewhere) - poss. due to decline
since early 1970’s of divorce-prone early marriages. Remarriages are twice as
vulnerable to divorce as first marriage.
Ratio
of workers to pensioners in 1920’s was about 8 : 1, now about 3.3 : 1.
Increasing numbers over 75; those over 75, and espec. over 85, more likely to
need sheltered or full institutional care. Increasing % of lone parent
households, many on welfare benefit.
AIDS
chiefly centred in Central Africa, but now occurs world wide, prob. originated by
mutation from monkey virus. Of those who test positive for HIV, at least 20%
(and poss. most) will contract AIDS or AIDS related complex; of these, most
will die. Life expectancy in infected and infectious state is 7-10 yrs, but
typically only 1 yr after diagnosis. Some Ugandan hospital admissions for other
causes have 15% HIV positive; estimated 2.5 million African adults infected by
1987. AIDS is a problem as it is chronic, diagnosed late, and spread by two
popular but private activities.
If
smoking and so its related lung cancer and heart disease deaths reduced and
medical advances prevent or defer death from other causes, a final average age
of 85 and ultimate age of 115 have been suggested. Poorer countries with a more
egalitarian income distribution, educated populations and broad if simple
medical coverage, tend to have better mortality figures than expected from
their low average income (China, Ceylon, some southern Indian states, Cuba).
Ethnic
minorities. In general, before 20th C, immigrants to UK did not establish
substantial minority populations which preserved their own language, religion
or way of life. This has changed since 1940. Difficulty of estimating numbers -
birthplace may or may not indicate ethnic origins; birthplace of parents may
identify immigrants or ethnic populations now, but not in succeeding
generations. Immigrant populations are strongly concentrated geographically -
caused by job and accommodation availability and initial settlements are close
to port of entry. Only one wife is allowed into UK from a polygamous marriage.
Immigrant
populations: men often outnumber women as they often settle first and wives and
families follow, have higher fertility initially. Asian average fertility
declining to just below 3. The rate is still 5+ for mainly Muslim Pakistanis
and Bangladeshis (marriage at a young age and almost universal). Asian households
less often nuclear. RC fertility differentials are disappearing, Italian
fertility the lowest in Europe; in England RC fertility is around average for
country, in N.Ireland is higher. Immigrant populations from third world often
have marked sex preferences for boys, keeping family size up until required
number of boys born. [The authors note that Asian women tend to be illiterate; Muslim women reticent
about sex and ignorant about contraception; few married Asian women go out to
work.] Only c. 1% of all current marriages are ethnically mixed but c.10% of
current marriages with at least one ethnic partner are ethnically mixed. South
Asians less likely to marry outside the ethnic group. ‘Mixed-origin’ children
can be from a variety of pairings; within each pairing the offspring can vary
in physical characteristics.
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