Church of England in 2014

State of the Church of England 2014

Published in Church Times, issues 31 Jan and 7, 14 and 28 Feb. 2014

33% of the British population identify as C of E or Anglican. Over all age-groups, the C of E remains the largest single religion or denomination. Almost half of those over 60 are Anglicans, but only one in ten for those in their twenties. The numbers identifying as RC are steady (2014) but probably boosted by migration. Orthodox churches are growing but are only 1% of total church attendance.

Church attendance. Of those identifying as Anglican, 83% only attend occasionally. Just 17% are attenders, half attend weekly (unless something stops them) and half attend less regularly (go if nothing stops them).

Anglican identity is not being transmitted to the next generation, but the drop is so rapid that it seems that older people dis-identify with the C of E at some stage in life. Belief in God is also declining but not as fast; people cease to belong or identify with the Church. Many Christians practise personal spirituality but rarely attend church.

Values. There is a gap between wider social values (the status and treatment of women, gay people and children) and the Church’s official teachings resulting in a gulf in values between the over-60s and the under-50s. There is another gap, with most people in Britain being centre-right and Anglicans even further right, while the Church’s teaching is further left of both. The C of E is both more left wing politically and more conservative in morals, and both more paternalistic and more puritanical. When the church speaks on social issues it often does not represent the views of the laity.

Some trends are encouraging. There is growth in Pentecostal churches, immigrant churches, and larger churches (especially in London). Initiatives such as Messy Church, Fresh Expressions, ‘informal churches’, church planting hubs, ‘youth church grown up’, ‘deconstructed churches’, ‘churches on the margins’, ‘context-shaped churches’ and some urban areas. It is not clear whether their success will continue.

The liturgy of Common Worship may be a barrier. Some value its comfort and reassurance, while others dislike it (wanting either Common Prayer or conversely something less traditional and more freeform).

In 2014, there were more than 28,000 licensed ministers, of whom two-thirds receive no stipend. The fall has been greatest among men, partially offset by a 40% rise in female full-time stipendiary clergy. The decline in stipendiary clergy has been off-set by non-stipendiary clergy, which rose between 2002 and 2007 but is now in decline. The majority of full-time Anglican clergy is now aged over 50. Fewer than 100 full-time stipendiary clergy are under 30 and only one in five is a woman. Women are concentrated in non-stipendiary ministry, and more than half of NSMs are women. Retirement and death does not account for all the loss of clergy; some leave ministry (reason why and new employment not known). The number of people in religious orders is now small: 402 in 2014 (down from 641 in 2002).

Lay people still run a great deal of church activities: youth work, prayer ministry, hospital visiting, home groups and school ministry (e.g. Open the Book). Those doing most are Generation A (born in the 1920s and 1930s) who regularly staff open churches, clean, arrange flowers, catering, rotas, etc. Churches are active in setting up foodbanks.

The five most common points of contact are: funerals, visits to cathedrals or historic churches, weddings, Christmas services and christenings. Regular worship is in sixth place. For over-60s the top three are funerals, regular services and cathedrals, while for those 18-39 it is funerals, cathedrals and weddings. There is growing public interest in activities that involve participation in history – choirs, pilgrimages and mystery plays. While funerals, weddings and baptisms remain significant points of contact, their popularity is waning; these occasions are now increasingly marked in individual and customised ways.

Linda Woodhead has suggested that that the C of E might rethink itself as a religious franchise offering the following branches: the cathedral group with a commitment to history and ritual, the heart of community – largely rural congregations, the Alpha group for Evangelical congregations, the faith-first group committed to Biblical authority with strong links to Anglican and other churches, especially in Africa, the justice and peace group focusing on social issues, and open church for spiritual seekers and doubters. She also proposed that all Church property (churches and clergy housing) be put into an independent not-for-profit trust. The branches outlined above could rent back what they need on favourable terms. The parochial system will die a natural death. The whole C of E pension fund and liability can be passed on to an independent provider. A reduced number of dioceses would each have a college of bishops whose members represent the branches Two archbishops are a symbolic focus for religion and society, and stand for the whole church. The monarch continues to be the Supreme Governor of an essentially lay-led church.

END

Lawyers' Festive Greeting

Here's a fun take on how lawyers might wish you a happy Christmas.

Festive Greetings,

Please accept with no obligation, implied or implicit, our best wishes for an environmentally conscious, socially responsible, low stress, non-addictive, gender neutral celebration of the winter solstice holiday, practiced within the most enjoyable traditions of the religious persuasion of your choice, or secular practices of your choice, with respect for the religious/secular persuasions and/or traditions of others, or their choice not to practice religious or secular traditions at all.

In addition, please also accept our best wishes for a fiscally successful, personally fulfilling and medically uncomplicated recognition of the onset of the generally accepted calendar year 2011, but not without due respect for the calendars of choice of other cultures whose contributions to society have helped make this country great (not to imply that this country is necessarily greater than any other country or area of choice), and without regard to the race, creed, colour, age, physical ability, religious faith or sexual orientation of the wishers.

This wish is limited to the customary and usual good tidings for a period of one year, or until the issuance of a subsequent holiday greeting, whichever comes first. 'Holiday' is not intended to, nor shall it be considered, limited to the usual Judeo-Christian celebrations or observances, or to such activities of any organized or ad hoc religious community, group, individual or belief (or lack thereof).

Note: By accepting this greeting, you are accepting these terms. This greeting is subject to clarification or withdrawal, and is revocable at the sole discretion of the wisher at any time, for any reason or for no reason at all. This greeting is freely transferable with no alteration to the original greeting. This greeting implies no promise by the wisher actually to implement any of the wishes for the wisher her/himself or others, or responsibility for the consequences which may arise from the implementation or non-implementation of it.

This greeting is void where prohibited by law.

Source: not known.

Religion, Intelligence and Education

Religion and Intelligence: an evolutionary analysis by Edward Dutton

Ulster Institute for Social Research, 2014

Notes from an article in the Church Times, 30 May 2014

His work combined findings from a number of independent studies (meta-analysis) which show a weak but significant negative correlation between ‘religiousness’ and ‘intelligence’. Atheists have higher IQs than liberal religious, who have higher IQs than conservative religious. Religious people also score lower on proxies for intelligence (e.g. being highly educated). Fervent advocacy of any ideology (religion, Marxism, multi-culturism, conservative nationalism) is associated with low intelligence.

Intelligence is defined as the ability to solve problems quickly. It is linked to levels of education, socio-economic status, salary, health, criminality (negatively) and future orientation, amongst others. It is measured by IQ tests, which are not culturally biased.

Religiousness is c. 44% genetic, while religious conversion is c. 65% genetic. In people with pronounced personality traits (which are c. 50% genetic), these can overwhelm their intelligence. Religious academics and unintelligent atheists both arise from personality overwhelming intelligence.

There are five main personality characteristics: (1) Extra-version: experiencing positive feelings strongly; (2) Neuroticism: experiencing negative feelings strongly; (3) Conscientiousness: impulse control; (4) Agreeableness: altruism and (5) Openness-intellect: intellectual curiosity, creativity, hypnotisability, unusual psychological experiences. These have important implications. Very high extraversion predicts obesity and alcoholism, while very high neuroticism is linked with depression.

ED found religiousness weakly related to being agreeable or conscientious. Neuroticism is linked with periodic bouts of religious fervour or unusual religiosity. Openness and neuroticism are linked with both educational success and temporary religiousness, and likely to be set off by factors such as uncertainty and social exclusion (e.g. at top universities, far from home and under pressure to succeed). Post-graduates are generally less religious than undergraduates, PhD students less religious still. The most successful academics (e.g. Nobel Prize winners) were least religious of all.

ED found that compared with the general population, academics are agreeable, conscientious, open, neurotic and intelligent. Highly original thinkers have very high openness-intellect and neuroticism and relatively low agreeableness and conscientiousness, so less likely to care if new ideas offend and more likely to reject orthodox ways of doing things (offices tend to be chaotic, dress sense embarrassing, difficult to live with). The aggression of some atheists suggest ideological fervour is linked with low agreeableness and conscientiousness, high neuroticism and low intelligence; in comparison with Christians they would have similar IQs but be nasty, have poor emotional control and be mentally unstable.

