Factfulness by Hans Rosling with Ola Rosling and Anna Rosling Ronnlund (Sceptre, 2018)
This book shows that the world is in a better position than we (and people in other countries) think, and explains why the way our minds work can be the reason why.
The human brain has evolved over millenia, and we are hard-wired with instincts (e.g. jumping to conclusions quickly, liking gossip and stories and craving fat and sugar) that helped our ancestors survive - but these instincts serve us less well today.
A low child mortality rate in a country tells us that their parents and their society protect them from dangers such as germs, starvation and violence, that most families have enough food, their sewage systems don't leak into drinking water, there is good access to primary healthcare and their mothers can read and write. Since 1960, all over the world, child mortality rates have dropped.
Humans tend to divide all things into two distinct and often conflicting groups - with a big gap in between. In 1965, 15 'developed' countries had just 2% of the world's population; women had fewer than 3.5 children, and child survival was above 90%. In the remaining 125 countries women had more than 5 children on average, and child deaths were common. Today families are small and child deaths rare for 85% of the world's population. Life expectancy in low income countries is 62 years, and most people have enough to eat, access to improved water and their children are vaccinated. Only in exceptional places (Afghanistan and South Sudan) is the rate of girls finishing primary school as low as 20%.
Only 9% of the world population lives in low income countries, but even these have better conditions than Afghanistan, Somalia and the Central African Republic, which are the worst places in which to live (in 2018). The majority (75%) of people live in middle income countries.
The terms 'developed' and 'developing' countries are unhelpful and it is better to use four income levels. At Level 1 (1 billion people), life is hard, with large families, water has to be fetched from a distance, cooking is done over a fire, poor soil means crops are poor, and you can't afford healthcare. At Level 2 (3 billion people), you can buy food you didn't grow, keep chickens, have a bike so it is easier to fetch water or get to work; electricity helps your children do homework but it is not reliable enough for a freezer. But illness could send you back to Level 1 again. At Level 3 (2 billion people), you have one or more paid jobs and can save money. You have a cold water tap, stable electrical line, perhaps a motorcycle, so you can go further for better paid work. Your savings help with accident and illness. Your children start high school and may well end up with much better paid jobs. At Level 4 (1 billion people), you are rich. With more than twelve years of education, you have been on an aeroplane, have hot and cold water indoors, can eat out once a month, and buy a car. Often it takes several generations for a family to move from L1 to L4, but it is possible.
Averages can mask reality. Average income in different countries can imply that all incomes in one country (e.g. US) are higher than in another (e.g. Mexico) but the reality might be that there is overlap with a proportion of Mexicans earning as much as some Americans.
Our instinct is to focus on the bad rather than the good, because of the misremembering of the past, the selective reporting by journalists, and a feeling that while things are bad, it is heartless to say they are getting better. While we should still be concerned by plane crashes, endangered species, crazy dictators and the like, we should still be able to accept that we are making progress, but the media and activists rely on drama to get our attention.
But today the life expectancy of the world is 70 years and the number of deaths per year from natural disasters has decreased to less than half over the last century. Today, 80% of the world's children have been vaccinated against some form of disease and worldwide, 30 year-old men have spent 10 years in school on average, and 30 year-old women 9 years on average. 80% of people worldwide have some access to electricity. In the US, the crime rate has been on a downward trend since 1990.
We tend to assume that things develop and continue in a straight line fashion. But the Ebola outbreak in 2014 was difficult to contain until it was realised that people were infecting others before showing symptoms themselves, so the number of cases was doubling every day. Once you know the cause, you can deal with the issue or realise that things are already changing for the better.
The world population is increasing very fast at present, so people are rightly concerned. But the evidence is that the rate is slowing. There are 2 billion children (aged 0 to 15) in the world today. UN experts predict that in the year 2100 there will still be only 2 billion children. But they also predict that by 2100, the world population will be increased by 4 billion people, as there will be more adults (age 15 to 74), so the shape of the population curve will change. These extra people come from children and young people who have already been born. Since the trend for smaller families is already well under way and will continue as income levels rise worldwide, the global population is predicted to stabilise in 2060.
However, people still believe that in many countries people have huge families, whereas the facts show that worldwide people are already having fewer children. The exception is those few countries still experiencing extreme poverty. Our problem is that we see where we are at present - and assume a straight line increase, whereas population levels are on a downward curve. But it will take three generations to stabilise.
The human fear instinct can also distort our view of reality. Some fears are hardwired deep in our brains for good reason (snakes, spiders, heights and being trapped in small spaces) as they helped our species to survive in the past. The media focus on disasters makes us feel the world is a dangerous place, even while it has never been less violent or more safe. Even natural disasters kill fewer people because more are better prepared, better educated and live in safer environments. While difficult to believe with media coverage of specific areas, even conflicts and fatalities from conflicts are at a record low. In the US, the risk of being killed in a car accident or homicide is 50 times higher than the being killed by a terrorist. Things can be bad, but also still getting better.
We also tend to focus on the individual victim when it makes more sense to make changes to benefit more people. Training village health workers and get as many children as possible vaccinated will do more good that providing expert care in hospitals that few can access. In 1950, 14.4 million children died before their first birthday. In 2017 the figure was 4.2 million - still too high but what a reduction.
Use the 80/20 rule. By understanding what is the biggest factor, you stand the best chance of changing things for the good. In most budgets 20% of items account for 80% of the spend, and confusions or missing decimal points can cause problems. Of the 7 billion people alive today, 1b are in the Americas, 1b are in Europe, 1b are in Africa and 4b are in Asia but 7 out of 10 people get this wrong. Arguing about emissions per nation is pointless; we need to state emissions per person.
Beware of 'the majority' as this can be as little as 51%; get the actual percentage. The generalisation instinct ends up stereotyping people and places, often incorrectly. Fewer pregnancies result in roughly two years less menstruation. Manufacturers of menstrual pads are dreaming up new needs for menstrual pads (thinner, for specific needs of 300 million women) in Level 4 countries, while ignoring the need for low-cost pads reliable throughout the day for the 2 billion menstruating women in Level 2 and 3 countries. Likewise, big pharmaceutical companies focus on developing new, revolutionary, life-prolonging medicine and are failing to reach huge markets in Level 2 and 3 countries where millions of people need drugs that have already been discovered at affordable prices.
In some countries you come across half-built houses. The owners are not disorganised, but can't get loans to finance building, and money can be stolen or lose value through inflation. So they build the lower story, then buy individual bricks as and when they can afford them and eventually build the upper floor.
The US spends more than twice as much per head of population on health care as other Level 4 countries, but life expectancy is 3 years less than them; 39 other countries have longer life expectancies. The reason is the lack of basic public health insurance.
When something bad happens we want to find who or what is to blame. We tend to look for bad guys who confirm our existing beliefs. Free, independent and truth-seeking journalism may not be representative.
The urgency instinct makes us want to take immediate action in the face of a perceived imminent danger, when we need to take time to investigate causes and assess the best actions.
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