Youth Turnout
Since the vote, detailed polling by Opinium has been analysed by Professor Michael Bruton and Dr Sarah Harrison of the London School of
Economics. The new study found that of those registered to vote, the turnout was:
64% (18-24); 65% (25-39); 66% (40-54); 74% (55-64); 90% (65 and over).
It is thought that more than 70% of young voters chose Remain. Prof.
Bruter noted that if 16- and 17-year-olds had been allowed to vote, the
result would almost certainly have been closer, reducing the ability of
the Leave camp to claim a clear victory. The incorrect 36% widely reported since the poll was based on data compiled at the last election, and has allowed Brexit
campaigners to say young people cannot claim that they were betrayed by
older pro-Brexit voters, as almost two-thirds did not bother to vote.
Source: EU Referendum: youth turnout almost twice as high as first thought. Guardian Online, 10th July 2016
How the age profile of the UK affected the voting
The population of the United Kingdom at 30 June 2015 is estimated to be
65,110,000. The older section of the population continues to grow, with over 11.6 million (17.8% of
the population) aged 65 and over and 1.5 million (2.3% of the
population) aged 85 and over in mid-2015. [This means that this age group, which is the most likely to vote, has a big influence on voting.]
Source: Population estimates for UK, England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, mid-2015.
EU funding influence on funding
Ebbw Vale had the largest majority in Wales for Leaving, but has been in receipt of more grants from the EU than probably any other town in the UK. A conservative estimate is that the Welsh enjoy a net gain of £245m from the EU.
In Northern Ireland, the Catholic nationalist population and business and academic communities voted overwhelmingly Remain, in support of European institutions that have helped underpin the Peace Process. Protestant unionist and loyalist communities voted Leave as a means of solidifying British sovereignty.
Influence of big funders of political parties on the vote
The campaigns for Leave and Remain both benefitted from donations from individuals. Of all money lent or donated, the Remain campaign received 46% (and 48% of the vote) and the Leave campaign received 54% (and 52% of the vote). The top donor, stockbroker Peter Hargreaves, supported Leave.
Link to 'Traditional values'
After the vote, there was speculation that class played a part: professionals living and working in big cities, especially London (who
voted Remain), versus working class people in smaller towns, especially
in the north of England (who voted Leave). But it seems that using a person's class status and their income to guess whether or not they voted Remain, gives around 55% accuracy,
while a simple guess would give 50% accuracy". Think tank Nesta believes there were other, better predictors.
The British Election Study's internet panel survey of 2015-16 asked a
sample of over 24,000 individuals about their views on [the death
penalty] and whether they would vote to leave the EU. The results (restricted to White British respondents) show almost no statistically
significant difference in EU vote intention between rich and poor. By
contrast, the probability of voting Brexit rises from around 20% for
those most opposed to the death penalty to 70% for those most in favour.
Wealthy people who back capital punishment back Brexit. Poor folk who
oppose the death penalty support Remain.
Ben Shimshon of Britain Thinks, a company which advises businesses
and political parties on how to communicate with the public, broadly
agrees. What united Leave voters in focus groups in the
run-up to the referendum, he says, was support for a whole set of
"traditional" values. "They tended to value things like order,
stability and safety against things like openness, modernity and other
social-liberal values that were more popular among Remain voters. Often
it's about harking back to the past - sometimes a feeling that they
don't belong to the present."
Source: Alex Burton, BBC News item, 17 July 2016.
Local voting figures shed new light on EU referendum
A more indepth analysis of voting patterns in the EU referendum confirm that education, voter age, ethnicity and areas of deprivation had an effect on voter choices. (There is a link to a spreadsheet that gives results by council wards but is not complete as some councils refused to supply the data and others simply made a total count for a county. Sadly Wiltshire is one of those, so I cannot check how Bradford-on-Avon South and Bradford-on-Avon North voted.)
Source: Martin Rosenbaum, BBC News item, 6 February 2017
Voting for next Conservative Leader / Prime Minister
When Mr Cameron became leader in 2005, a total of 253,000 Conservative
Party members were eligible to vote in the election. Today, the entire
party membership is little more then the 134,446 who voted for Mr
Cameron in 2005. The decision about who leads our country now rests
with a remarkably small number of people, a fact that will only help to
expose the next prime minister to arguments that she lacks legitimacy
and should engineer an early election. [In the event, Andrea Leadsom pulled out of the contest, so Theresa May became leader of the party and Prime Minister without a vote.]
Telegraph Monday 11th July 2016.
