Why does so much exist, even when we recognise it as 'transparently drivel'? Condemning it achieves nothing and undermines trust and increases cynicism. This book asks whether it might have some other underlying purpose, beyond direct persuasion. Our culture is currently characterised by a pervasive tendency of those in authority to overstate their case, but also the bad habits of modern communication evolved for a reason.
Facts and Lies. Worryingly, public figures are happy to state facts that are not true, or talk about alternative facts. Fake news stories are shared across social media before someone notices that the original source is far from reliable. Apart from straightforward facts (the sun is shining), we have to judge whether a statement is true. Facts can be probably true, or partly true, or true only in some contexts.
- The near-lie uses the right words to give the wrong impression - the art of picking your words carefully in order to mislead.
- Economical with the truth: the absence of relevant information.
- Spin - a favourable interpretation of the facts. How the facts are joined up, how much weight is put on certain facts, or a false interpretation of data.
- Deception through self-delusion. The facts might be untrue, but someone sincerely but unreasonably believes an alternative version.
- The empty assertion is not only untrue, but bears little relation to the facts, and there is minimal effort to tie it to the facts at all.
- Obfuscation is where you have good reason to say nothing, but you don't want to admit this so you say something. It can be useful in diplomatic exchanges (e.g. between countries) but in other cases it comes across as politicians refusing to answer the question.
- Gibberish and needlessly complex language. Wine reviews, for example, use a complex vocabulary but only convey indirect information.
- Manufactured behaviour in practice: smiling for a photograph is a social convention, displays of Christmas decorations or the clothes we wear can imply status. If a government policy is not met, a review can come up with a new definition and a new target.
- The manufactured action is designed to imitate a real action, in the hope we will find it meaningful. And we can be easily misled, as we tend to assume certain things go together - a good cover implies the magazine content is also good.
- 'Cheap talk' has more value when there is close alignment between parties. Costly signalling is needed when interests are not aligned.
- A lot of advertising is not cheap. This signals that the product itself has quality. And it makes sense for a good product to have the best advertising - as we'll find out how good it is once we've bought it - and will make our feelings known if it doesn't perform to expectations.
- At a friend's dinner party the dessert is burnt, the host apologises and the guests try and reassure the host that its ok really. The host will be aware that the guests are being nice about the mess up, but still be annoyed with himself for bungling the baking. This is socially mandated lying.
- Subtle messages are often sent on occasions where diplomacy is required. They might minimise past problems and confrontations, but are important in re-establishing good relations where blunt statements would not help.
- The choice of language often conveys something about the speaker. Academic jargon is a badge of membership of a community. You can tell if a politician is simply supporting his party line, rather than believing in the position itself.
Pricing items at £3.99 or £199.99 or £9,995 pays off because they look to be less than £4, £200 or £1,000, even though we are aware that the actual difference is minimal.
Emotions motivate us to respond to things very quickly. Emotional appeals are strong but can be detached from any objective evidence. Anger has become a political tool. Convincing stories (clarity, consistency and appeal) are also memorable.
The bandwagon. Our species has a herd instinct, so we tend to follow the crowd, learn from what others say or do, and avoid being socially isolated. Clever communicators exploit this. A sale of 'overstock' rather than unsold items; queues outside nightclubs indicate popularity.
Managed expectations. To make people think something is big, get them to expect something that is small. Advance news that the education budget in 2002 would rise by about £10 billion was eclipsed by the actual Budget announcement that the rise would be £12.8 billion. Communicators who are good at dropping in carefully chosen 'anchors' into conversations can affect our judgement. An unreasonable (but not a turn off) price for a second hand car makes any price below that feel like a concession.
Framing. Those in favour of gay marriage refer to equal marriage. No-one is pro- or anti-abortion, they are pro-life or pro-choice. We then judge whether the position conform to my existing views or not. 'Tax relief' implies that tax is a negative thing; renaming it 'corporate welfare tax' or 'selective tax cut' diminishes its appeal - or we might see it as a bribe. One writer sees most political debates as a subliminal competition between the 'strict father' and the 'nurturing parent'; a third or more of the audience favour one or the other, while the big remainder see both sides of the issues.
Insidious or benign? The last five techniques interact and overlap. Ideally you put your pitch in a story, preferably with positive emotional appeal, frame your argument in a favourable way and distract attention from opposite points of view. You shape the argument rather than presenting an intellectually robust case. Herd instincts mean that the more people accept it, the more people will come to accept it, and then once people believe it, they will look for evidence in favour, and so strengthen our belief.
Short-termism. Most businesses need to maintain a long-term reputation, even if this is costly in the short term, but spouting lies and exaggerations can make political sense in the short term as long as you don't are about being caught out later. The long-term approach is to consistently tell the truth and gain people's trust. Promising not to raise taxes becomes false promises when you do raise them. (On the other hand, successful diplomacy often relies on fudging difficult issues in the short-term, to allow a more measured long-term solution.) Politicians campaigning for election are focused only on this election.
Culture and Norms. Understating how long a job will take, will leave an honest quote at a competitive disadvantage. We all want our voice to be heard, but end up with a din or a 'shouty' argument on social media. Journalists have an incentive to over-write stories to grab attention. One group's intensity often provokes a reaction from another group, and a tendency for escalation. Politicians mentioning specific groups unintentionally make others feel excluded.
Limits to the power of persuasion. While it can sometimes pay to be less than straightforward, in the long term facts are important. Reputations can't be built on images. The more something is tried, the less effective it is. Once we've spotted a trick, it no longer works. Shifting opinion on issues like same-sex marriage, or building a high-speed train line can take time; if there is no case, you are unlikely to persuade a majority of the population to back you. There is what you say, what the truth is, what people are predisposed to believe, what they actually believe now, and what they believe when the evidence becomes clearer. PR won't help raise the low esteem in which finance is held; they played a big part in causing a prolonged depression in the West, and only a change of personality, culture and behaviour can help. Warren Buffet's approach to communication is more straightforwardly honest than most, speaks more casually and uses less ceremony. 'Crucially, because he is not trying to manage a message, he does not have to think about what he says'.
Better Bullshit. Relax, don't over-think and avoid coming across as too studied. Having a good story to tell, and presenting it consistently, clearly and without clutter is important. But devising a slogan and repeating it endlessly without regard to context is poor communication. Communicators should, as a default, say what they really believe in as straightforward a way as possible. It is who you are that matters, more than what you say. Jabbing fingers in a televised debate, speaking over rivals, trying to prevail on an issue that matters little to the average voter or speaking defensively, is not attractive to voters. The harder the sell, the less convincing it is. Putting a point gently can be more effective than pushing it, and open-mindedness can be more effective than certainty.
The Discerning Listener. Doctors 'read' the patient to decide how they communicate unpleasant truths. We are subject to wishful thinking and confirmation bias. We need to tell ourselves not to let optimism turn into gullibility. At fraught times in countries that are sharply divided and where people have a strong sense of loyalty to one side of an argument or another, there is perhaps an increased tendency for people to swallow a group line without questioning it. The media should not allow itself to be intimidated, nor should it pick fights for the sake of it. It should freely admit when it gets things wrong, but should never fail to point out inaccuracies, for fall for phoney impartiality (the earth is flat) as that is a disservice to the public. The facts are selected, interpreted and used; sensible media outlets can't fall for 'alternative facts'. As long as people in authority feel they will not get a fair hearing, they have an incentive to disguise mistakes and cover up consequences to their actions.
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