The Collapse of Complex Societies by Joseph Tainter, 1988.
[This book was analysed / reviewed in an article by John Harris in The Guardian. Have not read the book yet, but it sounds interesting.]
Joseph Tainter is a US
anthropologist and historian. While The Collapse of Complex Societies looks at historical periods, there are implied
parallels with more recent events.
Published in 1988, just before the fall of communism, Tainter argues that one key pattern applies to whole chunks of history, summarised by John Harris thus:. "The way that
increasingly complicated systems initially deliver big economic
benefits, only for diminishing returns to set in, as systems of power
and control become overstretched. Ever-increasing burdens are not
matched by material rewards, and popular resentment kicks in."
Tainter focuses on the demise of ancient Rome, the collapse of Mayan
civilization in the 9th century, the Minoans and Hittites, and the
Chinese Zhou dynasty. JH notes: "He identifies common features of these falls: “revolts and provincial breakaways”, the end of long-distance
trade, resource depletion, declining economic growth, and the point when societies are “able to do little
more than maintain the status quo”. Currencies become debased; “bridges
and roads are not kept up”. Precipitous changes in climate often
underlie what happens."
Tainter's thesis is that at certain points in history “declining returns make
complexity a less attractive problem-solving strategy”. Under such
conditions, the option to “sever the ties that link localised groups to a
regional entity” could gain traction. Considered in a global rather than a national view, that could summarise Brexit, and similar movements in Europe.
JH contacted Tainter, who agreed that complexity held the key to a lot
of current developments. “JT: The simpler past seems more attractive than
today’s complex reality, and so people vote [thanks to] inchoate
frustrations. They choose simplicity and locality over
complexity; identity over internationalism. Politicians promote
themselves by giving voice to this. Hence, in addition to Brexit, we
have calls for Scottish independence,
Catalan independence, and so forth.”
While imminent social collapse seems unlikely, JT writes: “Civilisations are fragile,
impermanent things.” And while he says that "It’s a common
belief, that our technological capacity, energy resources and
our knowledge of economics and history mean our civilisation should be
able to survive “whatever crises ancient and simpler societies found
insurmountable”, he also says we should remember the German classicist Ulrich
von Wilamowitz-Moellendorff’s view of the lessons of the Roman
empire: “Civilisation can die,
because it has already died once.”
Source: John Harris, The Lesson of Trump and Brexit: a society too complex for its people risks everything in The Guardian, 29 Dec. 2016. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/dec/29/trump-brexit-society-complex-people-populists