Christians are likely to have very high agreeableness, conscientiousness and, perhaps, openness and neuroticism. They are likely to make better friends and partners than non-religious people when intelligence is taken into account. It is possible that religiousness (c. 44% genetic) was selected for in pre-history because people liked the characteristics associated with it.

******************************************************************************

Could this theory explain why:

(a) Roman Catholicism and Islam are strongest in poor communities with little education.

(b) Countries with higher levels of education are the least religious

Source: Church Times, 30 May 2014

Risk Taking and Novelty Seeking Genes

Neanderthals carried a gene called DRD4-7R forty thousand years ago. This gene is associated with risk taking and sensation seeking; always seeking but never satisfied.

A similar gene exists in 10% of the current human population and this 10% are more likely to be addicts. In fact, what kept humans progressing through evolution was this quest for novelty.

Entrepreneurs get us addicted to devices with constant updates and new features. Both substance (hard drugs) and behavioural (sex, shopping, etc.) addictions involve the release of dopamine - the brain's reward system.

With constant 'rushes' of dopamine, the brain decides to stop releasing dopamine, so you don't get the same buzz, and need more dopamine to get the same kick. And if you don't get it, you are left with the craving, in some cases leading to even more harmful addictions (e.g. cocaine).

Source: How to be human by Ruby Wax. Penguin Life, 2018

Your Passport and Purse or Wallet is Stolen Abroad

Your bag is stolen. Try not to panic. Write out a list of everything that was in your bag, including credit cards, money and traveller's cheques.

Report the theft to the police and insist they give you a written report, including a list of the items that were in your bag. You'll need this to make an insurance claim.

Cancel any credit cards and cash cards (keep emergency numbers in your hotel safe). Otherwise, take all reasonable steps to contact your bank and the company that issued your credit cards and traveller's cheques.

Get in touch with the nearest British Embassy or Consulate (for a list of locations by country go to www.fco.gov.uk). Either office will be able to arrange a money transfer to you from relatives or friends at home, as well as a replacement passport or emergency travel documents. This costs between £35.50 and £56.60 (2005 prices) and the process will be far easier if you have a photocopy of your passport, or at least a note of its number, as well as the date and place of issue.

Contact your travel insurance company. A typical policy will cover the cost of your new passport, the items in your bag, the travel costs to reach the police station, or embassy, and the cash you had in your purse (though this is usually limited to £250). Keep the receipts when you buy foreign currency as this will make it easier to claim on your insurance.

Block your mobile phone. Contact your network provider immediately to avoid being charged for calls made by the thief.

Source: Travel feature in Good Housekeeping, August 2005

Dress Code

Here are some examples of how to dress for a range of occasions.

Smart Casual
Aim to look presentable but understated and not too formal. For women, an unstructured jacket with a dress or a long skirt, or smart trousers with a silk shirt for women. For men, either a smart jacket with trousers and an open-neck shirt, or for a slightly more informal event, trousers, polo shirt and jumper.

Elegant Casual
For women, a well-fitted knee or calf length dress with overshirt, elegant cardigan or wrap. For men, a smart daytime suit in a dark colour, with a shirt and tie.

Lounge Suit
Smart but not dressy. For women, a knee length cocktail dress with a wrap, or a pair of evening trousers and a silk shirt. For men, a casual suit with an open shirt or polo shirt.

Black Tie
For women, it's best to ask the hostess what dress she is expecting, full-length or knee length. Accessorize with your best jewellery. Easier for men, a dinner jacket teamed with trousers with one row of braid and worn with soft-collared shirt and a black tie.

White Tie
Grander than black tie, and reserved for for formal events. Women should always wear long, formal evening dress (short dress and trousers not acceptable). Long evening gloves are correct, though few wear them. For men, a black evening tail coat, matching trousers with two rows of braid, stiff 'boiled' shirt, detachable wing collar, white bow tie and white evening waistcoat. Black patent shoes and black silk socks are a must.

Cocktail
Usually relaxed affairs. For women, a smart day dress or knee-length party dress. For men, a smart suit with a shirt and tie.

Come As You Are
Dress casually, but not sloppy. For women, smart casual trousers or skirt with jumper or tunic top. For men, smart trousers with casual shirt or polo shirt. [The original article ruled that jeans and trainers were not acceptable; in 2018 designer versions might be deemed ok.]

Source: feature in Good Housekeeping, September 2000.

What to Store in the Hotel Safe

When abroad it is recommended that you store the following items in the hotel safe.

• A photocopy of your passport or a note of its number and the date and place of issue.
• A note of the numbers on your credit and debit cards, with the emergency phone numbers for each issuer.
• The contact number for your travel insurance company and your policy number.
• The location and phone number of the nearest British embassy or consulate.
• A contact number for your mobile phone company.
• Receipts for any foreign currency you buy.
• A photocopy of your E111 form.

Source: Travel feature in Good Housekeeping, August 2005

Health Emergencies Abroad

Your child injures their foot on the beach, you or your partner fall ill - they need to see a doctor but neither you nor anyone else in the family speaks the local language. So what do you do if you have a health problem while abroad?

Start by calling your insurance company's 24-hour medical emergency number for advice, including help with language problems.

You need to do this first, in any case, because otherwise you may not be able to reclaim the cost of any treatment.

Your insurer may even arrange to pay directly for treatment, rather than reimburse you later.

Don't forget to keep the receipts for anything you have to pay for, so you can claim the money back.

If you have an E111 form for the person requiring treatment, you'll get free or reduced-cost treatment. The E111 is valid in most countries in Europe but covers only what residents of that country receive in emergency care, not necessarily what you would receive under the NHS - so you may have to pay for ambulances, for example. The form would not pay for the patient to be flown home, either. An air ambulance could cost thousands of pounds, which is why travel insurance is essential.

Source: Travel feature in Good Housekeeping, August 2005

Reducing Prisoner Numbers the Dutch Way

In the Netherlands, 19 prisons have been closed in the past few years, with more  expected to close next year (2017), at a time when the UK and much of the world struggle with overcrowded prisons. How does this work?

The Dutch way is to look at the individual and try to remove the reason for the crime. If someone has a drug problem, they treat the addiction, if they are aggressive they provide anger management help, and debt counselling is given to those with money problems. Inmates must be willing to change but over the last ten years, the strategy has increasingly been effective.

Some persistent offenders (known as 'revolving-door criminals') are eventually given two-year sentences and tailor-made rehabilitation programmes. Fewer than 10% then return to prison after their release. (In England and Wales, and the US, roughly half those serving short sentences re-offend within two years; the figure is often higher for young adults).

In high-security prisons, offenders are helped to adapt to normal life on completion of their sentence. Large exercise yards include trees, picnic tables and volleyball nets; fresh air reduces stress levels for both inmates and staff. Inmates are allowed to walk unaccompanied to the library, clinic and canteen and they can learn to cook in the prison kitchen.

Dutch judges often use alternatives to prison such as community service orders, fines and electronic tagging of offenders, believing that it is better for people to stay in their jobs and with their families. Jail is increasingly used for those who are too dangerous to release or for vulnerable offenders who need the help available inside.

Some critics argue that the drop in recorded crime (25% over the past eight years) results from the closure of police stations, as a result of budget cuts, which makes crime harder to report, and low detection rates.

Some closed prisons have been converted into asylum reception centres, providing work for some former prison guards, while the desire to protect prison service jobs has resulted in some foreign inmates from Norway and Belgium serving their sentences in the Netherlands.

Source: The Dutch prison crisis: a shortage of prisoners, by Lucy Ash. BBC News item, 10 Nov. 2016

Source: Updated report. Why there are so few prisoners in the Netherlands, in the Guardian, 11 Dec. 2019

Iodine

With more people buying dairy-free products, there is a risk of missing out on a crucial mineral: iodine.

Milk and dairy products are a major source of this mineral, whereas plant-based substitutes such as soya, almond, coconut, oat, rice and hazelnut milks contain much less.

Iodine is:

• needed to make thyroid hormones, which help keep cells and our metabolic rate healthy
• important during pregnancy as it is essential for normal foetal brain development
• low levels can lead to a lower metabolic rate and weight gain
• in pregnant women is linked to their children (up to nine years of age) having lower IQs.

