The Population Explosion

Paul Ehrlich & Anne H. Ehrlich: The Population Explosion. Touchstone Books, 1991.
A useful overview of the facts and issues and still relevant despite being written more than twenty years ago. 

Overpopulation occurs when population density is more than the carrying capacity of an area's resouces. The consequences of human overpopulation are: traffic, refuse disposal, smog, epidemics, soil erosion, lower water table, overuse of water resources, crime rates, air pollution, loss of genetic diversity in lost species and the effect on renewable and non-renewable resources.

There is a deep feeling of need to out-reproduce other members of a species. Early human females probably bore several young in their lifetimes but at intervals of several years. Since available food was not easily digested  by the very young, they were perhaps breastfed for around 3 years, thus delaying return of fertility of mother.

Demographic momentum is the tendency of a previously growing population to keep expanding after reproductive rates have been reduced. In 1989, around 40% of the population of less developed nations were under 15 years old and had yet to reproduce. The prime reproductive years are between 15 and 30 years old. When an 'average couple' has slightly more than two children, a population has reached replacement level.

Human migration features: rural to urban, developing to developed nations, refugees fleeing from wars and ecological disasters. About a third of the world's grain harvest is fed to animals to produce eggs, milk and meat for American-style diets. Artificial hybrids are often vulnerable to pest, need chemical controls and are often sterile, so farmers have to buy each year. Fertilisers only replace two or three basic minerals and do nothing for soil structure. Over fishing and ocean pollution change the marine environment.

Climatic changes, soil changes, sea water level changes. Developed countries rely on smooth functioning of transport to keep food available. Rainwater is distilled water; irrigation water contains salts which are left behind and may build up to high levels (the Aral Sea has shrunk in area by a third and the irrigated cropland around it has become a salt desert). It is difficult to use marginal lands. Tropical rainforest nutrients are largely stored in vegetation not soil. If vanilla is produced in a laboratory, what happens to the c.70,000 Madagscan vanilla farmers?

Epidemics are related to population size and density. Many bacterial and viral diseases depend on densely packed large communities, or run out of susceptible individuals to infect and so die out (e.g. measles cannot persist in populations of fewer than 300,000 people). Populations with no exposure to a specific infection are likely to have a huge proportion of people affected. Poor areas in large cities with bad sanitation and unclean water provide an ideal target. Faster transport can spread disease as people may be infectious before showing signs of infection.

The factors which help reduce fertility are: adequate nutrition, proper sanitation, basic health care, education of women and equal rights for women. The first four reduce infant mortality. Women apply schooling to improve family life, are more open to contraception and better able to use it; while men use schooling to earn a better income. When women have sources of status other than children, family sizes decline. The fear of being out-reproduced by other populations needs to be reduced. Outlawing abortion only increases illegal abortion figures. Islam has no moral objections to contraception, but there is a generally low status of women in traditional patriarchal societies.

END

Why Do We Vote The Way We Do?

This is an interesting item about the psychology of voting.

Elections are important and interesting. They’re interesting because they involve people, but explaining what they do and why they do it is not always straightforward. Democratic theory sees the voter as rational person, who weighs up all the evidence and then makes an informed verdict when voting. Actual voters aren’t much like that.

In practice, voters’ choices are swayed by 'emotions as well as reason, salesmen as well as products, by tribal attachment as well as cool calculation. .... The judgments rendered by the electorate are sometimes misinformed, and often harsh, but they are rarely irrational.'

On immigration, many experts see voters as hopelessly wrong about the numbers coming, the reasons they come and the impact they have on the economy. But while muddled on the details, voters respond to the big picture. When migrant numbers go up, more voters are concerned. They notice failed pledges to bring numbers down, and that one important reason for failure was rising immigration from the EU. 'The growing number of voters who wanted immigration reduced drew the logical conclusions from all of this: the old parties had failed on the issue, so they turned to a new one (Ukip); controlling migration looked close to impossible within the EU, so they voted to leave.'

This pattern of behaviour is often seen - ignorant about details, but responding to the big picture. While voters aren’t consistently rational even on the big picture, usually when they seem to go 'off the rails, there is an interesting logic underlying what they do, throwing light on the strengths apparently and weaknesses of how we reason more generally'.

Politics is an expression of, and a reflection of, who we are and how we think. The parties will appeal to tribal loyalties, and politicians will appeal to our hearts because decisions are often swayed more by our emotions. They will 'promise contradictory things, because voters often demand contradictory things. And even those who never watch a minute of this will be forming judgments based on conversations at work, with friends or around the family dinner table – as well as longer-standing allegiances, identities and beliefs'.


The Guardian, 27 August 2016: Philip Cowley and Robert Ford’s More Sex, Lies and the Ballot Box is published by Biteback on 1 September

Poisonous Plants

Here is a quick checklist of the most commonly found poisonous plants in the UK home, countryside and garden, and their symptoms. If any of these are eaten, seek medical help immediately.

