Factfulness

Factfulness by Hans Rosling with Ola Rosling and Anna Rosling Ronnlund (Sceptre, 2018)

This book shows that the world is in a better position than we (and people in other countries) think, and explains why the way our minds work can be the reason why.

The human brain has evolved over millenia, and we are hard-wired with instincts (e.g. jumping to conclusions quickly, liking gossip and stories and craving fat and sugar) that helped our ancestors survive - but these instincts serve us less well today.

A low child mortality rate in a country tells us that their parents and their society protect them from dangers such as germs, starvation and violence, that most families have enough food, their sewage systems don't leak into drinking water, there is good access to primary healthcare and their mothers can read and write. Since 1960, all over the world, child mortality rates have dropped.

Humans tend to divide all things into two distinct and often conflicting groups - with a big gap in between. In 1965, 15 'developed' countries had just 2% of the world's population; women had fewer than 3.5 children, and child survival was above 90%. In the remaining 125 countries women had more than 5 children on average, and child deaths were common. Today families are small and child deaths rare for 85% of the world's population. Life expectancy in low income countries is 62 years, and most people have enough to eat, access to improved water and their children are vaccinated. Only in exceptional places (Afghanistan and South Sudan) is the rate of girls finishing primary school as low as 20%.

Only 9% of the world population lives in low income countries, but even these have better conditions than Afghanistan, Somalia and the Central African Republic, which are the worst places in which to live (in 2018). The majority (75%) of people live in middle income countries.

The terms 'developed' and 'developing' countries are unhelpful and it is better to use four income levels. At Level 1 (1 billion people), life is hard, with large families, water has to be fetched from a distance, cooking is done over a fire, poor soil means crops are poor, and you can't afford healthcare. At Level 2 (3 billion people), you can buy food you didn't grow, keep chickens, have a bike so it is easier to fetch water or get to work; electricity helps your children do homework but it is not reliable enough for a freezer. But illness could send you back to Level 1 again. At Level 3 (2 billion people), you have one or more paid jobs and can save money. You have a cold water tap, stable electrical line, perhaps a motorcycle, so you can go further for better paid work. Your savings help with accident and illness. Your children start high school and may well end up with much better paid jobs. At Level 4 (1 billion people), you are rich. With more than twelve years of education, you have been on an aeroplane, have hot and cold water indoors, can eat out once a month, and buy a car. Often it takes several generations for a family to move from L1 to L4, but it is possible.

Averages can mask reality. Average income in different countries can imply that all incomes in one country (e.g. US) are higher than in another (e.g. Mexico) but the reality might be that there is overlap with a proportion of Mexicans earning as much as some Americans.

Our instinct is to focus on the bad rather than the good, because of the misremembering of the past, the selective reporting by journalists, and a feeling that while things are bad, it is heartless to say they are getting better. While we should still be concerned by plane crashes, endangered species, crazy dictators and the like, we should still be able to accept that we are making progress, but the media and activists rely on drama to get our attention.

But today the life expectancy of the world is 70 years and the number of deaths per year from natural disasters has decreased to less than half over the last century. Today, 80% of the world's children have been vaccinated against some form of disease and worldwide, 30 year-old men have spent 10 years in school on average, and 30 year-old women 9 years on average. 80% of people worldwide have some access to electricity. In the US, the crime rate has been on a downward trend since 1990.

We tend to assume that things develop and continue in a straight line fashion. But the Ebola outbreak in 2014 was difficult to contain until it was realised that people were infecting others before showing symptoms themselves, so the number of cases was doubling every day. Once you know the cause, you can deal with the issue or realise that things are already changing for the better.

The world population is increasing very fast at present, so people are rightly concerned. But the evidence is that the rate is slowing. There are 2 billion children (aged 0 to 15) in the world today. UN experts predict that in the year 2100 there will still be only 2 billion children. But they also predict that by 2100, the world population will be increased by 4 billion people, as there will be more adults (age 15 to 74), so the shape of the population curve will change. These extra people come from children and young people who have already been born. Since the trend for smaller families is already well under way and will continue as income levels rise worldwide, the global population is predicted to stabilise in 2060.

However, people still believe that in many countries people have huge families, whereas the facts show that worldwide people are already having fewer children. The exception is those few countries still experiencing extreme poverty. Our problem is that we see where we are at present - and assume a straight line increase, whereas population levels are on a downward curve. But it will take three generations to stabilise.

