Only the 160,000 or so members of the Conservative Party (CP) will determine who is the next leader of the party, and therefore the next Prime Minister. (This is far less than the nearly 3 million members in the 1950s, and in 2017 the Labour Party had more than 550,000 members.)
Their age, wealth and where they live is not representative of the rest of the country.
While most members of most political parties are fairly middle class, some 86% of CP members are in the top social grade (ABC1).
They are much better off than most voters, and members of other parties.
Around a quarter are or were self-employed.
Nearly half work or used to in the private sector.
Nearly 4 in 10 put their annual income of over £30,000 (1 in 20 at over £100,000)
97% are white, so ethnic minorities are heavily under-represented. (Other parties are also unbalanced.)
70% are male. (Labour, the Green Party and SNP come close to 50/50.)
Average age is 57, but 40% are over 65. (Older than members of most other parties.)
Nearly 60% live in London, the east, south-east and south-west.
On a scale where zero = very left and 10 = very right wing, average voters consider themselves in the centre. Average CP members place themselves at 7.6.
75% believe young people don't have enough respect for traditional values.
Nearly 60% support the death penalty.
33% believe ordinary working people do not get their fair share of the nation's wealth, and that there is one law for the rich and one for the poor.
About half believe big business takes advantage of ordinary people.
28% feel government spending cuts have not gone far enough (down from 55% in 2015).
84% oppose a new referendum on EU membership. (YouGov polling data suggest that the 30,000 or so members who joined in the past year are even more likely to be pro-Brexit.)
How else do they differ? A survey was carried out at the end of 2018.
Brexit:
Ranked most important issue: 60% of all UK voters; 75% CP members
Ranked in top three issues: 74% of all UK voters; 88% CP members
But ranking it highly does not mean everyone has the same views
If there were a Referendum on Remain or No Deal
Remain in EU: 45% of all UK voters; 18% CP members
No deal Brexit: 35% of all UK voters; 76% CP members
**
Only 18% of CP members believed that no deal would not cause serious disruption to supplies and that warnings are exaggerated or invented, but 35% of other voters thought it would and that warnings were realistic, and another 21% were not sure.
If another referendum were held and the vote went for Remain, people would feel:
Betrayed: 26% all voters; 58% CP members.
Angry: 7% all voters; 15% CP members.
Disappointed: 8% all voters; 6% CP members.
Economy: at present unemployment, interest rates and inflation (i.e. price rises) are all pretty low, which could mean that people are relatively relaxed about it. However the survey indicates that it is still an important issue to many.
Top three issue: 36% of all voters; 45% CP members.
Redistribute income from rich to poor: 51% of all voters; 15% CP members (63% opposed the idea).
A recent survey of CP members on (a) raise the higher-tax rate threshold to £80,000, (b) abolish top rate - over £150,000, or (c) improve services instead.
Raise to £80,000: 58% CP members
Abolish top rate: 37% CP members
Improve services: 60% CP members.
Immigration
Top three issue: 27% of all voters; 31% CP members
Another recent survey of CP members indicated that 51% wanted more skilled, well-educated people looking for highly paid jobs, but low-paid, low-skilled workers and Muslim migrants were unpopular.
Crime
Top three issue: 22% of all voters; 29% CP members.
Stiffer sentences given: 67% of all voters; 76% CP members.
Health
Top three issue: 42% all voters; 19% CP members.
Other top three issues
Defence: 12% all voters; 29% CP members
Benefits and universal credit: 23% all voters; 11% CP members.
Education: 15% all voters; 7% CP members
Environment: 18% all voters; 9% CP members.
The issues that will win Conservative member votes are often not those that will go down well with ordinary voters.
Source:
Tory leadership: who gets to choose the UK's next Prime Minister? Prof. Tim Bale,Queen Mary University of London, BBC News website https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48395211
Tory leadership contest: What's on the minds of party members? Prof. Tim Bale, Queen Mary University of London BBC, News website https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48854280