Garden and Countryside

• Buttercup (sap): rash, skin irritation.
• Daffodil (bulb): vomiting, diarrhoea.
• Deadly nightshade (all parts): no symptoms for several hours, then dilated pupils, dry mouth, agitation. Can be fatal.
• Honeysuckle (berries): vomiting, diarrhoea.
• Horse chestnut (seeds - conkers): vomiting, diarrhoea.
• Holly (berries): vomiting, diarrhoea
• Ivy (berries): skin rash, then vomiting, diarrhoea.
• Laburnum (all parts, seeds most dangerous): burning in mouth, then projectile vomiting, headache, delirium and hallucinations. 
• Wild arum (berry-like seeds):
• Black Bryony (berries):
• Woody Nightshade (berries):
• Dogwood (berries):
• Spindle tree (berries): 
• Yew (berries):

Houseplants

• Dumbcane (sap): burning in mouth, tongue swells. Can cause choking.
• Hyacinths (sap): burning in mouth.

Very old magazine cutting, no date or attribution.

Wi-Fi Security Cameras

Wi-fi security cameras are the newest way to protect your home and your possessions.

Install them in prominent places around the house and you'll be alerted by email and phone when any movement is detected.

They also enable home owners to watch a live feed of what's happening in their home,via a smartphone or tablet app, so you can check your children have made it back safely from school.

The app lets you control how much footage is saved and allows you to download it directly to your phone to send it to the police if the worst should happen.

Good Housekeeping recommended the Netgear Arlo Home Security (in 2015 from £179.99 at maplin.co.uk), available in one, two, three or four camera kits. The cameras are battery powered and weatherproof, so can be mounted inside or out. Footage is recorded in high definition and works in the dark, thanks to night vision.

Good Housekeeping, November 2015

Body Clocks and Mental Powers

Human mental powers vary over 24 hours

• Efficiency in simple tasks (cross out every letter T in a sheet of newsprint) varies with body temperature.
• Memory and verbal reasoning varies with a clock of c. 21 hours.
• Routine repetitive manual tasks (pegs into holes) more successful late afternoon or early morning.
• Brain challenging tasks better late morning or midday.
• Long term memory peaks late in day, short term memory peaks around 10am to 11am.

Jetlag

• Flying from east to west shortens the day; flying from east to west lengthens the day nearer to natural rhythm.
• Tendency to clumsiness and duller mentally; wits recover sooner than dexterity.
• Travellers who stay in hotel rooms take longer to recover than those who go out and meet people.

Health

• Changing shift work schedules: digestion realigns with new sleep/wake cycle relatively quickly; temperature rhythm is next; last is cell division rhythm.
• Worst shift patterns are 12 hour shifts and highly variable ones.
• Workers adapt more easily to later working hours.
• Human rhythms can be changed by changing the meal schedule, with one meal a day. Only breakfast - insulin peaks c. 10am, glucagen c. 11 am, blood iron just before meal. Only dinner, insulin peaks c. 6pm, glucagen c. 11pm, blood iron just before meal.
• Greatest risk of accidents in the two hours before dawn - body temperature and alertness is at its lowest at around 5am.
• Biological clock needs daylight brightness level (10,000 lux on overcast day) to reset each day (candle = 20 lux, electric lamp = 300 lux).

Sources
Jeremy Campbell: Winston Churchill's Afternoon Nap.
BBC2 Horizon: Against the clock, broadcast 2 April 1994.

UK Government Spending

Your Money and HowThey Spend It. BBC programme 23 & 30 Nov. 2011 presented by Nick Robinson [A fascinating look at how governments spend our money. I took notes on this 2011 programme; while the actual figures may have changed most of information is still correct.]

The annual government spend for 2011 was £692 bn. Three-quarters of this went on 7 budgets: Transport, Law and order, Defence, Debt interest, and Education (£90bn), Health (£121bn) and Social Security - benefits and pensions (£194bn). The last three total £405bn, which is 59% of the total.

The number of pensioners is set to double in the next 20 years (i.e. by 2031). Older people vote more than younger people, so have more influence on policy. It is difficult to remove benefits.

Winter fuel allowance began in 1997 at £20 p.a. per pensioner. In response to the backlash over the 1999 pension rise of 75p per week, fuel allowance was raised to £100, then went up to £200 in 2000 and in 2004 an extra £100 for those over 70. Seen by most as an entitlement instead of a help to those on low incomes, it is not means tested or targeted; the same applies to bus passes, TV licences and prescription charge remission.

The original expectation was that the NHS would improve the health of the nation, leading to less demand and falling cost. Instead larger populations, big uptake of expanding services and more expensive treatments mean spiralling costs. Professional consensus is that fewer, larger hospitals are more effective both clinically and economically but people prefer local service delivery.

Spending on culture and the arts is often seen as a luxury, though spending (£447m?) is small in comparison with other areas.

Some projects run vastly over budget or are abandoned. The recently built 9 regional fire control centres are empty as the technology does not work; the financing method means an annual cost of £469, which is more than the arts budget.

In 2011, £549bn was raised through taxation, but £692bn spent, leaving a deficit of £143bn. Spending has been higher than revenues for most of the period since WW2 and deficits are higher in recessions, under both Tory and Labour administrations. There has been undue reliance on income from the financial services sector; while at times this has been buoyant, when it goes wrong it goes badly wrong.

