Wednesday, 8 February 2017

Brexit Vote Breakdown

The National Centre for Social Research report is based on a "synthesis of evidence" from the British Social Attitudes Survey of 3,000 adults; the NCSR's own panel of almost 4,000 people, in May/June and September; and the British Election Study Panel of around 30,000 people.

Turnout: Pre-vote intentions to vote Leave, 11% did not actually vote. Pre-vote intentions to vote Remain, 19% did not vote.

Big issues: What decided people on how to vote:
# Economy (21%) but only 15% of these voted Leave
#  Immigration (20%) - 88% of these voted Leave
# Sovereignty/EU bureaucracy (17%) - 90% of these voted Leave.

Party: The proportion of people voting Leave, by party identification, was: UKIP - 98%, No affiliation - 70%, Conservative - 58%, Labour - 36%, Liberal Democrat - 26%, Green Party - 21%

Newspapers: Voters were more likely to "follow the position" of the newspaper they read than the political party they identified with. The rates of Leave voting were: Sun - 70%, Express - 70%, Mail - 66%, Star - 65%, Telegraph - 55%, Mirror - 44%, No newspaper - 41%, Other paper - 33%, Times - 30%, Financial Times - 22%, Independent - 15%, Guardian - 9%. [My comment: This is sad but not unexpected. The press is currently dominated by the opinions (and not facts) of the owners / editors. They may be independent but are not neutral. They were able to effectively increase Leave campaign funding by their actions.]

Groups: The people most likely to vote Leave were: those with no formal qualifications (78%), those with an income of less than £1,200 a month (66%) and those in social housing provided by councils (70%) or housing associations (68%).

They were also those finding it difficult to manage financially (70%), or just about getting by (60%), those who believe Britain has got worse in last decade (73%), those who think things have got worse for them in last decade (76%), and those who see themselves as English rather than British (74%).

General: The report found a "slow burn of Euroscepticism" with the referendum highlighting "a wide range of social, geographic and other differences". It was not a "traditional left-right battle" but one more about "identity and values".

Read in full: Brexit vote: the breakdown on BBC website 7 Dec. 2016 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38227674