Monday, 11 May 2020

Covid-19 Severity and Deaths

In most cases (80%) there are mild symptoms, which typically recover in two weeks, or even no symptoms. A small study in China suggests those with mild symptoms have fewer virus particles in their bodies. 

A few people (estimated between 1% and 3% of those who catch the virus) are severely ill and require hospital treatment and may take 3 to 6 weeks to recover. In many of these cases, treatment with CPAP (Continuous Pressure Airway Pumps), may be sufficient medical assistance. Patients may be turned to the prone position as lying on the back puts pressure on the lungs. Giving oxygen early on seems to be the best treatment.

If this treatment is not effective, patients are put on a ventilator, which takes over the breathing. The patient is anaesthetised and a tube inserted through the mouth and into the trachea. As they are already very sick, and the majority have other medical conditions, the likelihood of death is high.

The time from symptom onset to death ranges from two to eight weeks. On 25 March 2020, the rate of death in confirmed cases was 4.5%. This average figure masks a range from 0.2% (young with no other health problems) to 15% (older with other health problems). 

Because many cases (especially early in the pandemic) are not confirmed, the extent of infections was initially under-reported. It was first thought that the fatality rate was likely to be 2%  but now (October 2020) the UK fatality rate is about 0.5%. Only a tiny fraction of these are under 45 years old, and the risk really increases after age 65.

The death rate for flu is 0.1%. However, flu vaccines are widely available and many countries have good vaccination programmes. If effective vaccines and vaccination programmes are developed for Covid-19, the fatality rate will drop.

Age is a high risk factor due to increased likelihood of patient having one or more other medical conditions. (In UK, more than half Covid-19 deaths occur in those over 80; around nine-tenths occur in those over 60.) While that puts things in perspective, it doesn't make it any easier to face if the deceased is a much loved relative or friend.

How you get immunity - a simple explanation (Zania Stamataki in The Guardian, 10 April 2020)

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