This is an interesting item about the psychology of voting.
Elections are important and interesting. They’re interesting because they involve people, but explaining what they do and why they do it is not always
straightforward. Democratic theory sees the voter as rational person, who weighs up all the evidence and then makes an informed verdict when voting. Actual voters aren’t much like that.
In practice, voters’ choices are swayed by 'emotions as well as reason, salesmen as well as
products, by tribal attachment as well as cool calculation. .... The judgments rendered by the
electorate are sometimes misinformed, and often harsh, but they are
rarely irrational.'
On immigration, many experts see voters as hopelessly
wrong about the numbers coming, the reasons they come and the impact
they have on the economy. But while muddled on the details,
voters respond to the big picture. When migrant numbers go up, more voters are concerned. They notice failed pledges to bring numbers down, and that one important reason for failure was
rising immigration from the EU. 'The growing number of voters who wanted
immigration reduced drew the logical conclusions from all of this: the
old parties had failed on the issue, so they turned to a new one (Ukip);
controlling migration looked close to impossible within the EU, so they
voted to leave.'
This pattern of behaviour is often seen - ignorant about details, but
responding to the big picture. While voters aren’t consistently
rational even on the big picture, usually when they seem to go 'off the rails, there is an interesting logic underlying what they
do, throwing light on the strengths apparently
and weaknesses of how we reason more
generally'.
Politics is an expression of, and a reflection of, who
we are and how we think. The parties will appeal to tribal loyalties, and politicians will appeal to our hearts because decisions are often swayed more by our
emotions. They will 'promise contradictory
things, because voters often demand contradictory things. And even
those who never watch a minute of this will be forming judgments based
on conversations at work, with friends or around the family dinner table
– as well as longer-standing allegiances, identities and beliefs'.
The Guardian, 27 August 2016: Philip Cowley and Robert Ford’s More Sex, Lies and the Ballot Box is published by Biteback on 1 September