There is an inequality in how money is allocated between the home countries, based on a formula devised in the 1970s. In 2011, spending per head of population was £10,212 in Scotland and £8,588 in England. Due to Scottish nationalist campaigns for independence, politicians are reluctant to address this issue.

Some areas of the UK are dependent on public spending. In 2011, in Morpeth more than 50% of the population work in the public sector; these jobs are vulnerable to cuts during recessions.

In 2010-2011 the total raised through taxation was £549bn. Of this, 60% was raised through Income Tax (£152bn), National Insurance (£97) and VAT (£86bn). Other taxes brought in smaller amounts: corporation tax (£43bn), alcohol, tobacco and fuel duty (£46bn), council tax (£26bn), stamp duty on house purchase (£6bn), inheritance tax (£3bn) and air tax (£2bn).

Income tax rates have changed over time. In 1973 the top rate of tax was 75%, rising over time to 85%. In the late 1970s the basic rate was 30% with a top rate of 60%. In 1988 the Conservatives reduced the top rate to 40%. This was raised to 50% in 2009 by Labour.

In 2011 just 1% per cent of the population earn more than £119,000 p.a. Current tax bands means that the 90% of people on lower incomes contribute 47% of income tax revenues; the 10% of people on the lowest incomes contribute just 0.5% of income tax revenues. At the other end, the top 10% of earners contribute 48% and the top 1% of earners contribute 27%.

The need for cuts forced the Coalition government to change tax rates in 2011-2012, scrapping the 10% band and raising the basic rate to 22%. Another proposal is to cut child benefits to people earning more than £44K; as it stands, this means that a single parent over the threshold will lose the benefit, but a household with two incomes will not (since the benefit is paid to one parent only).

What do we get back? The lowest earning 60% of the population get more back than they pay in, while the remaining 40% of the population get less back than they pay in. The top 10% pay 5 times more tax than they get back.

VAT was originally 10% on everything but there are now three categories. Standard rate: the current rate is 20% and applies to goods and services not in the other two categories.Reduced rate: you pay 5% for some items such as children's car seats and gas and electricity for your home.Zero rate: this includes basic food items; books, newspapers and magazines; children’s clothes; some goods provided in special circumstances (e.g. equipment for disabled people).

There appear to be some anomalies. There is no VAT on rabbit food (as rabbits can be eaten) or wild bird food but VAT is charged on dog food. Cakes are subject to VAT but biscuits are regarded as basic food items and are zero rated. Takeaway catering is subject to VAT on hot food but not on cold food.

Tax avoidance (tax dodging) is as old as taxation. People will find loopholes and some people move to countries where taxation is lower. Labour gave tax relief on films made in the UK; TV programme makers cashed in on this by claiming for programmes such as Coronation Street before the loophole was closed.

Housing. A 'mansion tax' has been proposed but some claim this could backfire. Stamp duty on house purchase is greatly reduced if the purchase is made through an off-shore trust.

END

Foetal Development and Gender

The default for a human being is female. During the nine-month foetal stage, hormones secreted by the foetus itself and hormones present in the mother's bloodstream can affect development.

When the foetus is male (XY):

• The male hormone (testosterone) triggers the changes that change a male foetus into a male body, brain, sexual organs and sexual orientation.
• At around 6 weeks, when sexual identity is determined, the male foetus develops special cells which produce male hormones. 
• There is a big surge of male hormones at adolescence (4 times greater than in infancy or boyhood).

When the foetus is female (XX):

• A female foetus exposed to male hormones in the womb cane have a 'male' brain in a female body.
• An rare abnormality of the adrenal gland results in secretion of a substance akin to male hormone, which often results in the formation of under-developed male genitalia plus a normal set of internal female reproductive organs. A high enough concentration can result in the baby  being born looking male; so they are brought up as a boy, and the problem is only diagnosed when they fail to develop at puberty and genetic tests reveal they are XX.
• In Turner's syndrome, the child has only a single X chromosome, which results in exageratedly female behaviour, due to the fact that the ovaries of an XX female produce tiny amounts of male hormone.

Various sources
 

Speedy Gnocchi

Pushed for time?

Try frying gnocchi straight from the pack in a couple of tablespoons of olive oil. Toss occasionally until golden. Season well and serve with roast meats.

