A fascinating read that challenges the way we think.
Indian culture has a strong son preference. # There are roughly 3.5
million fewer females than males in the population, but women earn less, receive
worse education and health care. # Levels of domestic violence are high. ## The
spread of cable TV to Indian villages has been staggered; measuring changes social attitudes in
villages after TV becomes available is showing changes in all these factors when direct
government campaigns have failed.
Shark attacks between 1995 and 2005 were on average 60.3 world-wide.
The worst year had 79 attacks and the lowest recorded 46 attacks. There were an
average of 5.9 fatalities per year, with a high of 11 and a low of 3. Newspaper
coverage distorts our view of the situation.
A similar effect was seen following the ‘Spanish flu’ epidemic of 1918 in the USA. In addition to the death
toll, 25 million Americans caught flu and survived. This included one in three
women of child-bearing age. Infected women who were pregnant had babies who
were more likely to have significant ill-health over their whole lives.
Practice does make perfect. Exceptionally talented people typically put
in [around 10,000 hours] of practice. However, this deliberate practice has 3
key components: (a) setting specific goals, (b) obtaining immediate feedback
and (c) concentrating as much on technique as on outcome.
The bulk of US cancer therapy spending goes on chemotherapy. This is
effective in some cancers, including leukemia, lymphoma, Hodgkin’s disease and
testicular cancer, especially when these cancers are detected early. However,
in most other cases, chemotherapy is remarkably ineffective and there is a long
list of cancers for which chemotherapy has zero discernable effect, such as
multiple myeloma, soft-tissue sarcoma, melanoma of the skin and cancers of the
pancreas, uterus, prostate, bladder and kidney. In the US a typical lung cancer
regime costs more than $40,000 but extends life by an average of just two
months.
The age-adjusted US mortality rate for cancer is essentially unchanged
over the past half-century at around 200 deaths per 100,000 people. But this
flat mortality rate hides some good news as over the same period the
age-adjusted mortality rate for cardiovascular disease has plummeted from
nearly 600 people per 100,000 to well below 300. Many people, who in previous
generations would have died from heart disease, now live long enough to die
from cancer instead. Further analysis shows that for people aged 20 or younger,
mortality fell by more than 50% while for people aged 20 to 40 the mortality
fall was 20%.
Apathy. A much reported murder in March 1964 apparently showed that 38
people ignored the incident. A woman was stabbed in the back, her attacker fled
the scene when she screamed; the victim staggered to the rear of her apartment
block but the attacker returned, sexually assaulted her and stabbed her again,
leaving her to die. Much was made of the non-intervention of neighbours but (a)
the first attack happened at 3:20am when most people were asleep, (b) the
woman’s screams awoke some people but the pavement was so poorly lit that
little could be seen and (c) at least one man shouted ‘leave her alone’ at
which the attacker left. When the attacker returned, the victim was in the hall
of a building so out of sight of anyone. This was a case of poor journalism;
the above points were ignored and the figure of 38 people was the number of
people living in the block in which she died.
There is a correlation between US crime rates and exposure to TV. For
every extra year a young person was exposed to TV in their first 15 years,
there was a 4% increase in the number of property crime arrests in later life
and a 2% increase in violent crime arrests. The effect is largest for children
who had extra TV exposure from birth to 4 years. The reason for the correlation
is not clear. The analysis was possible as (c.f. India and cable TV in
villages) TV reception was rolled out in a staggered fashion.
Altruism – experiments seem to show that altruism is innate in humans.
However, this does not hold up in real-life situations for the following
reasons. (1) People who participate in psychology experiments tend to be
students who are very co-operative. (2) The fact that people knew they are
being observed probably influenced their behaviour.
Unintended consequences often arise from specific decisions. (1) Volume
charging for rubbish collections was intended to encourage people to produce
less rubbish and/or recycle. The actual effect was to increase fly-tipping and
rubbish burning (also increasing burns accidents). (2) A Jewish statute
recorded in the Bible required creditors to forgive all debts every seventh
year. The actual effect was for creditors to make loans in year 1 and demand
repayment in years 5 and 6.
Anti-theft devices for cars. Those that are visible (e.g. steering
wheel locks) lessen the risk of your car being stolen but raise the risk that
your neighbour’s car will be instead. An alternative device is a small radio
transmitter hidden somewhere in or beneath the car where it cannot be seen. If
the car is stolen, police can remotely activate the transmitter and follow the
signal. The effect is that for every additional percentage point of cars fitted
with this device, overall car thefts fall by as much as 20%, since the thief
cannot predict which cars have the device. At present the device is relatively
expensive.
Hand hygiene in hospitals is a critical factor in preventing the spread
of infections. Compliance by staff at a US hospital was nearly 100% after
photographs of hand prints showing bacteria were used as screen savers on staff
computer screens.
Honesty box money (e.g. for coffee) left went up to nearly three times
as much when a photo of a pair of human eyes was added to the price list.
On alternate weeks, photos of flowers on an allotment were used instead, showing no honesty effect.
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