If you can't have - or don't want - dairy milk, you can get iodine from white fish or a multivitamin with the daily requirement of 150 micrograms.

Source: Health tip in Good Housekeeping, June 2018.

The NHS Needs a Reliable Source of Income

The NHS needs a reliable source of income. Here’s where to find it.

Our NHS is nearly 70 years old and hasn’t changed its model for delivering services sufficiently to meet the changes in demography, complex disease profiles and user expectations. Even more efficient working and collaboration with adult social care would not resolve the problem that a tax-funded, pooled-risk healthcare system such as the NHS that is free at the point of clinical need requires a more generous funding system than we currently provide or are contemplating.

Yes, we need to use more technology, integrate health and social care with more provision in the community, and train and employ more doctors and nurses. We also need to tackle the huge variation in cost and quality of care around the country.

But this all takes time and requires both capital and revenue investment. The predicted unrelenting increase in demand that the health and care system will face over the next two decades would require in the region of a 3-4% annual real-terms increase in funding. (More than the 1.5% increase since 2010 and the 10 to 15% reduction in adult social care spend over the same period.)

Future funding of the gap needs to be from continuous sources. The top 10% of earners pay 59% of total income tax receipts, the top 1% some 27% - this source is unlikely to release the funds needed. Sourcing new revenue should be based on the following principles. A new tax base for the gig economy, the older population should pay a fairer share of the costs, lifestyles costly to the NHS and care system should exact a premium and tax-reduction schemes should be tackled.

A) A 10% revenue tax on UK sales for Amazon, Google, eBay and Apple (who pay very little tax) would yield £2.4bn minimally, with tax rising in parallel with their growth.

B) Three hundred thousand retired people receiving a pension are higher rate taxpayers, so relatively well-off. If they did not receive basic state pension or winter fuel allowance, £1.95bn a year would be generated annually, which would also be index linked.

C) Overseas companies own £55 billion of UK property. A 5% tax on land registry value would gain £2.75 billion and could be inflation proofed. A higher tax on sugary drinks (20%), minimum alcohol pricing, and higher rate VAT for unhealthy food (definitions exist) could raise a further £1-2bn a year.

Collectively the suggestions would deliver £8.5bn a year recurrently.

Other revenue sources could include revamping inheritance tax, which is likely to bias revenue from wealthier people and those who have been higher users of the care system.

What happens if we do nothing? Winter pressures become all-year pressures. Access to care deteriorates. Premature death rates rise among both young and old. We slide down the international league tables in terms of healthcare performance. More staff leave the NHS and young people stop going into the UK healthcare professions because the pressures, working conditions and pay get increasingly worse. EU health professionals stop working in the UK after Brexit, and the so-called Brexit financial dividend proves a mirage.

We need a serious national conversation about how we realistically fund the NHS and social care, which has to be led by our politicians across the political parties.

Lord Warner served as a Labour health minister from 2003-07 and now sits on the cross benches and Sir John Oldham is the adjunct professor for global health at Imperial College, and is the former chair of the Independent Commission on Whole Person Care.

Read in Full: The NHS needs a reliable source of income: here's where to find it: by Norman Warner and John Oldham, The Guardian, 15 March 2018

Recycling Plastic Bottles in Norway

Maybe the UK could adopt the Norway bottle recycling system

Norway claims to have the most cost-efficient way of tackling plastic litter, with an industry-led scheme that recycles 97% of bottles. (Similar schemes are in operation in other Nordic nations, Germany, and some states in the US and Canada.) In the UK, figures show that only around half of all plastic bottles get recycled.

In Norway there is a tax on every bottle that's not recycled. How the scheme works is down to business. The consumer pays a deposit on every bottle - the equivalent of 10p to 25p depending on size. They return it empty and post it into a machine which reads the barcode and produces a coupon for the deposit. If liquid is left in the bottle, the machine accepts it anyway - but the deposit goes to the shopkeeper who'll need to empty the bottle.

The deposit-return machine accepts only two types of plastic bottle, with approved labels and  approved glue to fix the labels. This allows the labels to be stripped easily, and simplifies recycling.

In the UK, roadside collections of plastic bottles are contaminated by rogue rubbish being put in the recycling container.

Homeless people also collect discarded bottles to get the deposit back. To avoid them rummaging in waste bins in public places, racks are provided for discarded plastic bottles.

Scotland has already committed to a deposit return scheme, but Westminster has  been more cautious due to lobbying by drinks manufacturers and fears from small shops about the administrative burden. Norway's small shopkeepers are said to generally favour the deposit return system, being paid a small fee for each bottle, and benefiting from increased footfall from people returning bottles.

But even in Norway, not everyone complies; the worst offenders are youngsters drinking energy drinks on the way to school. So some schools have now installed bottle collecting racks at the school gates to avoid plastic bottles going into general rubbish bins.

A municipal recycling scheme, ROAF, collects the bins from 70,000 homes on the outskirts of Oslo. Plastic bottles are isolated from other waste by infrared recognition, but because they have been mixed with other waste during collection they can't be used again for food grade packaging but get down-graded into plastic furniture instead.

But even Norway's ultra-efficient recycling system can't compete with new plastic on cost, as the ingredients of plastic are just too cheap. The cost of each bottle is subsidised by a few pence by the manufacturer, and then passed to the consumer.

An advantage of deposit return schemes is that it obliges each part of the plastic chain to change their behaviour - from product concept to design; to manufacture; transport; use; and finally disposal.

Source: BBC news item 7 Feb 2018: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-42953038

Out of the Wreckage

Out of the Wreckage: a new politics for an age of crisis: by George Monbiot
Verso, 2017

GM shows how new findings in psychology, neuroscience and evolutionary biology show humans as the supreme altruists and cooperators. He then proposes how democracy and economic life can be reorganized to take back control from the forces that now dominate our society.

I found this a fascinating read and a book to re-read. The following points are my notes.

1. A story of our times. Stories are the way humans navigate the world - myth, legend and history all tell stories that help us interpret what is happening. You cannot take away someone's story without giving them a new one. We may hold information as data and figures but our beliefs about it are held in the form of stories. To understand a complex issue, we do not look for consistent and reliable facts but a consistent and comprehensible story. Even if told something is untrue we still cling to it if it is a good story and we hear it often enough: the only thing to displace it is a better / stronger story.

Values are the bedrock of effective politics. Most people prioritise intrinsic values (compassion, connectedness and kindness) and are inclined to understanding in independent thought. ; extrinsic values (a desire for self-enhancement) . The smaller number of people favouring extrinsic values (prestige, status, image, fame, power and wealth) are strongly motivated by the prospect of individual reward and praise.

2. A captive audience. Neoliberalism - the belief that competition and individualism are defining human features - was refined in the 20th century and still dominates our political and economic systems. A coherent alternative is needed.

3. Don't look back. Recent history can be summarised as a conflict between neoliberalism and social demoncracy. Neither is the answer.

4. Alienation. People feel loss of: control over the work they do; connection with community; trust in politicians and institutions; sense of power over their own lives. Today in two-thirds of 28 countries surveyed, fewer than half of respondents trust mainstream business, government, media and non-governmental organisations to 'do what is right'. Only 15% believe 'the present system is working'.

Alienation begins with education teaching and testing to a limited specific curriculum but intelligence is varied - analytical, language, numerical, spatial, and more. This leads to feelings of failure, followed by resentment of the professional classes (regardless of their value to society) and of the 'liberal elite'. Millions retreat into virtual worlds of fantasy and imaginary self-creation.

Activities that once drew us together (e.g. travel by public transport, walking to shops and school, hot-desking, irregular shifts, etc.)  now drive us apart. We used to make our own entertainment watching others dancing, playing sport, cooking, dancing and singing. Those following celebrity gossip are far less likely to be involved on local organisations or to volunteer. Social media is double-edged - great at both making and breaking connections.

Shifting Baseline Syndrome: we perceive the situation that we experienced in our youth as normal and natural, and use it as a baseline against which to measure change. Over generations, populations then adjust to deprivation or oppression, thinking it to be normal.