In Good Housekeeping, October 2015

Action Groups Post Referendum

The groups listed below include campaign groups for staying in the EU which are continuing their work post-referendum and new action groups set up by Remain supporters following the UK-EU vote. (22 August 2016)

Another Europe Is Possible: Launched in Feb. 2016 by activists and campaigners wanting to build a Europe of democracy, human rights, and social justice, who did not believe a British exit from the EU offered a path towards a social, citizen-led Europe. 'Stay in Europe to change Europe’. After the disappointment of the referendum result  they are continuing to campaign during the period of negotiations to defend the four points they highlighted as at risk from Brexit: environmental sustainability, human rights, workplace protections, and free movement. As no plan for exit was presented to the British electorate, they are arguing for a referendum on the terms of exit once they have been negotiated with Europe with an option to remain in the EU if the terms are rejected.
http://www.anothereurope.org/

European Movement: Is co-ordinating several grassroots campaigns, supporting the UK's place in Europe post referendum. It has set out 'Red Lines' - the four key protections we want the UK to retain following the vote to leave the EU - workers’ rights, environmental protections, freedom of movement and access to the single market.
http://euromove.org.uk/

More United: this cross-party initiative has the support of Lord Ashdown, Jonathon Porritt and Caroline Criado-Perez, and is looking at fielding candidates in the next general election. The initiative is not a political party, nor an attempt to create a new centrist one on the model of the SDP in the 1980s. But if the movement were to succeed in attracting subscribers to a website, and attracting funding, it could intervene in politics by recommending (and supporting financially) specific candidates at the next election. (The initiative was expected to take up the theme of “more in common” but then decided on More United as its name.)
Liberals, celebrities and EU supporters set up progressive movement. The Guardian, 19 July 2016

Save the Single Market: They say that the vote to leave the European Union has revealed very different views of Britain's place in the world, but that the majority of British people want to remain part of the European Single Market, with two-thirds of voters believing that this should be the top priority for British politicians negotiating with the EU and that the government must act to secure the UK's place in the world’s biggest economic bloc.
http://savethesingle.market/

Britain Stronger in Europe: A movement campaigning to get Britain the best deal from Europe.

http://www.strongerin.co.uk/#UPYkFqPV3xGDz3jV.97

Vote for Europe. A mass tactical voting plan has been launched to head off Brexit by supporting parliamentary candidates who oppose it and targeting those in favour. The scheme has been set up by David Walsh. "The way to put pressure on an MP's seat is to pledge support to candidates who will keep us in the EU. How they do that, we leave to them. They got us into this mess. They can get us out. We can force a U-turn before the election by putting hundreds of MP's seats at risk."
http://www.voteforeurope.org.uk/

END

Statins, Muscle Pain and Vitamin D levels

Studies are starting to show that statin users are at higher risk of vitamin D deficiency.

Your body requires cholersterol to synthesise vitamin D naturally.

Statins, which block cholesterol from entering the bloodstream and cause the body to produce less cholesterol, are thought to impact on your bodies ability to process vitamin D.

Reserchers have identified a link between statin users and vitamin D deficiency, with muscular pain being the most dominant. A recent study (134 people) who were intolerant of statins due to muscle pains and had low vitamin D levels, showed that taking vitamin D supplements helped over 88% of them to tolerate the statin without recurrence of their pain when treatment was restarted. After two years, 95% were still able to tolerate the statin while taking vitamin D supplements.

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/nbu.12185/abstract

Feature in Healthspan's Lifespan: breaking news issue April 2016.

Voting Figures UK-EU Referendum

Various figures are quoted in analyses of the Referendum result.

First, an update on this post as it seems that some of the figures originally quoted were not accurate. The following figures are taken from the Office of National Statistics.

17.4 million voted to Leave.
16.2 million voted to Remain.
Note that an unknown number of voters decided to make a protest vote, assuming that the overall result would be Remain.

The voting population at that time was 56.1 million. That means that:
31% voted to Leave
28.9% voted to Remain.
40.1% did not vote.

Possible reasons for not voting:

• Not registered to vote (especially young voters who typically move address fairly often and don't get round to registering every time they move).
• Anyone with literacy problems.
• Those who don't vote in elections as they think their vote isn't going to count due to first past the post system.
• Those who are uninterested in politics/elections. 

Leave voters were more likely to be elderly.

Remain voters were more likely to be young, and would be the ones to face the result of leaving the EU.

In 2016/17

• 1.45 million young people were aged between 16 and 17, who would now (2019) be able to vote.
• 1.05 million deaths, predominantly the elderly.

END

Original post below, not that these figures were not accurate, see text above.
The official House of Commons analysis can be found at http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7639

From this it seems that:

• Possible voting population = 46,506,013
• Votes cast = 33,577,342 (turnout 72.2%)

• Votes cast for Leave = 17,410,742 (51.9%)
• Votes cast for Remain = 16,141,241 (38.1%)
• Margin of Leave over Remain = 3.8%
• NB: An unknown number of people have reported that they wanted to stay in the EU but voted Leave as a protest vote against the government.

• Possible voting population = 46,506,013
• Number of voters who did not vote = 27.8%
• Leave vote as % of eligible voters = 37.4%
• Remain vote as % of eligible voters = 34.7%
• Margin of Leave over Remain = 2.7%

My thoughts: Those who did not vote therefore had an effect on the result. Their reasons for not voting include: not being registered, do not usually vote (either by decision or due to literacy issues), did not expect the result to favour Leave, or it did not matter to them whether we were in or out.

END

UK Politics and Finances

There is currently (2016) a fundamental fracture in the political sytem in the UK. In England and Wales, neither of the major parties can count on any sort of loyalty. In Scotland, the Labour party is seen as having failed to represent a huge swathe of the electorate, on which it historically depended. Political alienation appears to have boosted the Leave vote.

