Who was able to vote?
British, Irish and Commonwealth citizens over 18 who are resident in the UK.
UK nationals who have lived overseas for less than 15 years.
Members of the House of Lords
Commonwealth citizens in Gibraltar.
Unlike the Scottish independence referendum, 16 and 17 year olds were not given the opportunity to vote as the House of Commons blocked a move by the House of Lords to allow this in the UK-EU vote.
How many people voted
In total, around 45.3 million people could have taken part. With a turnout of 71.8%, more than 30 million did vote but 15.3 million did not, many of whom were young. If you factor in those who did not vote, then the percentage voting Leave is 36%.
Why don't young people vote?
Not because they are lazy; they volunteer more than old people; are much better educated; and less likely to drink excessively or use drugs than previous generations of youth.
They don't feel they have much of a stake in society. They settle down later, if at all. Having children and owning property gives you a direct interest in how schools and hospitals are run, and whether parks and libraries are maintained. If you rent and move often, registering to vote can get forgotten. In Britain almost a quarter of 19-year-olds move from one local authority to another in a typical year; more still will move within the same district.
They may not feel that there is anyone worth voting for. Charismatic politicians can win over the young (e.g. Barack Obama had high youth turnout in his favour). In most elections, a simpler strategy is to win over older people, who will vote however bad the candidates are. Young people tend be more cosmopolitan, liberal and hopeful than their elders and switched off by the negativity and cynicism of election campaigns targeting the unhappy old.
Read the full article in The Economist [http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2014/10/economist-explains-24]
How did we vote?
UK: Leave: 17,410,742 and Remain: 16,141,241 (turnout 71.8%)
Wiltshire: Leave 151,637 and Remain: 137,258 (turnout 78.87%) (one electoral ward voted 75% Remain and another 83% Leave).
While there are no figures on this, a certain proportion who wanted to Remain were so fed up with the current government they decided to vote Leave as a protest vote.
A thoughtful overview of British political views as revealed by the Referendum vote is 'Politics snagged on society's sharp divides' by Mark Mardell, presenter of BBC's The World This Weekend.
What is a majority?
What consitutes a majority can vary and needs to be set beforehand. The UK-EU vote used a simple majority - technically one vote more for either option, though this would have led to recounts to ensure accuracy.
However, given that some 33% of the country did not vote, and the majority in favour was less than 4%, it did not accurately reflect the views of the population. Many would argue that with a turnout of less than 75%, the majority should have reached a much higher figure.
Immigration
Worldwide there are common misconceptions on migration, which can have a significant impact as politicians aim to focus on voter perceptions, not on the actual data. [From Guardian article on Ipsos Mori survey ]
- The actual percentage of Muslims in the UK is 5%, but an Ipsos Mori survey found people thought it was 21%. [They also underestimate the proportion of Christians, believing it is 39% when the correct figure is 59%.]
- Immigrants are thought to make up 24.4% of the population when it is actually about 13%.
- Britons believe 24% of people are unemployed, over three times higher than the actual rate of 7%.
Cost of being in the EU.
The amount we pay into the EU is wildly misquoted and misinterpreted. The full cost would be £18bn (2015) but we only contribute £13bn as we get a discount (rebate) of £5bn. And we receive money from EU subsidies, regional development projects, etc. (over £4bn in 2015). [https://fullfact.org/economy/our-eu-membership-fee-55-million/]
Jobs
The lack of traditional jobs is the result of globalisation of labour and the operation of financial markets. Leaving the EU will not of itself change this. [See The Impulse Society by Paul Roberts.]
Single Market
Leave: Some suggested the UK does not need preferential access to the single market. Now they say UK should get preferential access to the single market but will not have to accept freedom of movement to get it. [This seems unlikely: For example Norway is in the single market but has to accept freedom of movement of EU citizens and EU regulations on products. The EU is unlikely to change the rules for the UK.]
UK outvoted in EU?
Leave: Andrea Leadsom claimed “We - Britain - have voted against Europe 70 times and 70 times we have been outvoted.” Reality: Professor Simon Hix from the London School of Economics says: "We've been outvoted you could argue 70 times, but on the winning side over several thousand times. That's the sort of order of magnitude that we are talking about. [In] the 2004-9 period, 98% of the time we were on the winning side. 2010-15, 90% of the time we were in the winning majority."
Church of England Diocese of Salisbury
Within the Diocese, the Leave figures were higher than in the country overall. However, there was extreme disparity within the area with one Wiltshire electoral district voting 75% Remain and another 83% Leave. Additionally a survey indicates that there was a marked division by age: 18-24 (75% Remain); 25-49 (56% Remain); 50-64 (44% Remain); 65+ (39% Remain). Read the Bishop of Salisbury's letter here. [I think this Diocese has a more elderly age profile than the UK average.]
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