5. Belonging. State provision had reduced community life but this its now being revived at local level with community activities and opportunities. Neighbourhoods become more interesting, distinct and vibrant.

6. Our economy. Some really interesting points on how assets are taken into the hands of the few - difficult to summarise.

7. Framing the economy. More interesting stuff.

8. Our politics.
The least accountable political system is that of the USA. A "winner takes all" electoral structure deprives many of effective representation. The president, in some areas, has almost autocratic powers. Rules effectively deter parties other than Democrat and Republican from competing in elections; the entire political system results in a plutocracy financed by corporations and the very rich supporting their own interests.

In the UK, campaign spending is limited, but donors giving is unrestricted - many end up in the House of Lords. The first-past-the-post system creates two constituencies: (a) safe seats and (b) marginal seats, resulting in large numbers of people who are effectively denied representation.

Constitutional convention: this would determine the principles that govern our politics. Convention members should be based on professional politicians due to vested interests, and nor volunteering to serve due to unrepresentative sample. Instead choose most delegates by lot, within social category (e.g. gender, age, ethnicity, class and religion) to represent the character of the population. if a person refuses to serve, a replacement is also chosen by lot. There is an argument for a proportion of delegates being politicians so they can champion the convention in parliament.

While all voting systems have disadvantages, the least flawed is the Single Transferable Vote (STV).

Politics needs fair funding. For example, every party or independent candidate can charge the same small fee for membership (independents forming a supporters club) of perhaps £20, with this matched by the state on a fixed multiple. For referendums, the state should provide an equal amount for those campaigning on each side. Stop treating organisations set up for public advocacy as charities, and require them to declare all donations over a certain amount (my note: and within a set time period - e.g. all donations within a year?) When people from these groups appear in the media, the group's financial interests relevant to the discussion must be mentioned.

Having won an election, governments pushing through some manifesto policies, forgetting others and introducing some new ones. Referendums work effectively in Switzerland, around 10 per year, clustered into 3 or 4 voting days. This encourages public engagement and a sense of political ownership. Using referendums on too many small issues, however, would lose their power; properly conducted online consultations may be the answer to avoid the risk of empowering one group (the tech-savvy) over other groups.

Some countries have good programmes for providing objective materials about key political issues: Germany's Federal Agency of Civic Education materials include the online seervice Wahl-O-Mat and Switzerland has a Smartvote platform.

Other things impact on national politics. Transnational corporations push nation-states into destructive competition. The IMF, the World Bank and the UN Security Council are controlled by a minority of nations. Some issues can only be resolved by global action (e.g. climate change, nuclear proliferation, international crime).

Nation-states are a recent phenomenon, before the late 18th century there were no clear national boundaries or border checks. People's attachment was to their village or town. Conflict best avoided by giving power to the smallest appropriate unit.

9. Making it happen. Some of the policies in the book could be implemented immediately but most would need regime change. The example of how Bernie Sanders presidential campaign focused on small donations from supporters, volunteers instead of paid staff, telephone and doorstep conversations and lots of small meetings could be a way forward.

END

'Tight' and 'Loose' Societies

Every culture has its own unwritten rules, but the degree to which they are enforced varies widely. New research divides societies into "tight" (strict, rigorously enforced rules) and "loose" (more laissez-faire) categories rather than the 1960s model of six factors (individualism, power distance, masculinity, uncertainty avoidance, long-term orientation and indulgence).

It is thought that the tight and loose difference underpins all sorts of other factors, from creativity to divorce rates and that there is an explanation of why nations differ and how to influence social norms.

Tightness is determined by the level of external threat to which a society was exposed historically, whether ecological (e.g. earthquakes, scarce natural resources) or human-made (e.g. war). Tightness is about coordination - strong rules are needed for survival.

An international study in 33 nations by 43 institutions worldwide surveyed the attitudes of 7,000 people. The team also calculated national averages for tightness and compared these with natural disasters, exposure to pathogens, territorial conflict, lack of access to clean water and high population density, finding a correlation. Societies facing a high level of threat (e.g. Pakistan, Malaysia) regulated social behaviour more and punished deviance more than loose societies.

The team also found that tight societies tend to be more autocratic, with greater media censorship and fewer collective actions such as demonstrations, are more conformist and religious, have more police, lower crime and divorce rates and cleaner public spaces. Even stock markets are more synchronised.

A later study across 50 US states found a correlation between tightness on legality of same-sex marriage, percentage of foreign born residents, and strength of religious institutions with threats such as tornado risk and exposure to hazardous waste. Tighter states had lower rates of drug abuse and homelessness and happiness but higher rates of incarceration and discrimination.

The links may be complex. External threats may encourage marriage within a group but could ultimately produce its own threat as a result of inbreeding. Views on abortion, homosexuality and euthanasia (basic concerns about survival and reproduction) are heavily shaped by culture. Views on honesty and respect for the law influenced more by individual beliefs.

Upping external threats pushes a group to enforce its norms more strictly, lowering it does the opposite. Populist leaders direct their messages at groups who feel threatened and some exaggerate the the real threat. Too much looseness may also produce a backlash - e.g. where people feel there is no security or infrastructure. Simply understanding why societies differ in this way could help global harmony.

On a range of measures (including health, wealth, happiness and political stability), moderate cultures came out best.

In order from tightest to loosest: Very tight: Pakistan, Malaysia, India, Singapore. Less tight: South Korea, Norway, Turkey, Japan, China, Portugal, Germany (East), Mexico. More Loose: UK, Italy, Austria, Germany (West), Iceland, Hong Kong, France, Poland, Belgium, Spain, US, Australia. Most Loose: New Zealand, Greece, Venezuela, Brazil, Netherlands, Israel, Hungary, Estonia, Ukraine.

Source: Article Culture Clash: why are some societies strict and others laissez-faire by Laura Spinney in New Scientist, 7th April 2018

Privacy Respecting Online Services

Recent revelations about Cambridge Analytica and how data from Facebook has been shared and used, and how other social media services and search engines treat your data means that people are tightening up their settings. But if you want to go further, there are services that respect your privacy.

Many users are deleting Facebook's app from their mobile phones and changing their privacy settings. An alternative is Diaspora which decentralises social networks by letting people set up their own servers to host content. Users retain ownership of their data and aren't required to use their real name.

Google stores your entire search history and uses it to make website and video suggestions, profile you and sell adverts. Search engine DuckDuckGo doesn't store any information, so they are not tailored to your particular interests. You'll get a wider spread of results from a search.

Twitter uses information it knows about you to sell ads - things like your gender, age and location. Mastadon offers similar features to Twitter but is decentralised, meaning that anyone can set up a Mastadon server that is independently owned. Users on one server act as a single community, but can also communicate with people on other servers.

Gmail used to make money by scanning your inbox for keywords, then showing you adverts based on your interests. In 2017, Google announced it would no longer sell adverts this way - but emails are still scanned to power flight reminders, calendar updates and other Google features. An alternative is Protonmail, which encrypts all of its users' emails, meaning it has no access to your inbox. A basic account is free, while extra features like folders require a subscription. The service is so secure that Cambridge Analytica reportedly used it!!

Source: Article Stop being the product by Jacob Aron in New Scientist, 7th April 2018

Singing Hymns to Unusual Tune Choices

There are a number of hymns which fit to tunes other than their own traditional one. So here are some that were quoted on the blog Close Encounters. You can sing:

'There is a green hill far away' to the tune of 'The House of the Rising Sun.'

'While shepherd's watched their flocks by night' goes to 'On Ilkley Moor baht 'at'. (Apparently you can also sing ‘On Ilkley Moor’ to the tune of 'O for a thousand tongues').

'Immortal, invisible God only wise' can be sung to The Wombles theme tune.

'Love divine all love's excelling' can be sung to three other tunes: 'O my darling Clementine' and 'Now the carnival is over', and 'All the nice girls love a sailor' as well.

'O Jesus I have promised' goes to The Muppets theme tune.

'We plough the fields and scatter' fits The Archers theme tune, provided you sing the word 'plough' on the first 'TUM' ('we PLOUGH the FIELDS and SCA-a-tter the GOOD seed O-on the LAND!')

END

Cutting Hospital Admissions by Tackling Loneliness

"A remarkable experiment suggests that emergency admissions to hospital can be reduced by tackling loneliness" writes George Monbiot.