In most other European nations, political parties and campaigns are largely financed by the state. In the UK, parties are largely funded by millionaires, corporations and trade unions, all with vested interests. Politicians insist that donors have no influence on policy, but consciously or unconsciously, policies follow the money.

During the five years before the last (2015) election, 41% of private donations to political parties came from just 76  people.

Before the 2015 election, 27 of the 59 richest hedge fund managers sponsored the Conservatives. The Chancellor then gave  special exemption from stamp duty on stock market transactions by hedge funds, depriving the public sector of around £145m per year.

One of the many reasons for the post-referendum Labour crisis is the desertion of its large private donors. 'Jeremy Corbyn is not remotely interested in whether such people are supporting the party or not'.

George Monbiot proposed:

• Each party to charge same fee for membership (a modest amount -perhaps £20).
• The state to match this money at a fixed ratio.
• No other funding allowed.
• Referendums: the state to provide an equal amount to each side.

Source: George Monbiot (http://www.monbiot.com/2016/07/14/soul-traders/)

Names

Forename
Surname = supername (i.e. additional name) = Nom de famille (Fr)
Patronymic = son of / daughter of

Russian: middle name is patronymic
# Lev Nikolayevich Tolstoy
# Maya Mikhailovna Plissetskaya

Hebrew
# Simon bar Jonas (bar = 'son of' in Aramaic)
# Joshua ben Hananiah (ben = 'son of' in Hebrew)

Icelandic: the patronymic serves as the surname, which therefore changes every generation.

Amharic: child's given name + father's given name


Naming a parent after a child (teknonymy) is less common but is widespread in the Arab world where a parent is often called 'mother of xx' or 'father of xx'.

In Europe the use of two names dates only from the Middle Ages (previously only one name was used) and in some parts of Europe, the use of two names did not occur until the 19th century.

In most European languages the family name follows the given name, but the reverse is the case in Hungarian and Chinese.

In English patronymics are used only as suffixes and prefixes of the family name and this is common throughout Europe.
# Robertson # Scottish Mc/MAc # Irish O' # Welsh Ap # Polish -ski # Greek poulos(m)/poulou(f) #

In some countries a middle name is regularly used. In Europe middle names are less common unless acquired at Roman Catholic confirmation.

If there is a sequence of names there is a difference in level of importance. In Britain the first name is the most important forename but in Germany the name nearest the surname is the most important (i.e. Johann Wolfgang Schmidt would usually be referred to as Wolfgang).

Given names. Britain and the USA permit any name as a given name. In France and Germany there are lists of approved names that must be used if a child is to be legally recognised.

Various sources, not recorded

White Flecks on My Laundry

If you see tiny white flecks on your just washed laundry, the most likely cause is washing powder that has not dissolved properly.

Check on your detergent packet that you are using the right quantity of powder for the type of water in your area.

Try running an extra rinse cycle on dark loads or reducing the size of the load.

If the problem happens when you run a quick-wash programme, it is likely that the powder has not had enough time to dissolve; it is better to use a liquid detergent for short wash cycles.

Various sources

The Aarhus Programme for Deradicalisation

The Aarhus Model aims to dissuade young people from going to fight for al-Qaeda or Islamic State. Thirty travelled to Syria in 2013 but only two in the first half of 2015.

Somalian born Ahmed (25) moved to Denmark aged six, enjoyed playing football, did well in school, learnt Danish. After a family pilgrimage to Mecca, he became more religious. Wearing traditional Islamic dress, he was defensive and argumentative when baited by his Danish classmates, who became afraid he was an extremist and the school raised the alarm. Police, with his permission, searched his home and checked his email and social media accounts and he missed the end of year exams.

Angry, he listened to friends at the mosque, and they watched jihadi videos online. It was suggested he go to Pakistan. When the police contacted him, he spoke of his plans to visit Pakistan; they then suggested he first talk to ‘Mahmoud’, a fellow Muslim. Initially reluctant, Mahmoud's quiet, logical answers convinced him that he could be a good Muslim who doesn't hurt innocent people. After high school Ahmed went to university and has married. He hopes to be mentor himself one day.

An extensive network including parents, social workers, teachers, youth club workers, outreach workers and the police may raise the alarm about a young person who is being radicalised. The Aarhus Model can offer young people returning from Syria the opportunity to reintegrate into Danish society, provided they've committed no offence abroad, and provides mentoring for those intent on going to Syria, to persuade them not to travel. Parents of these people take part in self-help groups.

Source: How I was de-radicalised by Tim Mansel, BBC World Service, Aarhus. 2 July 2015 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-33344898

DIY Buttermilk

Your recipe calls for buttermilk but you don't have any?

Add 1 tablespoon of lemon juice or white wine vinegar to whole milk and sest aside for 10 minutes. The curdled milk will work as a perfect substitute.

In Good Housekeeping, October 2015

Leave and Remain Choose Different Brands

A new perspective on the Leave/Remain divide comes from the world of advertising. Researchers looked at the data gathered by the polling organisation YouGov and drew up lists of the brands which are most highly regarded or used by Leave and Remain voters. (Read article by Emily James in the advertising trade paper Campaign.)