The human fear instinct can also distort our view of reality. Some fears are hardwired deep in our brains for good reason (snakes, spiders, heights and being trapped in small spaces) as they helped our species to survive in the past. The media focus on disasters makes us feel the world is a dangerous place, even while it has never been less violent or more safe. Even natural disasters kill fewer people because more are better prepared, better educated and live in safer environments. While difficult to believe with media coverage of specific areas, even conflicts and fatalities from conflicts are at a record low. In the US, the risk of being killed in a car accident or homicide is 50 times higher than the being killed by a terrorist. Things can be bad, but also still getting better.

We also tend to focus on the individual victim when it makes more sense to make changes to benefit more people. Training village health workers and get as many children as possible vaccinated will do more good that providing expert care in hospitals that few can access. In 1950, 14.4 million children died before their first birthday. In 2017 the figure was 4.2 million - still too high but what a reduction.

Use the 80/20 rule. By understanding what is the biggest factor, you stand the best chance of changing things for the good. In most budgets 20% of items account for 80% of the spend, and confusions or missing decimal points can cause problems. Of the 7 billion people alive today, 1b are in the Americas, 1b are in Europe, 1b are in Africa and 4b are in Asia but 7 out of 10 people get this wrong. Arguing about emissions per nation is pointless; we need to state emissions per person.

Beware of 'the majority' as this can be as little as 51%; get the actual percentage. The generalisation instinct ends up stereotyping people and places, often incorrectly. Fewer pregnancies result in roughly two years less menstruation. Manufacturers of menstrual pads are dreaming up new needs for menstrual pads (thinner, for specific needs of 300 million women) in Level 4 countries, while ignoring the need for low-cost pads reliable throughout the day for the 2 billion menstruating women in Level 2 and 3 countries. Likewise, big pharmaceutical companies focus on developing new, revolutionary, life-prolonging medicine and are failing to reach huge markets in Level 2 and 3 countries where millions of people need drugs that have already been discovered at affordable prices.

In some countries you come across half-built houses. The owners are not disorganised, but can't get loans to finance building, and money can be stolen or lose value through inflation. So they build the lower story, then buy individual bricks as and when they can afford them and eventually build the upper floor.

The US spends more than twice as much per head of population on health care as other Level 4 countries, but life expectancy is 3 years less than them; 39 other countries have longer life expectancies. The reason is the lack of basic public health insurance.

When something bad happens we want to find who or what is to blame. We tend to look for bad guys who confirm our existing beliefs. Free, independent and truth-seeking journalism may not be representative.

The urgency instinct makes us want to take immediate action in the face of a perceived imminent danger, when we need to take time to investigate causes and assess the best actions.

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People Fixing Our World

This is a series available on the BBC website. All are interesting but some are really worth recommending.

Treasure in the Toilet [BBC video 24 March 2020 available for one year]
Human sewage contains lots of valuable nutrients, so should we be recycling it? One of these nutrients is phosphorus, a key ingredient in fertiliser. It is an essential but limited resource which cannot be replaced by any other element.Once it finds its way into the sea it becomes impossible to recover.

We all excrete about half a kilogram of phosphorus a year, making cities a potentially rich source to the element. Phosphorus recovery from wastewater, sewage sludge (up to 40% to 50%) and the ash from incinerated sewage sludge (can reach up to 90%).

In the Netherlands human sludge is already being processed to recover phosphorus and recycle it into a high-tech fertiliser which will not leach into the environment.

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Bicarbonate of Soda Cleaning Tips

Bicarbonate of soda is gently abrasive and a great natural de-odoriser. Use it to:

• Absorb food odours in the fridge. Fill a ramekin dish with bicarb and leave it to work its magic.
• Stop trainers smelling. Sprinkle a little bicarb inside them, then tap it out before you next put them on.
• Freshen stale sponges. Mix with water and leave the sponge to soak.
• De-odorise carpets, upholstered furniture and even pet beds.  Sprinkle on, leave for 15 mins and then vacuum up.
• Clean counter tops, stainless steel sinks and utensils. Mix into a past with water and scrub.
• Remove tarnish from sterling silver. Make up a paste using three parts bicarb to one part water and apply with a lint-free cloth or paper towel, then rinse.