Provisional data from a trial in the Somerset town of Frome appears to show that when isolated people who have health problems are supported by community groups and volunteers, the number of emergency admissions to hospital falls spectacularly. During the trial period of three years, emergency hospital admissions in Somerset rose by 29% but in Frome they fell by 17%. (21 Feb. 2018: The results have been published informally, in the magazine Resurgence & Ecologist. A scientific paper has been submitted to a medical journal and is awaiting peer review).

The Compassionate Frome project was launched in 2013 by the town’s GP, Helen Kingston. Her practice set up a directory of agencies and community groups, which enabled them identify and then fill gaps with new groups for people with particular conditions. They employed “health connectors” to help people plan their care and trained voluntary “community connectors” to help their patients find the support they needed. Sometimes this meant handling debt or housing problems, sometimes joining choirs or lunch clubs or exercise groups or writing workshops or men’s sheds (where men make and mend things together). The point was to break a familiar cycle of misery: illness reduces people’s ability to socialise, which leads in turn to isolation and loneliness, which then exacerbates illness.

Recent studies have discovered that those with strong social relationships had a 50% lower chance of death across the average study period (7.5 years) than those with weak connections. HIV patients with strong social support have lower levels of the virus than those without. Women have better chances of surviving colorectal cancer if they have strong connections. Young children who are socially isolated appear more likely to suffer from coronary heart disease and type II diabetes in adulthood. Most remarkably, older patients with either one or two chronic diseases have no greater death rates than those who are not suffering from chronic disease – as long as they have high levels of social support.

Source: A remarkable experiment suggests that emergency admissions to hospital can be reduced by tackling loneliness, by George Monbiot, The Guardian 21 February 2018 (www.monbiot.com)

Bishop of Salisbury Pastoral Letter on UK-EU Vote 2016

(I originally posted this on another blog which I am now closing down. But I wanted to keep the information and the link to the full text.)

The Bishop of Salisbury wrote to all clergy in the Diocese following the UK-EU Referendum (28 June 2016). Read text of letter here. (Link still works 4th April 2018.)

It includes a breakdown of voting within the Diocese which makes interesting reading as it shows the extent of the division.

On the whole there were more voting to Leave than in the country overall. However in Wiltshire one electoral district voted 75% Remain and another in the same county voted 83% Leave.

There was a marked division by age. A survey suggests that age was an important factor.
18-24:   75% Remain
25-49:   56% Remain
50-64:   44% Remain
65+:       39% Remain

Do read the whole text.

Source: Bishop of Salisbury, 2016.

Cleaning with Soda Crystals

Soda crystals are great for all sorts of kitchen jobs, and they are economical to use.

# Clear slow plugholes. Pour a mug of soda crystals down the plughole and flush with hot water - they will effectively dissolve grease to prevent build-ups and smelly blockages. Avoid using on plated taps or fittings.

# Clean your washing machine. Once a month, pour 500g of soda crystals into the main drum and run through an empty load on the hottest wash. This works at ridding your machine of limescale and detergent build-up.

# Shine your silverware. Tips two cups of soda crystals into a foil-lined bowl, then half-fill the bowl with hot water to dissolve them. Submerge silverware in the solution, and leave to soak for 10 mins. Gently rub with a cloth to remove dirt, then buff dry. Do not use on aluminium or plated silver. Use rubber gloves to protect your hands.

Un-pong your bin. To clean your bin or recycling container, wash it with a solution of soda crystals following pack instructions.

Source: Item in Good Housekeeping, March 2018

5 Uses for Baking Parchment

Baking parchment is a useful product.

• Store pieces of meat in the freezer with parchment between them - it makes it easier to remove a single portion.
• Use to line drawers. Then wipe clean or replace when it gets dirty.
• Cover food with it before microwaving to avoid splashes inside the microwave.
• Cut out five-inch squares and place in a greased muffin tin for cupcake cases.
• If reheating pizza, place some parchment underneath before microwaving to stop it going soggy.

Source: Item in Good Housekeeping, Feb. 2018

Winter Skin Care

In winter, dry skin becomes drier and mild sensitivity can become persistent. Dehydration starts with lipid loss - lipids are the natural fats that make a protective barrier on the surface of the skin. As skin ages, lipid production slows, and when the central heating is on, water is lost from the skin, sometimes more than half a pint a day. That's when inflammation sets in.

Use a gentle cleanser. It can take your skin up to eight hours to repair the lipid loss caused by incorrect cleansing. Swap harsh soaps and foaming cleansers, which can strip the skin's natural oils, for nourishing oils and balms, or the lighter micellar oils.

Supplement your skin's own lipids with a good facial oil. Incorporate healthy fats such as oily fish, avocado, nuts and seeds into your diet.

Shed the dead cells. When the old cells dehydrate, they don't shed as quickly as they should, and create a physical barrier that skincare struggles to penetrate. But take care to exfoliate with gentle products and not more than once a week.

Hot baths and central heating can cause 'winter itch' on the body. Keep baths warm rather than hot, and use lotion style body washes rather than foaming products. Put on body cream just before bed, as woollen day clothes can absorb oils and lipids from moisturisers.

Ditch heavy creams. Using a hyaluronic acid serum under your moisturiser will deliver more hydration than a winter-weight cream. It is also useful to use a good hydrating mist after cleansing and before applying moisturiser, and when you come in from the cold and skin feels tight and dry.

Source: Item in Good Housekeeping, Feb. 2018

Wear Ear Plugs for Winter Swims

If you swim in winter and produce a lot of ear wax, wear ear plugs.

Water causes the wax to expand,  affecting hearing and balance.

Source: Item in Good Housekeeping, Feb. 2018.

A History of the World

A History of the World by Andrew Marr (McMillan, 2012)

Andrew Marr gives a broad brush view of global history from prehistoric times up to 2012, comparing what was happening in various parts of the world in the same era. A fascinating read and a useful counterpoint to histories of individual countries. I've quoted below some bits of the text which struck me as valuable points to think about and remember.

[Greek] city-states: a rough, political equality between citizens, speaking clearly and listening attentively, living under clear, agreed laws, could produce a better life but also demonstrated the power of competition. Laws, constitutions, political systems, artisan skills, fighting styles - all improved when constantly tested against one another. ... Is it possible to be a true republic and an empire at the same time? No. Can democracy survive vast disparities of wealth? No. Does success produce decadence? Yes.

Judaism and then Christianity were disruptive creeds because of their emphasis on equality before God and their denial of the divinity of emperors. Shlomo Sand states that 'every monotheism contains a potential element of mission - unlike the tolerant polytheisms.

[The downfall of empires follow a familiar sequence]: the extreme inequality created as loot from abroad floods in; the corruption of voting systems and of representative institutions; hoarse cries for change from the streets; the undertow of violence; the mailed fist as the army strides in 'to clean things up'. The imbalance of power created by empire, unbalances the empire itself.

Like Caesar, Zheng (of China) had a megalomaniac vision of personal power [catapulting their empires] into civil war as would-be successors fought for control.

The world grew much considerably colder between AD 200 and 500. This climatic shift not only hit farmers and produced periodic famines, it forced the tribes of central Asia to move, or else die. They were highly mobile, and so they moved, shoving earlier migrants west. Migration and trade spread unfamiliar viruses.

In the Americas, ... lacking wheels and many of the animals of Eurasia, the Mesoamericans would in general pass on few fresh ideas to world culture. Their religions were mainly darker, more blood-soaked and pessimistic than those of cultures across the Atlantic. There was no spiritual equivalent to a Confucius or Jesus native to the American cultures.

As numbers of Christians rose, the Church started to behave as an earthly power. # Old Arabia ... from around 8000 to 4000 BC had been lush and fertile. The dry period created the vast deserts of the north. Powerful but fallen civilizations were crucial to the Arabia in which Muhammad grew up. He seems to have retained much of traditional Arab tribal custom - this very flexibility produced the array of Muslim domestic and dress rules that are so controversial now. Like Christianity, Islam would suffer splits and would be compromised by having to deal with earthly problems of power and politics.