The raw data came from the tens of thousands of people whose opinions on a range of subjects - including their response to around 1,200 brands - are closely tracked by YouGov on an ongoing basis. Since the referendum around 108,000 of those individuals have also been asked how they voted. The preferences of those who abstained in the referendum were not analysed. The top 10 brand lists are most indicative of how people voted. 

Top 10 brands of  Leave voters: 1. HP Sauce 2. Bisto 3. ITV News 4. The Health Lottery 5. Birds Eye 6. Iceland 7. Sky News 8. Cathedral City (cheese) 9. PG Tips (tea) 10. Richmond sausages.

Top 10 brands of Remain voters: 1. BBC.co.uk 2. BBC iPlayer 3. Instagram 4. London Underground 5. Spotify 6. Airbnb 7. LinkedIn 8. Virgin Trains 9. Twitter 10. EasyJet.

Brand choices are complex and demographics such as age and income play a key role, but even accounting for these factors, by comparing brand choices of voters in the same demographic group, the same pattern emerges. For example, the brand choices of Leave and Remain voters in the 18-34 age bracket look remarkably similar to the list above with at least three brands on each side in the top 10.

Emily James sees the brands in the lists as embodying starkly different sets of characteristics. Leave Brands are more likely to be seen as traditional, straightforward, simple, down-to-earth, good value and friendly, while Remain Brands are more likely to be seen as progressive, up-to-date, visionary, innovative, socially responsible, and intelligent.

The psephologist John Curtice, professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde, was not surprised by the results.“This piece of analysis reveals a division between Old Britain vs New Britain, of an older, traditional more working class Britain vs a younger more digitally connected, more internationally facing generation. Those who voted Leave are inclined to prefer a culture that is distinctively British and in which they and their friends grew up. It feels familiar and comfortable to them." Brand choices from the Remain camp were just as indicative of the "much more digitally connected, younger and highly educated demographic" that supplied the core of support for the EU.

"The BBC website is one of the most visited news websites in the UK which stresses the digital outlook of this group, many of whom probably do not buy newspapers regularly."

Emily James believes the research provides pointers on how to make Britain a little less disunited. There are several brands who appeal equally to the Leave and Remain sides, including Money Saving Expert, NSPCC, TK Maxx and M&S, which are all examples of brands that champion something of importance to a wide range of people - whether it is "being savvy", protecting those who are vulnerable, or getting good quality at great prices.

BBC Trending blog by Megha Mohan & Ed Main: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-trending-36970535

Irrationality

Irrationality: the enemy within by Stuart Sutherland
[Published by Pinter & Martin Ltd.; 20th anniversary ed edition (30 July 2013)]

A very revealing read.The blue headings give the chapter titles, the text the points that struck me as most important.

Wrong impressions: Judging by the first thing that comes to mind. Publicity can influence jusgement; contrary to popular belief you are 40 time more likely to die in 1 hour cycling on main roads than in 1 hour of fairground rides. First encounters colour later assessments - first time you meet someone who is in a bad mood, you keep that impression even when later they are pleasant. Good looking people often thought to have better mind, sense of humour, athletic ability, but there is no actual correlation. Exam scripts tend to be marked higher with good handwriting and if examinee name shows they are male.

Obedience: USA Milgram experiment giving electric shocks showed ingrained obedience to authority even when this involves hurting other people. Junior doctors would not voice disagreement of treatment decisions by a more senior doctor. Massacres carried out by people with strong training in obedience and initial orders given by someone removed from the actual scene.

Conformity: In group situations we are more likely to agree with the opinions of others who speak first, even if we first had doubts. A decision publicly announced is more likely to be acted on - a factor in success of weightwatchers and addiction help groups.

Crowd panic: If all behave in an orderly way, more will be saved; there is less panic if someone in authority is present. Panic spreads - seeing others push makes you feel you can/should too. Systematic and pointless violence common in crowds (lynch mobs, football supporters). Also when several people in a situation that needs help, each feels less responsibility than if they were alone.

In groups and out groups: Group attitudes are more extreme than those of individuals. Leaders pick advisors and assistants of similar views, but not those of higher intelligence and speaking skills. Groups find ways to identify themselves (clothing, hairstyles) and may come to dislike or despise other groups. prejudice usually accompanied by use of stereotypes, noticing what supports already held views.

Organisational folly: Following traditional practice is easy, changing things is harder. Promotion may be by seniority and a job for life. Organisational structure may encourage overspending - the sum allocated for a year depends on the amount spent last year. Companies often hang on to loss making sections.

Misplaced loyalty: Look at several houses, choose one and buy it, then need to justify commitment so exagerate good points and minimise bad points, only acknowledging these is major defects or problems occur. Refusal to abandon a useless project in which a (often large) sum of money has been invested.

Misuse of rewards and punishments: Being rewarded for doing an activity may give less incentive to do the activity unless a reward is given. Those who win prizes may come to work less hard subsequently; those who lose experience failure. Pupils learn best when remarks are to help improve. Better results from surgery when people have participated in decisions.