Source: In feature on cleaning tips in Good Housekeeping, May 2019

Post Truth

Post-Truth: Why we have reached peak bullshit and what we can do about it by Evan Davis. Little, Brown, 2017

Why does so much exist, even when we recognise it as 'transparently drivel'? Condemning it achieves nothing and undermines trust and increases cynicism. This book asks whether it might have some other underlying purpose, beyond direct persuasion. Our culture is currently characterised by a pervasive tendency of those in authority to overstate their case, but also the bad habits of modern communication evolved for a reason.

Facts and Lies. Worryingly, public figures are happy to state facts that are not true, or talk about alternative facts. Fake news stories are shared across social media before someone notices that the original source is far from reliable. Apart from straightforward facts (the sun is shining), we have to judge whether a statement is true. Facts can be probably true, or partly true, or true only in some contexts.

• The near-lie uses the right words to give the wrong impression - the art of picking your words carefully in order to mislead. 
• Economical with the truth: the absence of relevant information.
• Spin - a favourable interpretation of the facts. How the facts are joined up, how much weight is put on certain facts, or a false interpretation of data.
• Deception through self-delusion. The facts might be untrue, but someone sincerely but unreasonably believes an alternative version. 

Nonsense and Gibberish. When a speaker attempts to get us to believe something by not giving us the full picture. These assertions are designed to create a favourable impression of the speaker, and to generate a certain reaction from the listeners.

• The empty assertion is not only untrue, but bears little relation to the facts, and there is minimal effort to tie it to the facts at all.
• Obfuscation is where you have good reason to say nothing, but you don't want to admit this so you say something. It can be useful in diplomatic exchanges (e.g. between countries) but in other cases it comes across as politicians refusing to answer the question.
• Gibberish and needlessly complex language. Wine reviews, for example, use a complex vocabulary but only convey indirect information. 

Actions can also give messages, and as with all messages can be true or false.

• Manufactured behaviour in practice: smiling for a photograph is a social convention, displays of Christmas decorations or the clothes we wear can imply status. If a government policy is not met, a review can come up with a new definition and a new target.
• The manufactured action is designed to imitate a real action, in the hope we will find it meaningful. And we can be easily misled, as we tend to assume certain things go together - a good cover implies the magazine content is also good.

Economics has a role to play. For example, a degree (which costs in time, effort and cash) implies something about the quality of the job applicant. Consumers want to know about the quality of goods they might buy, while manufacturers will always want to say quality is high.

• 'Cheap talk' has more value when there is close alignment between parties. Costly signalling is needed when interests are not aligned.
• A lot of advertising is not cheap. This signals that the product itself has quality. And it makes sense for a good product to have the best advertising - as we'll find out how good it is once we've bought it - and will make our feelings known if it doesn't perform to expectations.

Hidden messages mean that the untruthful and unclear can still be revealing.

• At a friend's dinner party the dessert is burnt, the host apologises and the guests try and reassure the host that its ok really. The host will be aware that the guests are being nice about the mess up, but still be annoyed with himself for bungling the baking. This is socially mandated lying.
• Subtle messages are often sent on occasions where diplomacy is required. They might minimise past problems and confrontations, but are important in re-establishing good relations where blunt statements would not help.
• The choice of language often conveys something about the speaker. Academic jargon is a badge of membership of a community. You can tell if a politician is simply supporting his party line, rather than believing in the position itself.

Politicians have always faced an inevitable vote-limiting quandary that by increasing their appeal to one group, they often decrease their appeal to other groups. Today they openly tailor a pitch to a selected segment of the population with fantasies or myths that particularly appeal to them. Is this someone like me? Is this someone who understands someone like me? E.g. An exaggerated claim on the level of unemployment sends a signal to the target group. You don't need to be taken in by the claim to still want to support X. A sense of tribalism is fuelled by by feelings of grievance.

Pricing items at £3.99 or £199.99 or £9,995 pays off because they look to be less than £4, £200 or £1,000, even though we are aware that the actual difference is minimal.

Emotions motivate us to respond to things very quickly. Emotional appeals are strong but can be detached from any objective evidence. Anger has become a political tool. Convincing stories (clarity, consistency and appeal) are also memorable.

The bandwagon. Our species has a herd instinct, so we tend to follow the crowd, learn from what others say or do, and avoid being socially isolated. Clever communicators exploit this. A sale of  'overstock' rather than unsold items; queues outside nightclubs indicate popularity.