[Europe's later success was built on:] Firstly, successive waves of migration caused by hunger on the huge grasslands of central Asia ... produced a Europe of vigorously competing cultures which would forge later states. Secondly, the fact that Northern Europeans were cut off from the rest of the world [forced the growth of their towns, farming replaced forests, new skills and technologies developed which were then spread by trading.]

[Viking expansion into what is now Russia was likely to have been triggered by overpopulation.]

Dynastic despotism always leads to feuds between generations and between siblings, sometimes ending in treachery, murder and the plotting of palace coups.

Novgorod (north of Moscow) had produced a rich ruling class whose conspicuous consumption caused resentment among the ordinary citizens.

The trouble with dynasties is that they produce weaker members as well as stronger ones. # Is it ever possible for a full-scale revolutionary upheaval not to progress to mass murder and eventually to military dictatorship? Power maddens. Everyone claims to speak for the people - but the actual majority of living adults are voiceless.

Industrial revolution came at a price, forcing millions into repetitive indoor jobs and crammed, insanitary urban housing. Environmental effects could be terrible due to air and water pollution. Patents, and therefore profits, were essential for stimulating bright and ambitious people.Why Britain first is more about politics than geographical chance and could not have happened without capitalism. It can happen without capitalism, as in the Soviet Union and China, but in both cases required extreme violence, huge waste and the theft or purchase of capitalist-created technology.

Wars often radicalize, and defeats do so more than victories.

There is an interesting parallel [between freeing slaves in America and] Russian emancipation of serfs. In both places, the land without the serfs or slaves to work it was almost valueless; but both serfs and former slaves found there was very little work available except the old, hard field-work. So how real was their freedom?

Whenever you get all-male warrior bands unleashed on normal settled family-based people, there is a high risk they will behave abominably ... likely to kill randomly and even rape and torture.

Democracy is a culture not a system. It is based on habits, attitudes, long-established divisions of power, ingrained belief in law and absence of systemic corruption and cynicism. You can import a system but not a culture.

WW1 had left a badly divided-up Europe and Middle East - the fault of US President Woodrow Wilson and British and French leaders Lloyd George and Clemenceau. Europe was left to deal with the consequences of American state-making, resulting in the grievances of Austria and Germany. This was intensified by the Great Crash of 1929 which took the world to a general trade depression [which in turn] raised the prestige of dictatorship [such as Hitler] as an alternative.

WW2: the US was a virtual empire. Ideology took second place to national self-interest. The morals drawn from this conflict, which killed perhaps seventy million people (twice as many of them civilians as soldiers) were varied. For the Russians, who lost more people both in total and as a percentage of the population, it is the Great Patriotic War. For the US, it was a war to save democracy. For the Jews (and many Gentiles) it was the Holocaust, whose consequence was modern Israel. For Arabs it was the war that persuaded Europeans to to steal their land for the Jews. For the Germans it was the consequence of their time of madness and for the British, their stand-alone moment.

Colonialism would bring benefits to India, including the rediscovery of Hindu cultures all but forgotten, but colonialism corrupts both sides. It brutalizes the colonial power, making it unable to live up to its own highest ideals; and it humiliates the colonized people, making it hard for them to respect either their rules or themselves. # Soviet Communist rule resulted in waste, shortages, cynicism and hopelessness.

The Chinese yearning for unity and order is not an obscure political shibboleth. The greater the population, the more sprawling and varied the terrain, the harder unity and order are to impose.

The Afghan and Iraq wars were battlefield successes but strategic failures. Invading somebody else's culture (as well as their land) to impose democracy is a risky business. It challenges the idea that the whole world was converging on a single politico-economic system, or could do.

Financial capitalism has always evolved through bubbles and crashes. Wherever wealthy companies or individuals are able to huddle together, improperly regulated, they will conspire against the public. Failures are located inside the same democratic-representative structures that were supposed to [prevent them]. Politicians spend too much money campaigning to get elected to get really tough on bankers, and too much time worrying about geopolitics to attend to the health of their own economies. Their voters wanted cheap goods and easy credit. Modern market capitalism put consumerism on a pedestal, while underestimating long-term human instincts such as spiritual questing, tribalism and fear - but these haven't gone away.

END

How to Reduce Council Tax Bills

East Hampshire District Council has managed to freeze its council tax rate for seven years due to the innovative policies of its council leader Ferris Cowper. While he has been in charge, his council has never put up its tax by a penny (crucially, without ever axing a 'frontline' service and without fining people for putting the wrong stuff in recycling bins) and he plans further reductions in the next three years.

His council of 200 square miles has not won the lottery or found oil or gold on its land but there has been a change of attitude together with commercial common sense and a willingness to think outside the box.

The council employs a chief executive on £120,000 a year (half the salary of some town hall CEOs, as some 2,300 town hall executives now earn more than the Prime Minister) but because she simultaneously runs the council in nearby Havant, the cost to East Hampshire is £60,000. The same arrangement applies to several other executives. Other philosophies that underpin the strategy are no fancy HQ, open plan offices, and no 'occupation of office space with personal possessions'.

Low-risk commercial property has been purchased instead of leaving the council's cash reserves in the bank earning negligible interest. The portfolio, now worth up to £100 million, ranges from a bank in the local town centre to a village branch of the Co-op, .

The council uses its staff and premises to run businesses from a printing operation to a regeneration consultancy. It rents out its planners, its traffic wardens and even its bin collection service to neighbouring councils. Having given its HQ a modest refurb, it now rents out vacant office space to the police. There are plans to regenerate the old military garrison town of Bordon with thousands of homes on old MoD land.

While councils have to play it safe with public money and most are naturally risk-averse, Mr Cowper believes you need to move from risk-aversion to balanced risk, giving you as much chance of success as failure. Councils must now follow new guidelines and take extra care with such investments, but East Hampshire has gone for rock-solid loan investments for the long term, based on yield, not capital growth.

Critics point out that a district council does not have to worry about the burden of adult social care which falls to the local county council, which is behind so many council tax rises. However, Mr Cowper sees no reason why his council should not be paying for that too, a few years in the future.

East Hampshire is a small authority with a small budget of around £30 million and 270 staff, while big councils have £1 billion-plus budgets and more services to deliver, but  maybe the same approach could work for them.

Source: DailyMail new item 14 February 2018.

Non-alcoholic Drinks

Trying a dry month or simply cutting down?

Many people drink alcohol because it is there. # Stock up on alternative non-alcoholic drinks. # Tonic water with ice and lemon. # Try syrups - but beware the sugar content. # try a non-alcoholic spirit such as Seedlip, a refreshing gin replacement. # Buy half-bottles of wine.

Going out? Ask for your soft drinks to be served in a wine glass - it stops people asking why you are not drinking, plus it is somehow satisfying to hold the stem of a glass.

Be mindful. Before opening a bottle, ask yourself if you are anxious, bored or lonely. Try to deal with these feelings in a positive way rather than numbing them with alcohol. # Plan distractions like going for a walk, having a relaxing bath or chatting to a friend. # Start a drinking diary and note down what you drink, and when and why.

Many people drink in social situations because of anxiety. # Try slipping into parties late, when awkward small talk if over and the mood is more relaxed. # Socialise at brunch and breakfast as there is no expectation to drink. # Plan your alcohol drink choice in advance, so you are not put on the spot and panic and agree to wine.

Make a list of all the reasons you want to give up for a while and refer to the list when willpower weakens.

Source: Item in Good Housekeeping, Feb. 2018

Washing Tips for Various Fabrics

To keep your garments looking their best, take care how you wash them.

Silk. Fill a washing up bowl with lukewarm water and a small amount of liquid detergent for delicate fabrics. Lightly agitate for three to five minutes and then rinse well. If the care label advises machine washing, choose a gentle cold water cycle.

Jeans. Always wash inside out and do up the zip and button to help them keep their shape. Use a detergent designed for colours as these do not contain bleach. Don't tumble dry or dry in sunlight.

To Prevent Fading. Turn tops inside out when washing to limit direct exposure to detergent. Use a liquid detergent designed for colours (detergents for whites contain optical brighteners) and don't dry
items in direct sunlight.

Bras. Don't wash too often - every 3 to 4 wears is fine. Wash in a pillowcase to protect washing machine from metal fastenings. Avoid tumble drying. Line dry and store by hanging from central section.