Drive and emotion: Stress, rewards, punishments and strong emotions reduce flexibility in thinking. With piece work, concentrate on quality not quantity.

Ignoring the evidence: People tend to seek confirmation of a view or theory but should be trying to disprove it.

Distorting evidence: Two groups given results of studies that supported both views thought the studies favouring their view were more convincing and better conducted.

Making a wrong connection: Psycholanalysis is still used despite evidence it is useless; simply having someone listen to you does as well as therapy. In making a decision you need to know (1) A+B, (2) A but not B), (3) B but not A, and (4) neither A nor B.

Mistaken connections: Evidence shows telling patients what to expect (length of operation, pain they might experience) means they complain less about pain, need fewer sedatives and recover more quickly.

Mistaking the cause: Earlier correlations between (a) eating saturated fats and blood cholesterol levels and (b) personality types and heart attacks are not as strong as it was thought.

Misinterpreting data: Heavy smoking increases the risk of death from lung cancer by ten, but for every death from cancer, two will die from heart disease. The bigger the sample, the more likely it will reflect true frequency.

Inconsistent decisions and bad bets: To identify a car fault, a mechanic should know the probability of each fault and how long it takes to find and check high probability and low time faults first. When giving opinion on 4 or 5 point scale, most people favour the middle points.

Overconfidence: 95% of UK motorists thought they were better than average drivers. Most people think they will live longer than the average.

Risks: Failure to take into account the limitations of the human operator (e.g. poor design of dials and screens). In UK compulsory seat belt wearing reduced deaths of car occupants but increased risk to pedestrians and cyclists as drivers took more risks.

False inferences: Trainee pilots praised for very good flight did less well on next flight; those reprimanded for very bad flights did better next time. Extremes both exceptional - regression to the mean.

Failure of intuition: Listing pros and cons before making a decision allows you to take account of more evidence and alternatives. Specific tests are more useful than job interviews as determining suitability for jobs.

Utility: Growths in kidney are tested by either aspiration (low risk) tests for cysts or arteriography for tumours (2 days in hospital and risk of blood clots - doctors and patients agree it is 10 times as bad a procedure) . Negative result of either test does not rule out other condition, so aspiration should be done first unless likelihood of tumour is greater than 1/11. Many medical treatments have unpleasant side effects so Quality Adjusted Life Year (QALY) try to establsih how many years with a given disability are equivalent in people's preferences to one year of normal life. This figure is then compared with the probablities of death, complications or side effects of an operation or drug treatment.

Paranormal: People who believe in the paranormal almost certainly base this on too small a sample.

Causes, cures and costs: Under stress people tend to act on impulse. Conformity and embarrassment probably partially inborn as human survival depends on being a member of a group. However, group allegience in modern society can lead to inappropriate and irrational behaviour. There is evidence that learning one subject does not make it easier to learn a second unless content overlaps. A-level teaching in the UK emphasises rote learning with little stress on rational thinking. Multiple choice questions allow no scope for thought and depend entirely on memory. exams with a fixed time limit are likely to encourage impulsice and inflexible thinking.

From another source - not recorded
Keeping secrets: Attempts to keep information secret are not very successful. Outside commerce, ideas are to be drawn on and the inventor of an idea gains rather than loses if an idea is taken up by others.

END

Post-Brexit Poll 22-25 July 2016

A post-referendum survey, conducted for the New European newspaper found the result has left people less confident about their futures. The poll of 1,148 people was carried out online between 22 and 25 July 2016. The results were weighted by age, sex and socio-economic group and voters were also weighted to match the 2015 Westminster and 2016 EU referendum results. Panelbase is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Here are some of the findings.

Brexit negotiations: 71% feel having Theresa May as PM strengthens our position.

Foreign Secretary: 68% feel having Boris Johnson as Foreign Secretary weakens our position on Brexit.

Confidence about the future: 38% less confident, 31% no difference, 31% more confident.

Better or worse off outside EU: 41% worse off, 36% better off, 23% don't know.

Safer or not outside EU: 42% more safe, 31% less safe, 27% don't know.

Feel more or less European post-vote: 77% made no difference, 15% feel less European, 8% feel more European.

What does Brexit mean: 40% think it is leaving the single market with restrictions on freedom of movement, 29% that the UK would stay in or have free trade with the market and free movement of people, 16% believe that it is staying in or trading freely with the single market and free movement of people.

The survey found no great evidence of Regrexit - Leave voters changing their minds. [Not unexpected. There is a well-known puychological reason for this; if you make a significant purchase or change in your life, you will unconsciously look for reasons to support the decision you made.]

The poll found that the nation is still deeply divided. For the Remain voters, the key issue was the economy, and for Leave voters it was immigration. Of Brexit voters, 42% had no friends from foreign backgrounds, compared with 29% of those who voted Remain.

The New European, issue 29 July-4 Aug 2016

Bathtime Facts

Taking a hot bath lowers blood pressure (body loses heat by dilating blood vessels at the surface of the skin, causign a drop in overall resistance to blood flow and so a fall in pressure).

