Axis of Power

For the past 25 years, the US has been the dominant world power. Now that we face a more assertive China and Russia, it is likely there will be more international tensions and the likelihood of military conflict is high. Chinese purchasing power now equals that of the US.

In 1900 Britian with its Empire was a dominant power. In 1940 the US and Russia battled for supremacy. In 2017, Asia and China are rising.

• However, the US has not noticed that their power is waning - Donald Trump and the Washington elite believe that the US must maintain military dominance.
• Trump believes that China has benefitted in trade over the US.
• Japan is taking an increasingly dark view of Chinese motivation to address old grievances (the two are old rivals). Other Asian countries are also concerned.
• Chinese island building policy - potential impact on international shipping.

Politically:

• People are increasingly favouring 'strong' leaders.
• Nationalism is on the rise in both China and Japan, especially among young people: this is worrying since what you believe at ages 15 to 25 is likely to stay your view life-long.
• North Korea is politically unstable. 
• China and Russia have similar attitudes on various issues, so there is an element of 'entente'.

Nuclear Issues

• Military might is crucial to Russian power, but there is a population decline. Tensions in the Crimea and Ukraine.
• Nuclear weapons are again an issue.
• Cyber warfare: Russian hacking may be a payback for Clinton's questioning of validity of recent Russian Duma elections.

Source: Source: Radio 4 programme series New World - episode Axis of Power broadcast Tue. 3rd Jan. 2017. Listen now http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b086tfbh or download podcast for later listening http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p04m7sl5, but not sure how long these will be available.