Managed expectations. To make people think something is big, get them to expect something that is small. Advance news that the education budget in 2002 would rise by about £10 billion was eclipsed by the actual Budget announcement that the rise would be £12.8 billion. Communicators who are good at dropping in carefully chosen 'anchors' into conversations can affect our judgement. An unreasonable (but not a turn off) price for a second hand car makes any price below that feel like a concession.

Framing. Those in favour of gay marriage refer to equal marriage. No-one is pro- or anti-abortion, they are pro-life or pro-choice. We then judge whether the position conform to my existing views or not. 'Tax relief' implies that tax is a negative thing; renaming it 'corporate welfare tax' or 'selective tax cut' diminishes its appeal - or we might see it as a bribe. One writer sees most political debates as a subliminal competition between the 'strict father' and the 'nurturing parent'; a third or more of the audience favour one or the other, while the big remainder see both sides of the issues.

Insidious or benign? The last five techniques interact and overlap. Ideally you put your pitch in a story, preferably with positive emotional appeal, frame your argument in a favourable way and distract attention from opposite points of view. You shape the argument rather than presenting an intellectually robust case. Herd instincts mean that the more people accept it, the more people will come to accept it, and then once people believe it, they will look for evidence in favour, and so strengthen our belief.

Short-termism. Most businesses need to maintain a long-term reputation, even if this is costly in the short term, but spouting lies and exaggerations can make political sense in the short term as long as you don't are about being caught out later. The long-term approach is to consistently tell the truth and gain people's trust. Promising not to raise taxes becomes false promises when you do raise them. (On the other hand, successful diplomacy often relies on fudging difficult issues in the short-term, to allow a more measured long-term solution.) Politicians campaigning for election are focused only on this election.

Culture and Norms. Understating how long a job will take, will leave an honest quote at a competitive disadvantage. We all want our voice to be heard, but end up with a din or a 'shouty' argument on social media. Journalists have an incentive to over-write stories to grab attention. One group's intensity often provokes a reaction from another group, and a tendency for escalation. Politicians mentioning specific groups unintentionally make others feel excluded.

Limits to the power of persuasion. While it can sometimes pay to be less than straightforward, in the long term facts are important. Reputations can't be built on images. The more something is tried, the less effective it is. Once we've spotted a trick, it no longer works. Shifting opinion on issues like same-sex marriage, or building a high-speed train line can take time; if there is no case, you are unlikely to persuade a majority of the population to back you. There is what you say, what the truth is, what people are predisposed to believe, what they actually believe now, and what they believe when the evidence becomes clearer. PR won't help raise the low esteem in which finance is held; they played a big part in causing a prolonged depression in the West, and only a change of personality, culture and behaviour can help. Warren Buffet's approach to communication is more straightforwardly honest than most, speaks more casually and uses less ceremony. 'Crucially, because he is not trying to manage a message, he does not have to think about what he says'.

Better Bullshit. Relax, don't over-think and avoid coming across as too studied. Having a good story to tell, and presenting it consistently, clearly and without clutter is important. But devising a slogan and repeating it endlessly without regard to context is poor communication. Communicators should, as a default, say what they really believe in as straightforward a way as possible. It is who you are that matters, more than what you say. Jabbing fingers in a televised debate, speaking over rivals, trying to prevail on an issue that matters little to the average voter or speaking defensively, is not attractive to voters. The harder the sell, the less convincing it is. Putting a point gently can be more effective than pushing it, and open-mindedness can be more effective than certainty.

The Discerning Listener. Doctors 'read' the patient to decide how they communicate unpleasant truths. We are subject to wishful thinking and confirmation bias. We need to tell ourselves not to let optimism turn into gullibility. At fraught times in countries that are sharply divided and where people have a strong sense of loyalty to one side of an argument or another, there is perhaps an increased tendency for people to swallow a group line without questioning it. The media should not allow itself to be intimidated, nor should it pick fights for the sake of it. It should freely admit when it gets things wrong, but should never fail to point out inaccuracies, for fall for phoney impartiality (the earth is flat) as that is a disservice to the public. The facts are selected, interpreted and used; sensible media outlets can't fall for 'alternative facts'. As long as people in authority feel they will not get a fair hearing, they have an incentive to disguise mistakes and cover up consequences to their actions.

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