Very hot water is less relaxing. In 15 mins in water at 43C body temperature increases by a degree or two, and pulse rises from 75 beats per minute up to around 115 beats. Return to normal temperature takes about half an hour.

Warm baths aid recovery from exercise by relaxation and improved circulation. The latter aids the dispersal of lactic acid, the end product of anaerobic exercise, and may help to remove fluid that seeps into tired muscles from blood vessels during exercise, and in so doing, helps alleviate aches and pains.

The most soothing temperature is 38C (100F).

Sudden exposure to cold water causes a rise in blood pressure and may stop the heart. Cold showers seem to create a mild feeling of euphoria.

Dangers: Fainting in hot water because of diversion of blood to skin. Heatstroke in a very hot bath if room so steamy that sweat cannot evaporate to cool the skin. A body temperature of 42C to 43C can be fatal.

Source unknown, date not recorded

Boris Johnson Blunders

Apart from his gaffes in the media, Boris Johnson made spectacular blunders while Mayor of London.

Bikes, buses and bridges: Boris Johnson’s nine biggest design blunders by Oliver Wainwright

The Thames cable car was to be a vital transport link and a thrilling attraction, its £25m cost paid entirely by private sponsorship. Costs ballooned to £60m (£24m paid by the taxpayer), while sponsor Emirates airline had its name on the tube map in perpetuity. After opening it was discovered there was no demand, and two years later it didn’t have a single regular user.

The New Routemaster with its nostalgic design, conductors and back door was intended to be more fuel efficient, with all costs borne by the industry. In fact, Transport for London (TfL) paid the £11m development cost, and each bus cost twice as much as a regular double-decker. With faulty air-conditioning and lacking openable windows it becomes unbearable in high temperatures, is just as polluting as the old buses and the cost of a second conductor was too expensive.

The cycle hire scheme, originally planned by his predecessor Ken Livingstone, was to be funded by sponsorship (initially by Barclays, now by Santander) but the deal only covers a fraction of the running costs, leaving TfL with an £11m annual bill (the equivalent scheme in Paris makes £12m a year for the city).

Johnson initiated the project to build the ArcelorMittal Orbit, a tangle of steel by Anish Kapoor for the 2012 Olympic Games. This privately sponsored ‘gift’ costs Londoners £10,000 a week to maintain. A £3m slide was recently added in the hope of recouping costs.

With the London 2012 Olympic bid won by his predecessor, Johnson claimed credit for the regeneration of the Lower Lea Valley. But the pledge of 10,000 new homes resulted in just 6,000 and the athletes’ village costing £1.1bn was sold for about half that to Qatar. Instead of the promised 50% affordable homes, with sites for community-led housing projects, plots were sold to the usual volume house builders, with just 30% affordable.

Johnson criticised the 27 tall buildings passed by Ken Livingstone but during his mayoralty, then approved a further 436 towers. Many projects may be halted due to Brexit.

Johnson boasts of building more affordable homes than Livingstone did – but the definition of “affordable” changed during his tenure. Previously linked to local incomes, itcan now mean up to 80% of market rate. Westminster council warned this would mean council tenants in a three-bedroom home needed an income of £109,000 a year but half its social rented households have an income of less than £12,000 a year. Johnson also abandoned Livingstone’s 50% affordable target, allowing developers to justify levels as low as 10%.

The mayor has the power to “call in” major schemes deemed to be of “strategic importance” to London and overturn decisions made by the local planning authority. Of the 14 schemes Johnson called in, 13 were decided in favour of the developer. Almost two-thirds breached the mayor’s own density guidelines. He actively prevented councils from providing low-rented housing where there was urgent local need for it, and set a dangerous precedent for bypassing the democratic planning process. The result: a city where developers call the tune.

Boris Watch also noted:

In 2007, he claimed that Bendy Buses “wipe out cyclists, there are many cyclists killed every year by them”. BorisWatch reported: the real figure was none killed by 2008 and a further none by the time the last bendy left in December 2011. During this period around 45 cyclists had died in accidents not involving bendy buses.

https://www.boriswatch.co.uk/2012/03/28/great-boris-lies-3-bendy-buses-kill-cyclists/

END

Body Clocks and Sleep

Sleep habits can affect hormone peaking. Some people have more flexible rhythms and adjust better to unusual work schedules and are good candidates for space missions. Age affects flexibility; it is less easy to adjust in middle age.

Larks feel lively in the morning; body temperature cycles peak early in the day with large differences between top and bottom of the cycle. Suffer more from disturbed sleep if they work at night and when they fly across time zones from east to west. Owls have body cycles that peak later in the day than larks.

Every person has their own typical sleep length, around 8 hours. Sleep has two components - duration and placement. On free schedule study, people slept in fragments, with night time sleep periods typically double the length of day time ones. Between 7am and 2pm or 3pm a 'sleepability gate' opens every 90 to 120 minutes; after 3pm a wide sleepability gate opens and if you have a siesta during this period it is easier to wake from REM sleep than during the night. REM (rapid eye movements) sleep blocks muscle movements and learning memeory and attention stop (impossible to learn while asleep).

Jeremy Campbell: Winston Churchill's Afternoon Nap.