Various sources.

NHS and the Future

Your Life In My Hands: a junior doctor's story by Rachel Clarke.
Metro, 2017     ISBN: 978 1 78606 451 6

The author worked originally as a journalist before training as a doctor. The book covers aspects of her training, and work in the NHS, together with the facts about the junior doctor's strike in 2016. I have picked out the important facts - but urge you to read this.

The UK's NHS is 'under-doctored' due to not enough funding. The OECD's 2015 Health at a Glance report showed that the UK has 2.8 practising doctors per 1,000 head of population, lower than almost any EU country, inclusing Poland, Latvia and Lithuania. Per 1,000 head of population Italy has 4.0 doctors, Germany 4.1, Austria 4.8 and Greece 6.1 doctors.

The NHS is understaffed, resulting in staff covering two jobs due to gaps in rotas.

In 2015 Jeremy Hunt wrongly claimed 6,000 (later he raised this to 11,000) avoidable fatalities due to consultants refusing to work at weekends. He also claimed consultants opt out of weekend working, then offer themselves as locums with 'extortionate' rates of pay. The truth is otherwise as RC points out.

• Consultants are always there to lead the Saturday and Sunday ward rounds, and are then available by phone as and when needed - at any time of day or night.
• The weekend opt-out is only for elective care (i.e. planned operations or extra weekend outpatient clinics) - and does not apply to emergency care.
• Without additional doctors, nurses and other health professionals, the only way to roster more people at weekends is to take people off weekday duties or work longer hours overall.
• Working longer hours is unsafe. Fatigue levels at the end of a busy shift can impair mental acuity more effectively than exceeding the alcohol limit for driving.

Bed blocking is due to social services underfunding which means that home care plans and support are not available in time.

Cardiac arrests in hospital: 25% survive to be discharged. Cardiac arrests in the community: less than 10% survive to be discharged, even with prompt transport to A&E.

2016: The NHS in England, Wales and Northern Ireland was short of over 23,000 nurses, 6,000 doctors and 3,500 midwives. Hunt likes to claim an additional 10,000 doctors since the Tories gained power in 2010, but this equates in reality to 5,000 when part-time doctors are factored in. And with a rising UK population, there is actually no increase in the number of doctors per head of population.

In 2016 around 10% of junior doctor training posts were unfilled, and the exodus of young doctors worsened after the 2010 election. In 2011 75% of doctors continued in training posts after completing the first two years of practice, this steadily declined to 67% in 2012, 64% in 2013, 58% in 2014 and 52% in 2015. Leavers have gone overseas, often to Australia or New Zealand. Some specialities (e.g. paediatrics) have a critical shortage of trainees.

Hunt wrongly claimed a minority of doctors working over 56 hours a week were paid "what's called colloquially in the NHS 'danger money' " - no doctor (working or retired has ever heard of this money.

The morning the doctors' strike ballot opened, Hunt said there would be a 'whopping 11% pay rise for junior doctors' but the 11% was in basic pay only, and was offset by huge cuts elsewhere to pay for anti-social hours. The overall effect was likely to be a pay cut for many. The result was that 98% of doctors voted to strike.

Hunt claimed that no doctor would work longer than currently, the new contract reducing overall hours from 91 to 72 per week but the new contract had to deliver 7 day services 'cost-neutrally' - which is simply not possible. (The BMA had under duress, conceded the principle of 7-day services cost-neutrality.)

Junior doctors move from job to job every 3, 4 or 6 months in order to gain experience across the range of medical specialities. This makes life difficult as rosters can be allocated without any notice due to a lack of forward planning by managers.

Women are discriminated against in the new contract. The pay of part-time doctors (80% of whom are women, is set to rise more slowly than for full-time posts. The government admitted this but proposed such doctors find 'informal, unpaid childcare arrangement for evenings and weekends'. In 2016, women made up 60% of the profession.

All of the above leads to rock bottom morale, which is linked to sickness and lower standards of patient care. NHS England estimates sickness absence costs the NHS £2.4 billion per year. If sickness absence were reduced by only one day per person per year, the NHS could save £150 million, enough to pay for 6,000 additional staff full time.

12 Jan. 2016 Junior doctors' strike. Hospital picket lines supported by other hospital staff and the public. Hunt then claimed further 'terrifying' increases in weekend mortality - all this data is contested and challenged by leading academics in the field. The extra deaths from strokes, emergency surgery and newborn babies is mostly if not entirely due to emergency admissions - and would have happened if the admission were on a weekday. Hunt ignored the finite number of doctors, nurses, porters, radiographers, lab technicians and administrators for extra weekend activity. Fantasy politics.

2017 With the state of the NHS still in crisis, Theresa May then blamed GPs for failing to offer proper 7 day services, putting pressure on hospitals and ordered practices to be open 7 days a week or lose some of their funding.

Rachel Clarke writes 'While there are, no doubt, ingenious ways of driving up NHS efficiency, merely shrinking the workforce and rationing the care the NHS provides is the opposite of clever.

Note 1. Jeremy Hunt was in PR before becoming an MP, thus has many years of practising how to spin news to a specific viewpoint.

Note 2. My daughter is a nurse working in an endoscopy clinic, shift hours are long, and every few weeks she is on call overnight and at the weekend to assist with emergency surgery - it is draining to have returned hone from one call out only to get another within the hour, and then to work a day shift the following day. Other specialities place the same demands; she previously worked in cardiac intensive care.

OECD report: Health at a Glance 2015.

END

Prevent Scammers Faking Facebook Accounts Under Your name

It is a good idea to make your Facebook friends list private.

If someone tries to spoof or fake an account using your name, they will look at your public list of friends and will contact them to say you have got a new account, or they got deleted by accident and can you re-add them.

They can then carry out various scams under your name.

To stop this, do the following.

1. Log into your Facebook account (PC or laptop rather than phone or tablet).
2. Navigate to your timeline and select the 'Friends' option under your cover photograph.
3. You should then see a pencil icon to the right OR a down arrow and you can click on that and select 'Edit Privacy'.
4. Choose either 'Only Me' or 'Friends Only' options.

Source: Phil Bradley column in CILIP Update, Nov. 2017

How to Bridge the Brexit Divide

The Brexit vote exposed the deep division between leavers and remainers, but the status quo is not an option.

On the eve of the referendum, Britain was running a record current account deficit, growth was being pumped up by an overheating housing market, factories were still producing less than before the start of the financial crisis, and people in the poorest parts of the country were being targeted with depp cuts to welfare benefits. There was a growing north-south divide: there is a 44% gap between the south-east and the less productive cities in the rest of the country.

Old industrial Britain is still suffering the consequences of the closure of factories and pits three or four decades ago. These communities have higher levels of unemployment and of people on disability benefit. Brexit was about dead-end jobs and run-down communities talked down and bossed around by London.

If a second referendum was held and reversed the decision, the leavers would feel betrayed - and might opt for more violent protest than the ballot box - unless changes were made.

The leave camp faces the same challenge - only empty promises so far by the politicians.

The writer of this piece proposes the following:

• The north is not short of homes, but its housing stock is often run down and energy inefficient, so there should be a nation-wide programme to improve insulation, starting with cities in the north. This would cut fuel bills, reduce carbon emissions and provide well-paid jobs for local people.
• Start a new national investment bank, to channel funds into traditional manufacturing sectors, such as engineering, and food and drink, where they need modernizing, and to identify the growth sectors of the future.
• Britain should focus on excelling in developments in artificial intelligence, nanotechnology, biotechnology, materials science, 3D printing and quantum computing, which will transform the global economy. 
• However there is a danger that the benefits will go overwhelmingly to London, Oxford and Cambridge, a university in each of the big northern cities needs to be identified to take the lead in specific areas, and academic funding, tax breaks, state aid and public procurement should be used to establish industrial clusters and develop domestic supply chains.
• Substantial improvement in northern infrastructure is needed. Money earmarked for the HS2 rail link should be spent instead on HS3 - linking Liverpool, Manchester, Leeds, Sheffield and Hull. As currently planned, HS2 would suck talented people out of the north, while HS3 would encourage them to stay.
• Address the skills gap in the north - companies are currently unsure they can get the people they want. Levels of adult literacy and numeracy are poor. There is a mismatch in further education between the courses on offer and the skills employers need.
• Allow local governments to raise and keep more of their own money. Ensure a new investment bank is based on the banks of the Mersey or the Humber.
• be bold and move parliament to Leeds or Manchester.

