In December 2016, the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR), a centre-left think tank, published a report giving its predictions on how the UK would change in the coming years. The analysis draws on data from the OECD, the ONS and numerous
economists and researchers. IPPR took a neutral position during the run-up to the EU
referendum; this highlights how Brexit would
exacerbate challenges around inequality and low productivity that the UK is already facing.
## Two-thirds of current jobs - 15 million - were at
risk from new technologies such as
artificial intelligence systems. This would make jobs less secure and more freelance.
## Income inequality will become more entrenched, as will the wealth gap between London and the rest of the country. By 2030 households will on average be £1,700 worse off per year than
they would have been if Britain had stayed in the EU, with a
persistently falling currency driving up prices and hitting the living
standards of poorer people the hardest.
## There will be a population boom, with a 30% increase in the number of
over-65s in the population by 2030, and a doubling of the number of
over-85s. This would cause the state funding gap for adult social
care to hit £13bn by 2030-31. The non-white proportion of the population is predicted to climb to more than one in five within 12 years.
## The UK is likely to
remain trapped in a low growth, low interest rate decade driven by
demographic shifts, productivity trends, weak investment, weak labour
power, high levels of debt, and a slowing global
economy. "Without reform, our political and social system will
struggle to build a more democratic, healthy society in the decades
ahead, even as Brexit accelerates us towards a radically different
institutional landscape."
Read the IPPR report: http://www.ippr.org/publications/future-proof-britain-in-the-2020s
BBC News website 29 dec. 2016: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38459135
The Guardian 29 Dec. 2016: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/dec/29/uk-in-2030-older-more-unequal-and-blighted-by-brexit-report-predicts