Source: Larry Elliott: No wonder the north is angry. Here's a plan to bridge the bitter Brexit divide: in The Guardian, 16 Nov. 2017

Humans Are Still Evolving

A survey of the human genetic code has shown that our resistance to malaria, diabetes and other diseases is changing in response to our environment.

We already know that in the past, people developed lighter skins when living in parts of the world with less sunlight.

We now also know that several traits are sometimes linked to a single gene. For instance, when people in the Far East evolved a different version of the EDAR gene to sweat differently, the same gene gave them much denser hair and changed their teeth too; the effect has been called "hitchhiking".

Genes that protect against disease are also evolving. The CR1 gene helps cut the severity of malaria attacks and is now present in 8 out of 10 Africans, but is absent elsewhere.

Several genes, such as ENPP1, are involved in the regulation of insulin and in metabolic syndrome (a combination of diabetes and obesity). These genes are present in 9 out of 10 non-Africans but fewer in Africans (suggesting they have not yet adapted to an American lifestyle), which might explain why African Americans are especially at risk of obesity and high blood pressure.

Source: Roger Highfield: Humans are evolving to resist disease. The Telegraph 5 Feb. 2008

Tax Avoidance

All types of people try to avoid paying tax or to pay less tax, but the public judges them differently.

• The British public assume around one third of taxpayers have exploited a tax loophole.
• Just under half (48%) thought tax avoidance was "usually or always wrong".
• But more than 60% believe it is "usually or always wrong" for poorer people to use legal loopholes to obtain more benefits.

So people are far more concerned by the idea of low-income groups exploiting the system than about high-income groups doing the same. This discrepancy is reflected in government priorities - speedy changes to welfare legislation and little done to address widespread tax avoidance by the wealthy.

Why? People are bad at dealing with numbers in the millions and billions. Simply listing the vast sums of money going offshore that could be spent on public services in the UK means little emotionally to people.

We need to link the numbers to their consequences.

• The money lost because someone does not pay tax on their private jet means thousands more visits to food banks.
• Fewer people might have killed themselves after a work-capability assessment if big companies had not registered their offices in offshore tax havens, and the pressure to reduce benefits payments was not so intense.

Source: Robert de Vries and Aaron Reeves: Why do people care more about benefit 'scroungers' than billions lost to the rich? in The Guardian, 15 Nov. 2017

Perception Versus Fact

People's perception of facts is often wrong. News media focus on the bad news, with the result that we think things are worse than they really are. And if we allow the gloom to bring us down, it can affect our health. Remember that 5 positive, encouraging remarks are needed to offset the negative impact of just one piece of bad news.

In the UK

Murder: people think that the murder rate is getting higher or staying the same - wrong. In reality the murder rate is plunging and dropped by almost a third since 2000.

Terrorism: we think deaths from terrorism has got worse in the last 15 years - wrong. In fact they are significantly lower, down from over 300 to just 62.

Prisoners: people guess that 34% of prisoners are foreign born - wrong. The actual figure is 11.8% (much the same as the proportion of the overall population.)

Teenage pregnancy: people guess that 20% (or 1 in 5) babies are born to teenage mums - wrong. The real teenage pregnancy rate is 1.4% (just 1 in 70).

Diabetes: people think that about a quarter (25%) of British adults have diabetes - wrong. In fact the actual number is just 5% (5 in 100).

Vaccines: more than half of Britons are unsure or believe there is a link between vaccines and autism - wrong. The claim is widely discredited but only 45% of people know that it is false.

Health: people guess that only just over half of us are in good health - wrong. Actually the majority (75%) of Britons say their health is good or very good.

Technology: we estimate Facebook membership guessing that 74% of Britons aged 13+ have a Facebook account - wrong. In fact 58% are members.

Source: IPSO MORI Perils of Perception 2017 report

Which Oil to Use in Cooking

Dressings and drizzling
Extra virgin olive oil is cold-pressed, with a better flavour. Alternatives: pumpkin seed, walnut and avocado oils.

Frying
Olive oil has a neutral flavour and high smoking point (the temperature at which flavour is affected). Alternatives: rapeseed oil, butter, ghee or coconut oil.

Roasting
Rapeseed oil has a subtle flavour and doesn't break down at high temperatures. Alternative: olive oil.

Baking
Butter has a high fat content and rich flavour, giving excellent taste and texture to cakes and biscuits. Alternative: Olive spread.

Worst for frying
Sunflower or corn oils release chemicals linked to heart disease, cancer and dementia when heated to high temperatures.

END

Wills

Update your will regularly - check it every five years or so to make sure it still reflects your intentions.

Small changes (e.g. changing an executor or adding a legacy) can be made using a codicil to the original will - this costs less than a new will.

Bigger changes mean starting afresh. The more complex the will, the more expensive it will be. It will need to state that all previous wills are revoked. You must also destroy all old versions and tell your executor(s) where your new will is kept.

Reasons you need to change your will

• Getting married - any existing wills are revoked when you marry in England and Wales (but not in Scotland).
• Getting divorced - your married will is not revoked, but in England and Wales your ex won't benefit.
• New children or grandchildren - you may wish to include them as beneficiaries.
• Buying a house - it's a big purchase and it's good to mention it.
• Coming into some money? Say who will be the beneficiary.
• Losing a loved one? You'll need to update the will, especially if they are an executor.

Source: feature in Good Housekeeping, November 2017

Stay Safe Tips

While terror attacks are rare, there are some useful tips to staying safe.

On the street

• Don't walk chatting on your phone, looking at your screen or wearing headphones.
• Walk with your head up and stick to busy, lit-up areas. Don't wear obviously expensive clothes or jewellery. 
• If people who catch your eye continue to stare at you, they may be targeting you. (Most peopl will look away again.)
• If you feel threatened, dial 999 on your phone. If unsure, dial the number but don't send until things escalate.
• If attacked, don't curl into a ball; protect your vital organs and inner arms as stab wounds here can be fatal.
• Vehicle-ramming incidents. Walk along the inside of pavements with traffic facing you. 
• The impact of jumping into water from a bridge could kill you; if no other option, concentrate on keeping your mouth closed, your arms by your sides and legs bent to lessen the impact.

When travelling

• Research your destination. Are the countries bordering it unstable?
• Always check gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice.
• Put the emergency services of the country you are visiting into your phone.
• At your hotel, check fire escapes, entrances and exits.
• Walk around outside to familiarise yourself with the layout.
• In a hotel shooting, may be best to barricade yourself into your room. Use a wardrobe across the door first, then a bed and mattress. Take cover well away from the door.
• Gunfire sounds like a whip being cracked (not fireworks).
• On a beach and hear gunfire? Don't go into the sea, you'll be a slow moving target. Avoid your hotel.

Caught up in a terrorist attack?

• Run if you can, hide if you can't and tell the authorities what is going on.
• A crowd heading in one direction, is probably running away - join them.
• In a shopping mall, look for a fire exit.
• In direct sight of a gunman, move in a zigzag with your head down.
• At a concert venue, stay on your feet and get to a wall, then move along it, towards the stage area fire exits. Hide in a lockable storeroom and barricade yourself in.
• Stay silent till you are sure the threat has gone. 

Taken hostage?

• If you are British and taken hostage, the SAS will be in charge of the situation.
• Take shelter - sit in a corner (not along a wall, window or door, which could be SAS entry points). The same applies to the seats by the emergency exits of planes.

Protecting your family

• Be careful on Facebook and social media. Check your privacy settings and and be careful what you post. You don't want to tell everyone where you are and that you are not at home.
• If someone breaks into your home when you are on your own with the kids, go into one room and use a wedge shaped door jam. (Take one with you on holiday.)
• GPS trackers can be useful for vulnerable people like children and the elderly. They can be sewn into clothes, put onto a keyring or shoes.

Source: Feature by Chris Ryan in Good Housekeeping, November 2017